VMB443

My goodness, that 00z Euro run is a "Dream Clipper Track" for N IL...temps starting off in the single digits and climbing into the low/mid 10's, well over 1" qpf, Lehs followed by LES...one can dream if it were to come true.

 

For your viewing pleasure....I also attached a snow depth map...just friggin' crazy...

 

Post Clipper, looks like the Euro wants to drop the "Polar Vortex Party" with a stretch of days not rising above 0F for a couple days or more around the MW.

This winter is going from pitiful to awesome pretty quickly here!

Up to about 4.5 here - should snow for most of the rest of the morning off and on - they even got around to cancelling school.

Snowing now really good. Was wrong on my earlier estimate - I’d say we had a good three to three and a half already. Schools haven’t been closed, we’ll see if that ends up being a mistake.

A significant lull here for the past couple of hours - NWS says the heaviest is on the way, but they keep saying that - the radar looks goodthough, so there’s hope - otherwise it looks like maybe a couple of inches so far.

Two Winter Storm Warnings here in five days - can’t believe it!

0z hrrr and still snowing

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2019012200&fh=36&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=

Yes please.

MKX Situation Report has me at 4-6 inches - would love to see that amount of snow on top of what we’ve got already.

How is GFS versus the NAM this year? To my untrained eye it looks as if the NAM has been overdoing precipitation but doing well with the track? Whereas GFS seems to be kind of flopping around on both? Am I seeing that right?

MKX suggesting 3-5 for us, kind of surprised they are already putting numbers to it, their afternoon forecast discussion seems fairly confident at this point that we are going to have a decent snow event, more than I would say is usual for them still three days out.

Anyone in MKE getting good LES? Radar is showing a nice band parked over the city.

 

I'm west of downtown probably fifteen miles or so, so we are just getting a nice gentle snowfall with some bigger flakes - not sure how much accumulation it will add up this far west of the lake, but definitely a nice snow globe effect to add to our first real snowfall since last April!

Waking up to a classic winter storm - significant drifting and temps falling. Hoping for a little bit more this morning and then will be interested to see if we can pad our total with some lake effect later on. My unscientific guess is we have about 5 inches - too lazy to go out in the cold so early and actually measure!

Lake bands are embedded with the synoptic snows near MKE...I can point out 2 different bands...one on the N Side and the other just S of the city...

 

Just got back from downtown Milwaukee - legit snowstorm down there, streets messy and snow coming quickly. I’m west of there and I’d say we have 2” or a tad more here, downtown has a good three I would say, maybe a bit more.

Half an inch here - starting to stick to roads even with traffic.

Baby flakes falling.

MKX holds steady in their afternoon discussion on the forecast for us and mention possible lake effect starting around 3:00 tomorrow afternoon after the first part of the show ends early to mid-morning.

MKX update says I get 4-8 - they bumped up the high end of the range - liking how that’s happening, rather than the other way around.

I’m liking where we are sitting here in Milwaukee - we may not score huge totals but given what we have had this winter (or not had) even 4-6 sounds is going to feel like a major storm, also watching the possibility of lake effect snow, I may be a bit too far west to get significant totals from that, but even an inch or two off it would be nice.

And Milwaukee just gave me a Winter Storm Watch with “heavy snow” - 5-7 inches.

MKX has 4-8 for Milwaukee County plus half a county west which would include me - here’s hoping!

MKX going with 2-6 inches for my area - with a lot of uncertainty at this point obviously, but I’d take anything- 6 would almost match our entire winter snowfall so far. It’s been so bad I’d even be excited for 2.

This from Milwaukee - story of the winter so far.

 

Looks like I'm not missing much of anything. I've been unplugged for the past 2 weeks. Has Milwaukee seen any 4"+ snowfalls yet?

Nope. I’m not sure if we have much more than 4” over the entire winter so far.

 

*Edit* Officially at 8” for the entire season. Pitiful.

Changeover to snow in Milwaukee - nice fat flakes and sticking to sidewalks nicely!

Mkx disxo... doesn't sound promising to me?

 

Temps will rise a few degrees above freezing during the afternoon especially over se WI. Overall, more snow for pcpn type nw of MSN to more rain over se WI. Nly winds and low level cold advection will eventually cool temps enough for a transition to snow. As the system moves away Mon eve, a loss of ice crystals occurs due to a dry slot, thus light freezing rain or freezing drizzle may occur. In summary, light ice and snow accum is forecast with this system but the ensemble runs suggest wide ranging possibilities of snow accum. If a deeper low can occur, more snowfall would be expected.

I saw that too - I wonder if they are hedging their bets after that last “storm” where they issued a Winter Storm Warning for half an inch of snow. Playing it safer on this one perhaps?

Total bust in Milwaukee - maybe a quarter of an inch or so - the wind is whipping around and blowing what little snow we had off our grass and into the street where it promptly melts! Actually kind of funny, if we’d have a major storm I would have been happy, but I actually don’t mind having avoided a two inch nuisance snow.