CloudJunkie

My spot in Lakewood hasn't gotten any snow this year. Probably not T-Town either, he's only four miles north of me. It's getting kind of impressive how we keep dodging these late season squalls.

Dumping a rain/snow mix in Lakewood right now!

4 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

are we done now 

15 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The wildlife west of the cascades are shittting there pants right now. It will be really rough on the deer.

I saw a lot of lethargic songbirds at the park today. Normally they would fly away when approached, but in this cold you can just walk right up to them and they don't care.

My backyard has dropped from 24 to 21 degrees in the last hour. Sunny and windy.

18 minutes ago, T-Town said:

The clouds are finally getting interesting, in fact I think I saw that same cloud! I'm about 4 miles south of you in Oakbrook.

There are clouds all around the horizon, but the sky's been blue here all day long. WTF

Getting a rain/sleet mix in Lakewood just now @ 40 degrees. 925 is 31 degrees.

I'm super excited for this frozen/sunny weather. Should make for some sparkly landscape photos, even without snow.

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Almost all of the EPS members are south on Saturday now. 

 

There's still a huge amount of variability in these members.

10 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Pop quiz what do the NWS Portland use to determine their forecasts (hint it starts w an M and ends with an S)

Magic beans?

19 minutes ago, skywatcher said:

I spy with my little eye a cold front 

Just hit our house in Lakewood like a freight train! Cat is scared.

12 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

I think he really, really likes to be right. And that's hard in meteorology. You'll notice that his post from a few days ago mentioned the possibility of snow in the lowlands, but didn't commit. Which does make sense because there is uncertainty. But he doesn't want to be wrong (who does?) so he wants to temper expectations with lots of talk of uncertainty but still mention the possibility and then make predictions when things are much closer. 

 

It makes sense, but it also feels kind of defensive at times, especially when he makes declarations like the ground being too warm or whatever. The models can be wrong, but he can't be.

Same thing happened in geology when plate tectonics was discovered. There was a whole generation of old professors who just couldn't handle the fact that their doctorate research was now obsolete.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geosyncline

No more 50-burgers!! I'm now on Team Frost Taco.

34 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

GFS was right on it if I remember. No one believed it.

"Only" got up to 108 IMBY, but the GFS was surprisingly on the money.

I haven't seen this mentioned but just recently the USDA re-evaluated its plant hardiness zones. Seattle got bumped up from Zone 8b to Zone 9a, which means that the expected annual low temps are between 20 and 25 degrees. I'm thinking they're gonna end up with egg on their face and will end up reverting the map next year. People in my neighborhood have been planting windmill palm trees left and right, which are supposedly a hardy palm species. But I don't think they'll survive what's coming next week!

12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I want both a massive snowstorm and windstorm at the same time! 

Windstorms are fun until you try to go hiking in the spring and there are 500 logs across the trail!

11 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

What a dramatic change from the 12Z run to the 18Z GFS run.

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Now that is a holy **** stat is if ever there was one.

Now combine that with the 116 burger that Portland got in June 2021. Mediterranean climate types don't play around.

5 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

This is a forum for weather nerds who really really love snow. Let people enjoy things.

I love all our weather, except for fluorescent gray overcast. The dense fog we had recently was super awesome.

Who else thinks this system will shut down the passes?

31 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

We all know there are probably like 5-10 lurkers right now who have been reading the thread but have never posted. During the 2019 event, I checked this site religiously  every day before joining like 2 years later. Before the event starts, I challenge you to create an account and say hello! No professional met experience required, but of course those are always appreciated. So if you live in WA, OR, ID, MT, or even northern CA join us...and share your snow totals later.

I've been enjoying these threads since the 2021 heat wave, but my background is in geology not meteorology.  I don't know enough about atmospheric oscillation phases and whatnot to have anything productive to add to the conversation. I read Cliff Mass's book about PNW weather, but it doesn't go into that kind of detail. Any textbook recommendations?

Wow, the fog is coming back in force! Gonna try some moody landscape photography tomorrow morning.

2 hours ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Unpopular opinion incoming but I'm rooting for whatever weather will lessen wildfires. Even if it means little snow in the lowlands. Those fires in Canada last year were pretty devastating. I'll sacrifice a few years of lowland snow for mountain snow and historic average precip in the wild to keep things more balanced. 

I know what you mean. In the last five years we've had three towns burn to the ground: Paradise, CA; Detroit, OR; and Lytton, BC. Washington's luck can't hold out forever. Packwood in particular is a deathtrap, with forested neighborhoods only accessible by a single bridge over the Cowlitz River.