ChicagoToSeattle

Whatever blew through Seattle today was intense -- not your typical PNW storm. We had lightning and ominous clouds (like a Midwest storm) if that's what is coming then I could see an intense storm on the horizon. Hopefully enough to break the Chicago snowfall record

With the amount of ice on Lake Michigan, it will be a cruel Spring for many in the city and near the lake suburbs. March, April and May all have prevailing winds from the Northeast. That's why you'll get days in the 40's in the loop and 60s in the Western suburbs. This year inevitably will be worse as the lake is certain to be in the 30s come April. That's mighty cold and is the reason why I rate Spring in Chicago as my least favorite season (2012 being the once in a lifetime exception) Two years ago, it was 68 on 3/6 and we hit the 80s on eight different days -- crazy

I would totally agree with that, especially the American models, but all of them in general have overdone precip a lot this year.

Snowstorms this year have been a mixed bag of systems -- many clipper types which we know are difficult to model. The traditional synoptic systems that tap into a verified moisture source such as the GOM have been pretty much on target. For example last week's rain in Chicago was pretty close to predicted precip levels.

There was an interesting post by a well-regarded met out here, Cliff Mass that details the difficulties NWS models face because of a lack of computer horsepower http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/02/where-is-national-weather-services-new.html . Geeky, interesting stuff.

As I've gained to appreciate via Tom's advocacy for the LRC, I must say that the modeling and tracking of this system seems matched up well with the early January storm that socked Chicago. 

here's what Skilling said

"Contradictory indications frm models Sun. Model jet stream structure fcst suggests sending snow south is wrong. We're sticking wi snow Sun"

Looks like the ORD high was 31, that means the potential exists for a 17 day streak of below freezing when it finally warms up next Monday. 

PS-- the model handling aside from the NAM for this one was whack. The GGEM early in sniffed one out but otherwise the NAM was the only one to be close. Will be interesting to do a post-mortem to understand why they had this one so off?

You know it's a great snow year when ORD hits the monthly snow averages by the 5th of a month. Jealous that the winter I move away is the winter that resembles the old school winters I remember well. Onward to 90 inches

Meteorologist Gary Lezak (from Kansas City) developed the"Lezak Recuring Cycle" also known as the LRC.  He figured out a unique wx pattern that develops every year during the Fall around October 1 thru mid November.  This pattern then cycles through the next 10 months.  Each LRC Cycle is usually around 52-58 days long and you can use this tool to predict storm systems, troughs, ridges, etc.  It has been spot on this year tracking storms and we are seeing it come into fruition once again with the storms poised to hit our region for the next 2 weeks.  The most active part of the cycle is among us and should last throughout February.

thanks! I recall reading about this a couple of years ago on the Accuweather boards. My memory was that it has validity but it was way off in the 2011-12 winter?

The LRC had back to back systems in December so I'm not surprised the 12z GFS is showing back to back major snowstorms in our region. 

 

Edit: Isn't it amazing how powerful this tool can be to predict storm systems weeks in advance???

quick question -- What is the LRC?

Wagons North/North West anyone?

I was thinking the same thing -- any time the east coast ridge pops, the models take a while to understand the strength of the high. It's a classic pattern for the last several years with some exceptions such as the GHD Blizzard. The Euro had a bead on that one nearly a week out

What do we have to beat to get to 1st, 2nd or 3rd?

 here you go -- 

RANK AMOUNT MONTH AND YEAR

---------------------------------

1) 42.5" JANUARY 1918

2) 40.4" JANUARY 1979

3) 33.3" DECEMBER 1951

*4) 33.1" JANUARY 2014

5) 32.3" JANUARY 1978

What is ORD sitting at right now on the season?

48.2 for season

January is 4th snowiest month all time

does anyone know the estimates for how deep and far the snow cover will be at this time? That can be a good indicator for tracking how far north the low will track

00z Euro Monday night lows....low/mid 20's subzero!!!  Chiberia round #2!!!!  Lake Michigan will become alive once again...

Yikes, those are "barbarically" cold temps as Skilling likes to say. Speaking of Lake Michigan, here's the ice coverage as of a couple of days ago. As this winter progresses, the lake snow machine may start slowing down due to ice. Lake Erie is already at a point where lake effect is basically zilch.

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/lice_00%20_7_.gif

Interesting to see the models all over the place -- typical for clippers and for that matter any snowfall event this season.

Does anyone know how/if they sample clipper systems? Do the models have the same problem they do with systems that are coming over the top from the Pacific because of a lack of sampling? Just curous

JB has a brief write-up on Weatherbell, to summarize an extended period (16 days) of temp departures -12 to -20 below normal from Chicago through the mid Atlantic. He calls it "incomprehensible cold"  Those below zero days will continue to add up in Chicago. The record for a winter I believe is 25 days and I think ORD is around 12 right now. Another interesting record could be approached!

The snows that winter were almost all classic southwest storms--very few clippers and almost no lake snow

Yes, there was probably lake enhancement as those lows traversed across IL and IN but from what I can remember they were all SW-based and moisture rich storms. As a ten year-old I learned about Pan Handle Hooks and Clippers too. This year is the first one where I can remember the lake playing such a definitive role in snowfall totals for Chicago. Snowfall totals for MSN and MKE are 10+ inches below ORD and that can be attributed to LES. 

Hi All -- First time poster, but long time lurker. I may have recently moved to the Pacific Northwest but I will always follow the weather in Chicago/MKE.

Thought it would be interesting to see where this month's snow at ORD ranks relative to the snowiest months:

1. 1918: 42.5

2. 1979: 40.4

3. 1978: 32.3

4. 2014: 29.7

5. 1999: 29.6

I vividly remember both 78 and 79 as that is when my interest in weather (snow in particular) really took shape. Given that there are still 10 days remaining in the month, the possibility of hitting #3 is very good.

Any guesses where ORD will end up?