chopper 918

In western OR no lowland snow occurred in 2007. And I would even call the Gale storm rather tropical temp wise. But I hear the mountains got pounded in that one.

Yeah, 2007 sucked balls.  So did 1998.

Yes, we need to see the goods within 6-7 days before we can consider it realistic.

PDX radar is pretty impressive right now.   Good thing they got it fixed.  

Too bad the Oregon Cascades aren't getting much.  Is the band supposed to move East?

That's the nature of forecasting. It would certainly be a different job if I only had to come in on Monday for a few hours and the traders would have a highly-accurate forecast for the next 1-2 weeks.

Chris, do you work for PGE by chance?

It might snow this winter.

It might not too...

Hour 300 looks good on the 18Z.  LOL.

Got down to a bone chilling 41!

Yep. A good cold pool brings surprises. And it could happen again.

This super nino is acting nothing like a regular nino, so I'd say nothing is off the table and models nor forecasters can reliably predict what is going to happen a week from now let alone the rest of the winter.

18Z GFS looks much more like the ECMWF than the 12Z GFS.  More evidence that nothing really cold will be happening next week.

 

Starting to feel like our window of opportunity is passing with a strong Nino in place.  

 

Of course the pattern is just strange enough to keep some small hope alive down the road.

It's January 5...

 

I seem to remember you saying that there was nothing to be interested in within the foreseeable future as you thought we were in for a long dry inversion period after our little snow event on Sunday, the 27th too.  We all know what happened a week later...

Look like Seahawks might be going back to MN for a rematch.

Hopefully with the same outcome.

Still only 27 here in Beaverton on top of Cooper Mountain.

Andrew I'm dying to know what's happening at your location. You haven't reported in nearly 20 mins.

27 here in Beaverton.

Mark Nelsen did pretty well on this one.

Doesn't he always?

Just snow here in Beaverton.

The WRF gives Portland and the westside of the metro area some light accumulations tomorrow. I am also feeling pretty good about this Jesse.

Another rain shower here.

Ahhh... so the Lions win today was key.   Did not factor that in.   What if GB and Detroit end with a tie game and Seattle and Dallas win out?   Then Dallas would be the number one seed at 12-4.

Correct. No ties please.

Wrong... if we are tied with the Cowboys for the number one seed then we lose out (both at 12-4) The Cowboys beat us. Remember??

 

If we win out... Dallas wins next week... and Green Bay loses... then Dallas is the number one seed.

 

Ironically... if there is a 3-way tie between Seattle, Green Bay, and Dallas then we take it. This is the most likely scenario but we have to cheer for Green Bay next week.

 

But if we are tied with only Dallas then they get it.

Wrong. If Seattle wins out, they are the number 1 seed period. If Dallas wins out they will be in a three way tie with Seattle due to the fact that GB plays Detroit. GB or Detroit will be 12-4. Seattle owns all tie breakers in a three way tie.

Paul, that 7" is in addition to what we have now at PDX ending Sat afternoon?

Could be some serious freezing rain at 0C in Portland.

 

I think Salem is just plain rain by Saturday afternoon.

Freezing rain Sat. night for PDX?

FWIW... the latest version of the HRRR model keeps all precip south of Portland tomorrow.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2014020604&plotName=1ref_t1sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t1

The what model? Is that one that is run off a Commodore 64 from somebody's mom's basement?

I think Q13 with MJ and that other guy is worse. Oh and of course Rich Marriott hates snow. =)

Rich Marriott? That's really one of your weathermen's name? That's as bad as Ron Burgundy!