Tornadobrah89

Just found out this tornado had 190 mph peak winds but only 114 mph winds at the surface

Must've been some really dark soil to cause such blackness - like a cloud rising from a petroleum blaze or tire fire! Sheesh. And yes, you can tell it's large by comparison of trees at that distance. Ratings are subjective out in the open due to lack of structure damage to "rate" a twister by.

It looks a tad smaller than the andover tornado which was an f5. The tornado doesn't look that violent but it's massive and very tall. I'd imagine it would have to have some serious winds to lift that debris so far up. You can't even see the base of the cloud because it's so tall

 

This is what you are talking about, right?

Yeah. Apparently it was rated f2 it looks like your typical f4 stovepipe though. It's hard to tell how violent or big it is in the video

This was one of the most spectacular aND eerie looking tornadoes ever caught on video imo. But what was it rates and what do you think the wind speeds were in it? I heard it was an f2 but also heard it was a landspout tornado. Looked to me like a legit ef4 tornado

That's not low-level shear...

How much lower level shear do we have then?

The low level shear is garbage.

It looks like 40-50 knots in Oklahoma. I always thought that was plenty to get some tornados

Because shear isn't the only thing that tornadoes need??

I'd still think it should be a low-medium threat giving the dew points in the low 60s, decent shear and isolated super cells in the afternoon. Not saying there is a great chance for tornados but I think it's going to be more favorable than they think. I can see this system over performing based on the nws forecast

I dont understand why they're saying the tornado probabilities are low when there is going to be super cells with 45-50 knots of shear. Is there something going on that I'm missing?

Do Forbes still has tor con at 4 for Kansas and Oklahoma and we're still 2 days out. I think if there are areas of clearing storms could be worst. Wouldn't be surprised to see tor con a 5 by tomorrow or monday

These models are all over the place. Gfs is showing further east and the euro and nam are showing it more northwest. But the nws has issued a huge swath of a 10% chance of 4+ inches even further west. The forecasts are changing every 4 hours with this storm.

Nam has supercells all the way up into central and east Missouri

Nah, I don't see much room for a SE shift at this point. The 12z GEM didn't even make sense either.

I don't think the last mw storm was supposed to go south either or have that much cold air. I'm surprised anyone is putting faith in these models until we are inside 24 hours honestly

The Canadian is showing the snow way south. Could it be possible this thing goes much further south? I think it's much easier for them to forecast the severe side of this storm but who knows where the snow is going to set up? Or how far south the snow band will go.

Dr Forbes mentioned a possible tornado outbreak in southern Missouri and dixie alley. This storm is going to be crazy

Lol gary is going to be right. This storm is going to weaken a bit and shift south east. Missouri and southern iowa be prepared

Seems like everyone has a bias for this storm because it's so massive. We won't know until 24 hours out and it still might throw a curve

Gary lezak saying a 70% chance this storm goes south and hammers kc

If they are forecasting severe weather in dixie alley how is the snow going to be all the way up in central Nebraska and northern iowa? I just don't see it happening. The heaviest snow is going to be in northern missouri and southern iowa. There is just too much cold air behind this storm

Temps are looking colder and colder. I still expect this too move further south

The low is going to go through southern Missouri give or take 100 miles. Book it. Most of the models are showing this. It is always colder on the back end of these storms just like the last one. Pretty sure kc and Chicago will get slammed but I would not be surprised to see it further south. Models are already pushing it more south and we're still 7 days out

Kc news is saying this storm is going to shift way south. I'm pretty sure it will too because winter storms tend to do so. It's always colder on the back end of these storms than forecasted. I think this could shift as far south as central Missouri and into the ozarks