chopper 918

Holy CRAP! 12z WRF Sounding

70kt Wind Barbs!

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2016123112/images_d2/kpdx.99.0000.snd.gif

Yeah, Portland will be cold and dry! Get your chap stick ready. D**n!

GFS MOS still shows temps close to 40 tomorrow for Seattle and Portland as well.

 

It also shows 29 at PDX on Monday... but 34 at SEA.

Portland and especially the hills around Portland will do very well with this setup.

Over a foot of snow PDX Metro by next weekend.

Map?

Probably best to find something else to do. Maybe the models will turn around.

This is probably worse than the 2011/2005 model collapses. This is literally on the eve of the event. DJ even said these events were "LOCKED IN" at this point.

Here's an idea. Step away from the computer screen and stop worrying about whether frozen water droplets will fall from the sky at your location or not.

Outlier guys. R-E-L-A-X

Thank you!!!

This is a complete sh**show tonight. Good Lord.

I'm just messing. But this run is quite a bit milder.

So you're saying I won't see snow at my location?

 

http://www.sherv.net/cm/emoticons/fighting/setting-himself-on-fire.gif

Cold air a little slower to move in...Or it just doesn't get quite as cold, we'll see...

Hmm...that would be odd for that to happen here in the great NW.

Maybe not. Maybe 50 deg rain with lots of wind. Starting with snow and ice though.

Shhh!!!

Yeah, this run goes balls deep.

Yes it does...

 

00Z ECMWF snow through Sunday evening.     Almost totally dry for Sunday night into Monday.   

 

 

Like I said earlier...dusting at best.  But at least we'll have a good chance at a cold anomaly for the month!!

What will it take to get that 974mb low to make landfall in south/central OR coast and track east, and then northeast and then just stall ?

 

Giant fans.

Major transition for next weekend on this run.

ICE!! Yay!!

Maybe.

No.

Maybe a flurry on New Year's Day, then cold and dry. Not all that exciting as all of our backyards will look as they do now except for being under blue bird skies.

If I can somehow score 2-3" of snow I bet I could make the 0-5 range...

The problem is a T-1" looks likely.

It wants to moderate pdx at day 9 some. Likely at least zr. I couldn't imagine it not being more snowy than that with that cold air entrenched.

Shows about -5 850's at day 9 then around -9 at day 10. Not a ZR sounding at all.

True, its far enough away that I'm not super worried about the details. This looks like the most idiot proof snow pattern lock I've seen in a long time but I'm still paranoid that we somehow get out of this without significant snow and we waste the amazing opportunity.

 

Though my gut feeling is that this will be one of the greatest prolonged periods of regionwide cold and snow that we've seen in years. It just kind of has that look. We can't really ask for a much better high level pattern.

Prolonged cold yes, but dry too which will piss a bunch off.

So, what, highs in the mid 30's?

Probably upper 20's to low 30's for the Seattle area.

Give me 28 and snow as opposed to 20 and sun.

So what does this all mean for snow at Andrew's location?

PDX not making 26/27 high temp with east wind and major blast.

Maybe colder.

Not looking good for more than a spotty Tr-1" for most of us. I've made my peace with it.

Too early to make any accurate accumulation predictions.

Anything beyond hour 120 isn't going to be completely accurate anyway. Chill.