weatherfan

Looking like the cold front stalls over SLC tonight with snow likely. Probably a deep isothermal layer near freezing. Latest ECMWF hits us with heavy wrap around moisture as the low ejects NE to our SE. On top of all of that LES is still on track.

 

These last minute model swings are killing me but at least in this case its a good thing.

How much snow are you currently thinking for the Salt Lake City area this week in total? What about with lake effect? It looks like a thunderstorm or two is likely late this afternoon or this evening as the cold front swings through. What are your thoughts about the likelihood of this?

Models are suddenly looking more interesting the next ten days. Cold trough on the 30th with 700mb temps dropping to -6C will put snow down to 6-7k feet if all goes well. Should be some good rains in the valleys too.

 

Surprisingly good agreement on day 8-10 between GFS and ECMWF tonight, but even so its pretty far out. Anyway, both models showing a 4" snowstorm in that period. That would be nice to see after the warmest October and September I think on record.

Hi Black Hole. Thank you for this info, it is good to know. Is there an update about this? What are your thoughts?

Yes, it is quite warm for this time of the year here in the Salt Lake City area and has been for two or more weeks now. Abnormal for this time of the year. It looks like back to near normal temps here in the Salt Lake City area this weekend with some cold rain and perhaps a rain/snow mix.

New ECMWF going for 1" on Thurs, 1" on Saturday. Ensemble mean goes for about 2" and 1.5" with each of those.

Thank you. In today's 12Z ECMWF, doesn't it show the northern jet stream and southern jet stream basically combining with a snowstorm and prolonged cold temps this weekend?

AFD that just came out at 4 is a great read on the upcoming possibilities. 12z ECMWF has -18C at 700mb lol.

I read it and it describes how things may play out quite well. -18C sounds frigid for mid-November. I think that would be well below average.

So I just subscribed to weatherbell and its great. Lots of cool stuff so hopefully I can do a better job with analysis in the mid range now.

Anyway as far as next week goes a good cold front Monday will bring temps down quite a bit and with northerly flow they should stay chilly. Strong pressure gradient should allow cool air to drain in from the east through the canyons. Small chance of precip with that wave Monday but I am going to say no. The system is too far to the NE.

 

We may see some rain or perhaps some snow Thurs-Fri but this feature is being handled in different ways on the models.

 

As for your question and what I also want to get at....the real story looks to be next weekend. All of the models bring down cold air behind a shortwave and bring in some moisture. So they all show snow and cold. ECMWF is by far the best though. Ensemble mean on the ecmwf is about 2" of snow and it does show a lot of 15 and highs near freezing. GFS would be warmer with highs in the mid 30s. Does that help?

Yes, thank you. It is quite helpful. Accumulating snow is looking increasingly likely next weekend with perhaps some super cold air along with it or behind it as well.

Well this morning ECMWF is the most optimistic yet... But that is because it is cutting off a off the Oregon coast. Below is the direct comparison between the GFS and ECMWF at 12z for 500mb.

 

http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models/ecmwf-12/500cf120.gif

The CMC is doing something similar, but I don't know if I would be that optimistic. But regardless I would not expect much of anything minus cold in either scenario. Dr. Steenburg's Lake effect guidance is showing at most a 2% chance on tues. This is mostly due to the low RH and neither the CMC or ECMWF are optimistic for mositure until after the main front has past. The 0c and 540 mb line then retreat northward. The valley might see rain, but no snow... I see the GFS doesn't like our chances for rain next friday either, but it does setup for a decent chance of lake effect for 7 days out. Infact for my forecast today i'll put a 20% chance of rain during the day and snow at night on friday.

 

With all that said, I'm still just learning how to forecast for winter storms and in particular lake effect. So grain of salt. I would take what Derek says with a bigger grain of salt then what I say.

Thank you, halofromajo. Your input is important, in my opinion. Derek's input is just as important even though he may be more knowlegeable in this. I still consider myself an amateur when it comes to analyzing the weather forecasting computer models, even though I have studying them for several years.

 

I like this sunny and warm weather that Utah has been having, I don't like the inversion though. I prefer clean air over polluted air. Hopefully the air will become clean, at least temporarily clean, with the multiple rounds of cold air expected to come in next week.

No idea, but the 540 thickness line in both is appearing to stay over the logan/cache valley area, so it might be cold, but not cold enough.... Unless you live in Alta.

How did last night's 00Z ECMWF look in regards to the cold air next week? In last night's 00Z GFS and today's 06Z they appear to moderate the colder air to where it does gets significantly colder next week to about where temps should be this time of the year though they show very little precip. What is both of your thoughts and analysis about this so far?

The run that came in today wasn't quite as cold with that blast, but overall it was a little more west with everything, as was the GFS. I think we see some days with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. The coldest air won't push in without good upper level support.

 

What I see as being more likely is that with several shortwaves rotating through eventually we get one to go to our south bringing a chance of snow. Currently both the GFS and ECMWF do that at about day 8-9.

 

We also may get some gusty canyon winds with this from the NE pressure gradient. However no large downslope storm without the NE winds at 700mb.

 

Its true that the best of the cold air stays north but we will have some good low level cold! Mostly we are lacking in moisture when its cold...and when the moisture arrives it may have moderated too much lol. (fri)

How did last night's 00Z ECMWF look in regards to the cold air next week? In last night's 00Z GFS and today's 06Z they appear to moderate the colder air to where it does gets significantly colder next week to about where temps should be this time of the year though they show very little precip. What is both of your thoughts and analysis about this so far?

00z ECMWF blasts us with arctic air on day 9. Pretty far out but fun to see it starting to show up.

What would be the low and high temps based on this model run? Is it still showing this? Today's 12Z GFS shows it getting much colder here in the Salt Lake City area early to mid week next week with perhaps a cold rain or rain-snow mix next weekend. I could be wrong but it looks like the models are trending further west with the cold air and precip for next week. Next week could be ajor transitional week when it comes to the weather.

So all of my friends that I got to join this place, you should start posting!

 

In other news, might see some continental air seep over the Rockies on Monday. If it happens, we will probably see some lows in the low to mid 20s.

That is likely going to be the biggest weather change in the Rocky Mountain areas over the next week or longer. Some precip would be nice as well.

Don't worry the weather will suck for the next 2 weeks it looks like. Did hit 26 this morning, and could make it down to around 32-34 tonight.

Yes, no snow or rain for the next seven days or longer in the Salt Lake City area plus relatively warm high temps are expected this week and currently for next week. Those are abnormal for this time of the year, especially the barely any precip thing. Two main things coming for here the next week is a little bit of cooler air at times and some strong gusty winds at times with a dry cold front or two. The inversion is likely going to strengthen over the next couple weeks or until a storm with precip and/or enough wind and cold air comes through.

79 yesterday, about 60 today, might struggle to get above the low 50s tomorrow.

Yeah, there was a chill to the air today and it will be chilly tomorrow with the high temp being near 50, which means it will be mostly in the 40s tomorrow. Then, the first freezing temps in several months for the Wasatch Front. Black Hole, what do you think about the chance of snow next weekend for the Salt Lake City area? Are models, other than the GFS, showing the chance right now? Halloween is certainly not going to be snow like I briefly thought on October 21. To me, near 70 and mostly sunny sounds quite nice.

All quiet for a few more days with a chance of showers next week.

The GFS is currently showing flurries on Halloween the Wasatch Front. It is at least the second time it has showed this potential solution over the past few days. What is the ECMWF currently showing for the Wasatch Front for late next week?

We had another strong storm with lightning every second, heavy rain, and some small hail. I got some good footage to upload later. My total for the last couple days is up to 1.62".

Me too. Vivid, frequent lightning with gusty winds. Not much rain with it though. That was around 8pm last night. Just had another similar thunderstorm (about 45 minutes ago) except there was plenty of rain with it instead of frequent lightning.

Super heavy rain has fallen here in the past hour. Quite a bit of lightning and thunder early this morning as well. I think that heaviest rain from this storm is still expected to come in this evening and tonight, correct Black Hole? What is the chance of severe thunderstorms today for the Wasatch Front?

As of right now I think we are looking first a mostly warm, windy, and sunny day tomorrow. Clouds will increase in the afternoon and it looks like thunderstorms will blow up in the evening, but will not be widespread. Good shear, instability, diffluence aloft, and increasing moisture make storms a good bet. Some may even be severe, but probably not for us.

 

These showers will continue into Saturday morning. As the front negatively tilts (back away from us), looks like we get a few drier hours in. Later the front will push through with a 3-6 hour period of heavy rain I think. Probably .5-1" for most.

 

Thoughts yourself?

 

As for next week I do see what you are talking about but my attention has been elsewhere lol. I will look into that storm in greater detail after ECMWF/Canadian come out later.

Okay. I currently mainly look at the GFS model's numerical output and the NAM, not the ECMWF or Canadian models as I don't really understand how to read/interpret them. I think that there will be at least 1" of rainfall with this weekend's storm for most areas of Utah with some areas receiving 2" of rain by Monday. I am looking forward to more thunderstorms over the next two to three days. This weekend's storm should introduce us to true Fall weather. I appreciate you looking at the ECMWF and Canadian models regarding next week's possible storm.

Still waiting for the rest of the 00z guidance to come in to try and get a better feel for things. But GFS is getting slower and slower with the arrival of the heavier rain. It still comes, but if its to be believed, it might be Saturday evening before it arrives.

Agreed. I, too, think that the heaviest rain begins in the evening on Saturday, probably sometime between 6-8pm with light to moderate rain before this and with a good chance of a thunderstorm or two before the heaviest rain begins.

Yeah I saw that, for not I'm not buying it!

 

But the storm this weekend looks fun. I think the less it pinches off initially the better. Tends to result in better dynamics. I will post a full forecast later tonight.

Sounds great! There are still some model runs today that are suggesting that an even colder storm (colder than this weekend's storm) may come in Wednesday or Thursday of next week with a snow level near 6,000 feet. Probably won't happen but if it does, it would be quite early and cold for this time of the year.

Models still going crazy with precip Saturday for Utah. Most are in the 1-2" range in just a 6-12 hour period.

One model currently suggests that the Wasatch Front will be super close to the rain/snow line on Wednesday/Thursday of next week. Yes this weekend's storm looks fairly strong for this time of year.

You should post more often! I would love to have somebody else who lives here to talk with.

 

As far as this fall/winter I think that it should be said first that nobody knows for sure. However el nino climatology suggests that an early start to fall/winter is more likely than not. Therefore I agree with the general prognosis that we may see an early start this year. I certainly hope we do!

Sorry. I currently do not come on this forum often. I should. I too would like someone else to chat with about the weather. Utah, especially the Wasatch Front (Ogden, Salt Lake City, and Provo Valleys) has one of the most dynamic climates, especially from mid-Fall through early Spring. You seem to know your stuff about the weather.

Hi Black Hole. I am a long-time reader of this weather forum and some other weather forums though I don't post often. I enjoy studying the weather and its many aspects. I have a question for you regarding this upcoming weather this Fall and Winter. Do you think the same as some meteorologists when it comes to super early (perhaps record-breaking) start to snow season?

My boys spent a few minutes waving and acting goofy in front of the KGW camera vans from Portland (supposedly on the air according to people there).   

 

There were news crews all over the place.   

Thank you for responding. It must have been neat to go and be there to support the Seahawks. With how cold it was (around 30 degrees F), there really was quite a bit of people there. What a beautiful sunny day that will be no more tomorrow. Couldn't have been a better day weather-wise except for perhaps a few degrees warmer. I saw crystal-clear blue skies the entire time the parade was going on.

How many news cameras did you see around, TT-SEA? I watched the parade online on all the Seattle news station websites. There was a crazy high number of people there.

Not sure they will ever know the real number... the Seahawks officially said 1 million.    It was CRAZY down there.    I was about 5 feet away from Pete Carroll holding the Lombardi Trophy.