Corncob

Alright David Barts, we know you’re in here. Come get your congratulations.

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

I guess I'm 'spoiled' by NWS Spokane.  sure they occasionally bust, but are generally good forecasters.  that's a shame for an area as large as Seattle to suffer if that's truly the case?

Spokane has great AFDs- even if they don’t verify, they explain the logic.

Seattle AFDs are barely anything- the only met who posts worthwhile discussion is McMillian… maybe why he always signs his AFDs.

30 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Pretty much all models were predicting one of the strongest windstorms in Seattle history with a strong low tracking over the Olympics and bent back occlusion roaring right through the Puget Sound.  NWS warned accordingly and had pie on their face when the low deepened more than modeled, tracked further offshore, and it was hardly even breezy. 
 

The public lost a lot of their confidence in Mets after that and ever since the NWS has been extremely gun shy about predicting anything severe until it’s actually started happening. 

I had my third kid the night of Oct 12, 2016 at Swedish in Seattle.

The nurses said I could claim to “not feel right” if I wanted to stay at the hospital and miss the storm.

I went home, and was treated to a little breeze. IIRC, coastal areas had 100mph gusts, though, right?

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Some conflicting reports out there.

Icon looks fine

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

LOL that'll change.
Watch. That precip south will move up (it always does). Plus a few other snow makers that'll pop up over the next few days.

Not to mention that the sno-king line up to Arlington is often rife with convergence zone snow where none had been predicted. 

3 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

What? Very little snow for Seattle

It’s very normal for Seattle to show a snow hole like that.

20 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

NWS Sacramento has the best graphics for the mountains every year. They show all the state routes and I-5 against a mountain graphic with places shown by elevation.

I also like NWS Spokane's winter page. I think all NWS offices in the NW have one EXCEPT SEATTLE. https://www.weather.gov/otx/winter is Spokane's. Just replace otx with pqr -pdx redirects there too (Portland), mfr (Medford), pdt (Pendleton), mso (Missoula), boi (Boise), but SEW shockingly has no winter weather page. Places like SF Bay or LA don't need one and Sacramento does a very good job anyway of covering their mountains. But Seatte should have a winter page. It shows the full range of probabilities in addition to their official forecast up to 90% percentile and 10% percentile.

I’m often really impressed with Spokane’s forecast discussion page. I find it both more entertaining and informative than Seattle’s.

I feel for NWS Seattle, though, they have an obscenely diverse area to cover in their discussions.

7 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Check out this improvement. I have no idea if it was posted or not. Similar for Boeing field.

Could we see it for PAE Paine Field?

14 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I really wish this forum had proper archives from past events. I would love to comb through past big successful events and big rug pulls and make charts of what the ensemble means were showing for each day leading up to it. Would be cool to see some actual data for when the many pullbacks we've had actually occur. I *feel* like it's usually always about 5-6 days out when the models do this, but I want to see the real numbers behind it. It would be interesting to know what percent of the time the models will rug pull at this point and then still return to something close to what they were showing closer to 7+ days out.

Surely we can collectively fund a grad student at this point?! 

12 minutes ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

Latest NWS discussion dropping snow chances

If NWS is already talking about it, they must be worried for the worst . They don’t predict snow til it’s snowing!

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Thing about tornadoes is you have no idea if one will impact you until it’s basically right there. Can’t really say that about any other weather phenomena…and tornadoes are also the most likely to kill you if you encounter one. Worst of the worst.

Tornados are hell, but flash floods are the most deadly weather phenomenon, I believe.