VMB443

Here are some preliminary totals from Milwaukee area - unfortunately I was in the 4” range!

Nice.

Coming down like rain would fall - we seem to have missed - as much as I’d like more than what we will end up getting, it’s nice to get it during the daylight hours. I’m making a big pot of chili which seems appropriate with the snow and coming cold. This is winter.

From Milwaukee NWS: 

“Milwaukee had 23.3" of snow in January...the most in January since 2005! 

Another fun fact: While Milwaukee currently has it's highest snow depth in 10 years (16"), the max  snow depth for the calendar year of 2020 was only 5". This was the lowest in a year since 1953!”

1 hour ago, Tom said:

MKE area is showing solid 8-13" reports...I believe it, those bands off the lake looked like it was puking snow earlier this morning.

I think I hit close to 10” - it’s still snowing - not heavily, but it slowly adds up. I haven’t seen the snow this high in years. Roads are still messy - running out of places to go with it.

Milwaukee just bumped me up from 5-9 to 6-10 not a big jump, but always glad to see totals increasing this close to showtime rather than going the other way.

I was just reading through LOT's Twitter discussion last night - I am amazed at how many people said, "How much snow will we get in _________?" And then they'd tell them and post the snowfall map - again and again and again.  LOL.  They must have had the patience of saints last night. 

Winter Storm Warning for Milwaukee. 5-9 inches. I’ll take every single one of those inches. Please.

Winter Storm Watch up for me 5-8 inches. Added to what is on the ground already see should have a very impressive snowpack if this comes about.

I’ve been lurking for awhile but just have to chime in - I’m a little bit west of Milwaukee and I’d say we have close to 8” - what a great storm.

MKX has an interesting discussion- seems as if they are being very tentative on things for Friday into Saturday, this seems a good explanation of why:

“Models have started to trend toward a stronger deepening low that

lifts NE Friday into Saturday. Previous guidance was flatter with

the progression and kept some of the precip bottled up further

south. This change would favor more precip wrapping into

southeastern Wisconsin as the low pushes east. Now with that

said, there are still some questions as to whether models have a

good handle on the system. The initial low digs into MO/AR

Thursday night into Friday and transitions into a closed low over

the TN/OH Valleys. Then a second piece of energy digs south and

this is what could cause the system to deepen as the two features

phase over the OH Valley. The past few systems that have impacted

the area have had a similar trend where 2-4 days (where we are

currently) out models had more significant phasing and stronger

lows which bumped up QPF totals. Then as you got closer in the 1-2

day period they backed off and QPF amounts trended back down.

This has largely been the result of models inability to handle the

phasing of closed lows. Will be keeping a close on eye on how

guidance handles these features over the next few model cycles.

Subtle adjustments to QPF were made with this forecast and these

changes keep us below the 50th percentile for both QPF and Snow

amounts. This is likely a good place to be based on the lingering

uncertainty. Both GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance are narrowing in

on some of those higher QPF and snow amounts. So, if models hold

onto this trend will likely continue to nudge amounts upwards.

Another complicating factor is that with the low deepening warmer

air gets wrapped in and temps Friday through Saturday could be

such that we end up with more of a mix of rain/snow than all snow.

The profile aloft is cold enough for all snow but there could be a

deep enough layer near the surface to melt some of the snow. Do

think models could have a slight warm bias to temps and have

nudged values down slightly but this would still support a

rain/snow mix.”

After this past weekend I can’t believe I’m being sucked into the models again. But I am!

You see it on this board! Human nature, I guess.

 

Everything has to historic, epic and the most-destructive possible for the blood thirsty crowd that need the most people possible suffering for their hobby.

What was your user name last year when you came on to troll the board? I can’t remember now.

I don’t know if I should use the word “hype” but that sure comes to mind with today’s forecast. And I am not talking about the posters on this or any other blogs I am talking about the NWS. I know that they must error in the name of safety and all but still? I think we ALL pay too much attention to the computer models. Too much is put into trying to have the models do much of the forecasting. I was concerned yesterday when there was talk of a 15 to 30-mile window of where the heaviest ice would be. Now that happens many times but to forecast that is kind of tricky. So bottom line it looks like we have been 2020 1^st Winter Storm Warming for a night in the upper 40’s with heavy rain and now what looks to be maybe 2 to 3” of snow and sleet. Like I say this is not finger pointing at any one but I think the NWS takes most of the blame along with the weather models that many of us follow. At this time it is 32 with a light mist falling.

As I watch this storm dissolve into next to nothing I was thinking similar thoughts - it seems as if most forecast discussions are “this model says x, this model says y - we’ve blended them together and will update as the new runs come in.” One of things I appreciate about this forum is people using modes as a tool, rather than a crutch - I suspect too little actual forecasting goes into the forecasts and more reporting models goes on without applying them as tools combined with knowledge and experience to produce a real forecast. I often feel better informed by following you all here then I do listening the NWS forecasts. I’m not trying to simply criticize but like many things today we’ve handed over our thought process to what computers say, this is just an example of it - there is a real place for experience and knowledge that no computer can imitate. It has a piece of this puzzle but not the whole puzzle and too often forecast discussions become lazy.

From MKX Twitter:

“This is officially the snowiest start to winter at both Milwaukee and Madison by virtue of number of days with measurable snowfall to start off the winter season. - For Milwaukee this is the 6th day with measurable snowfall. The old record was 5 in 1925 and 1896 - For Madison this is the 7th day with measurable snowfall. The old record was 6 set in 1990 and 1925.“

Nice start to the season!

Wish the resolution on this was a bit better, but an interesting graphic from MKX

2.8” and counting...surprised to see how quickly it’s accumulating. Very wet, dense snow that’s sticking to everything.

Is it sticking to the pavement or just the grass? Just started here maybe half an hour ago or so. So far melting on contact.

Picked up about two inches of fluff.

They definitely should do it for you, if so. Give you a chance in life.

 

When I was in college — I was out having fun, chasing girls and making memories. You’re posting snow totals on a weather forum 24/7. Someone in charge here needs to save you from yourself before you become Tom Jr.

I’m surprised your asylum allows patients to have access to the internet.

Quite the dramatic change in winter this past month.

I’d say we had 6-7 inches here. Surprised by the amounts, the snow pack is as high as it was before the great melting of a few days ago.

We’ve had about seven inches with a little more still falling. Hard to believe our run of true winter weather over the past three weeks or so - four real storms plus the two days of bitter cold and five school days cancelled - winter took its time getting here, but now that it’s shown up, it’s shown up with a vengeance!

Thanks everyone for the support. I’m a pretty leniant guy in here and I can take a “jab” but what was said today crossed the line, esp when he dissed our members. It doesn’t sit right with me. I’ll have iFred handle it from here.

I don’t post much because my weather knowledge is only so deep but I always look forward to your morning posts because I learn a ton - you help drive this board - that other guy, I don’t know - that guy has problems.

Interesting Facebook post by NWS MKE.

 

We've had a lot of comments about warning decisions being made w/this event. Every winter storm is different. We know that there are a lot of decisions being made on these forecasts, so sometimes we can give warnings to others earlier based on our confidence.

 

We've had feedback that we've been going too high on many of our forecast amounts for snowfall this year, so we've been taking a slower approach on this event because there was uncertainty. It is a fast mover and the models don't always do a great job w/these events.

 

When Milwaukee or Madison are involved in those decisions, they become magnified by the number of eyes on the forecast. Bottom line: Know that we're putting a lot of effort into these difficult forecasts to make you aware of what is coming your way. -TH

If that's the reason for staying in the Advisory for so long before moving to the Warning then that was a mistake to bow to that kind of pressure - I think they have done a really admirable job with their forecasts lately and by holding back on the Warning I think a lot of people are unprepared for what is rolling through.

Heavy wet snow - more impressive than the last one.