Stormgeek

Been snowing light to moderate for most of the day. Roads are a disaster even his far north. Can't imagine down south a bit. NWS sitting on around 4 to 5 on the next system. Fun, fun, fun.

We might be quite low in the snow department this year, but this snow-thaw-freeze cycle has left the snow base here very solid. Probably have around 3-4 inches of glacier. Hoping to see things happen this week too! Side streets and parking lots are a nightmare up here with the freezing rain that fell. That stuff can stay away.

Hoping that 4 inches I said I would be happy with at least materializes...

very tough forecast for the metro

Indeed it is. Going to all come down to the pivot and how far north the shield can reach.

Not liking these radar trends so far. A small batch of snow came through, but just south of MSP looks primed to steal the show unless the radar fills in. Quite a bit of dry air to the west.

We’re outside of global model time. Go with the short term models and radar. Everyone else south and east of us is still hanging on globals since the system is still a ways out for many of them.

The sun has disappeared. Snow quickly advancing in.

Ah, thanks for the clarification!

GFS running away from MSP and the NAM's/HRRR holding pretty steady. Model chaos when event is almost starting!

Is it just me or does it seem like the NAMily is underplaying that snow shield in North MN / East ND?

15z. What the?? Lol.

Hahaha, well ok then. Wonder what parameter has gone haywire.

Yes likely overdone. Just looking at trends for this area.

Yeah trends being the friend are always nice!

SREF 09z plumes with a dramatic increase at MSP. Mean up 11.3” with 3 big dogs over 20”. Only 2 models under 5” with most between 7-15”.

 

Model chaos

 

Seems a bit overdone to me, but hey I am so down if something like that ends up happening!

NWS calling for the coldest temps that I have seen in my lifetime. The afternoon AFD had mention of 20-30 below and windchills possibly reaching -60. Excited to see the wrath of Minnesota winter weather!

Meh. If it happens it happens, if not I move on. It’ll snow, just a matter of how much.

Can't agree more. Been so meh all winter that it is turning into a "whatever happens, happens" kind of winter.

GFS 12z (using kuchera) rocks us here. Would be more than happy to just have an event where we get 4 inches and temps aren't 32 at the onset. However, could do without this insane cold due to work concerns.

Always fun seeing a model that paints a snow hole over you while both north and south get slammed. This whole "2 storms, 1 north, 1 south" act is getting a bit silly. Current conditions on the ground are about 1.5 inches snow on top of an inch of ice on non-concrete. But hey at least it is going to get unbearably cold! x_x On a brighter note let's hope that clipper can deliver the goods!

28F and a few flurries starting here. The precip associated with the northern piece is farther south than modeled. Areas in the winter storm warning north of the twin cities might bust hard. Meanwhile -9F in Fargo. Here comes the blast.

I must have stolen Tom's magnet... That thin band is absolutely ripping right on top of me.

This is incredible. Sitting about 1 mile north of the rain snow line... Wunderground radar shows the freezing line retreating by about 10 miles and it started "snowglobing" outside after raining lightly for a couple hours. Hope it stays this way.

Unfortunate that the rain has to be here. 8 inches would have been a breath of fresh air.

Okay, I hope everyone had a nice holiday! Looking at the models again I am rather disappointed. However, it looks like I am sitting directly on the predicted rain/snow line so any shift south, say 10-20 miles and I could be looking at a healthy event. A disappointment with hopefulness for a silver lining!

Looks like a mess. High of 36; just gonna punt and enjoy the holidays here. See everyone after Christmas!

00z GFS is an eye sore. Yikes.

Taking a look through the 12z EPS members, its scary similar at this distance to how the Nov 29th - Dec 2nd storm evolved. Almost an identical track through the KC region and into IA/WI. Take a gander at this snowfall mean...that is about as juiced up as you see this model 5-7 days out.

 

C/N NE into Minny special???

Wow, is that a mean of near 12? What the heck. Obviously means close to nothing at this range, but nice to at least see something like that after this recent pattern!

This thing is snail speed right now, my goodness.

According to my neighbor that has lived here for 30 years, this is the first time in 20+ years that anyone has ice fished on our lake in November. Pretty awesome. The irony is that the lack of snow up until last night had aided in the ice formation.

The Mississippi was nearly completely frozen over this morning when I walked by! Just had a small piece of open water. Didn't get close enough to see how thick the ice was.

I think we’re too far north, although a few models make me a little hesitant to punt. But I’m close. Rochester will do well.

Yup definitely too far north for me here. Will punt after 00z.