Abbotsford_wx
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Posts posted by Abbotsford_wx
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Nice early fall day... 46/75, mostly sunny, crisp and breezy. East wind helping our temp this afternoon, but still managed a cool morning low.
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Vancouver BC is straight up normal after the warm spike on the 00Z GFS ensembles...
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png
Does Vancouver really average 5C colder than Portland at the 850 mb level? I've been wondering because these graphs have shown the same discrepancy all summer long. Vancouver always seems to be warmer relative to normal than Portland.
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95% of the region is currently below to well below normal for September, and will likely finish the month that way with several more cool days in the short term, and what is looking to be a short lived ridge followed by more cool weather the last few days of the month.
The map does show a warm sector here, but when you average it out it's been near to slightly below normal west of the Cascades.
It's certainly been cool east of the Cascades.
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I think it was the first 40s of the year SEA last night.
51 here, though it rained most of the night. It's bright and sunny this morning, however.
With the warm period upcoming we'll likley finish around +1F for September.
I'm at 2.26" of rain for the month. Normal for September is 2.97". Still a chance of reaching that.
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Looking for some straight forward answers or links if possible. The "blob" obviously is being talked about again, and I want to know if it really does influence our climate in any way? The SST's in that area are simply a reflection of the upper level circulations, which in this case is high pressure resulting in less mixing of the waters. Does this truly alter the airmass enough to make a difference? Most of the blob is hype, and the "so much for winter" posts on FB are exaggerated (even if they are being serious), but I'm honestly curious. I'm assuming any type of warming, if any, would be isolated to the coastline? Thanks!
Cliff Mass ran some model simulations that showed an increase of 1-2F over land (I'm assuming that was for SEA). http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2016/09/the-blob-is-back.html
It's not a linear relationship... ie, if the blob anomaly is +4C, our observed temperature increase would only be a fraction of that, but that might still be enough to screw us during marginal snow situations.
I would think the effects would be most profound right by the coast, but there should be effects everywhere west of the Cascades.
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Nothing like that here. The snow melted slowly over the next 2-3 months.
Lucky. I remember the snow here was completely gone by Jan 10th.
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1992-93: Ok, but no true Arctic air or major snowstorms (a couple 2-3")
Really? January 1993 was top tier up here.
20" of snow (three solid weeks of snowcover and no rain in the first 18 days of the month)
11 sub-freezing highs
Low of 2.5F
Monthly mean of 29.8F
Actually, that event began in late December, and there had already been some decent snow earlier in the month. 37" of snow in total over those two months.
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WxBell's preliminary winter forecast:
That's the spring forecast. Our winter is Nov-Dec.
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Based on just snowfall, I assume.
Yeah. I didn't look at temperature. That would be harder to quantify.
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It's been pretty much the worst ever up here no matter how you slice the data...
Worst four year period on recond
Worst five year period on record
Worst six year period on record
Worst seven year period on record
Worst eight year period on record
It only becomes second worst when you reach nine years. (For the curious, the worst 9 year period was 1997 to 2005.)
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Does it really matter? I've looked at the numbers locally and I haven't noticed much benefit to having a stronger Nina. Snowfall seems to peak at an ONI of about -1.0, but neutral is almost just as good.
All of the Nina hype just typically leads to disappointment.
1998/99 and 1999/2000 were both lame. 2007/2008 was okay for northern areas, but there was little in the way of sustained cold or snowcover. 2010/11 was probably the best of the bunch, but it didn't hold a candle to 2008/2009. There were also several good winters in the early-to-mid 1990's that were neutral.
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I hope everybody enjoys today because this is the last HOT day for the rest of the year west of the Cascades. Tomorrow will be the last day in the mid 80s at PDX. It looks like we are headed for cooler weather after that and a shift to Autumn like weather. Depending on if PDX can hit 80 on Sunday or Monday, I think PDX might be done with 80+ degree weather. I'm calling for Autumn to come early and Winter to come early as well and arrive sometime in November. I just have a gut feeling.
I think Monday could hit mid 80's.
Pretty bold call, though.
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93 in Abbotsford today, breaks the record of 92 from 1986.
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Strong surge of West winds down the Strait this morning. Gusting to 55mph at Trial Island, off the southern tip of Victoria.
Speaking of Victoria. YYJ is at 65.3F for the month to date. The Record for August is 64.6F from 1942.
Abbotsford is at 67.6 through yesterday. That ties with 2014 for the second warmest on record. The record is 68.4 from 2004.
I bet it'll be close - it just depends on how the weekend turns out. If it's as troughy as the GFS, then no.
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A low of 67 here... already 82 at 9:35 am.
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Even with temps in the mid 90's and no A/C in the car I never felt particularly sweaty today. Hot, but not unbearably so.
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YXX is still 84 at 11 pm. They hit 94 today.
Oddly, Environment Canada is predicting tomorrow to be 5 degrees cooler than today, and Saturday about 8 degrees cooler.
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Wow, that's crazy you guys got to 90 already before noon. Is it common there to reach your high around noon?
Not at all. Usually between 3 and 4 pm. I think we could see upper 90's in places today.
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Current temperatures as of 11am:
Hillsboro - 79
Kelso - 78
Salem - 77
Seattle - 76
Troutdale - 76
Eugene - 75
Portland - 75
Kelso hit 100 early this summer when nobody else did so they could be one of the hotter spots again today.
Crazy how cool it is down there. It was 90 here at 11 am. Currently 91, so the climb seems to have slowed a bit.
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My temp went from 76 to 90 in the last hour.
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SEA made a nice recovery today... from fog and 59 at 11 a.m. to 81 and sunny at 4 p.m.
Yeah, same up here. We would normally stay below 80 on a day with any marine cloud intrusion, but we hit 82 today.
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Yup, today will under-perform for temperature. Yesterday was 81 here. The forecast for today is 82, but we're running about 3.5 degrees off yesterday's pace.
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Months without substantial rain have sure transformed the look of the landscape. The hot dry pattern coming up won't be much drier than it's been here for the past month, but we're getting closer to the time of the year where increased humidity and longer nights reduce the evaporation rate.
Wow. Not quite so bad here, but still mighty dry. The last ground soaking rain was over a month ago.
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Yesterday was a -1.1, our first negative departure since July 15th. This morning's low was a +3.
ENSO Discussion
in West of the Rockies
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Interesting, but I thought the CFSv2 was garbage at predicting ENSO. Unless it's showing something we want to see, of course.