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WeatherGeek2022

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Posts posted by WeatherGeek2022

  1. 4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

    Unfortunately the last two runs of the GFS are just about an absolute best case semi-realistic scenario. Never what you want to see 5 days out. In reality, you really wanna see the idiot models like the GFS spitting out impossibly great solutions at that timeframe just to give yourself a little more safety netting.

    sad if we're looking at just brutal cold and a non "snow event".

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  2. 3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

    Canā€™t say Iā€™d be too upset if it worked out this way. A couple Highs around freezing with trace-1ā€ of snow. Pretty similar to how December played out here locally. Just from the perspective of this location this winter May end up pretty similar to 2013-2014. 2 big cold blasts in December and February but only a few total inches of snow that winter. That winter was fairly dry too. This is just an analog for this specific location not for the whole region.Ā 

    no 2 winters are exactly alike ;D

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  3. 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

    We spend so much time on ridiculous GFS snowfall maps that pretty much never verify.Ā  Ā When has the GFS ever had the pattern exactly right through 384 hours?Ā  Ā Not to mention its poor resolution and over-estimating snow totals even in the short term.

    Verbatim... the GFS on Monday showed that I would get 24-28 inches of snow yesterday in my area.Ā  Ā  We got 2 inches.Ā  Ā It showed Snoqualmie Pass would get 36 inches and they actually got 15 inches.Ā  Ā That was just errors at 24 hours out... now multiply that times 16 more days.Ā  Ā Ā šŸ˜€

    GFS thrives to entertainĀ 

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