Money

What does the effect of dynamic cooling have on models? Wouldn't it push the baroclinic zone farther to the SE hence a farther SE track? Could this be what the NAM and it's cousins are hinting at?

We should know pretty soon whos right. Check out the differences within 12 hours from now and the strength of the LP.

lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/12/hrw-nmm_eus_039_precip_p03.gif

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/12/hrw-arw_eus_036_precip_p03.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/12/hrw-nmm_eus_036_precip_p03.gif They are either way off, or this will be one hell of a coup for them.

ARW http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/12/hrw-arw_eus_033_precip_p03.gif NMM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/12/hrw-nmm_eus_030_precip_p03.gif GFS at the same time has a 992 L in IA

fyi HRW-ARW and HRW-NMM are both coming in SE. Worlds apart from the GFS.

Tom, what do you think about the NAM? Would be interesting to see if the HRW-NMM etc stay the same as it.

12z GFS: 981.2 just E of LSE lol And we go on..

It's odd because with these type of systems you would expect it to show a low west of LSE lol I doubt it's onto something, but who knows.

How does dynamic cooling affect the low pressure systems? I know NAM is the best at showing that, but could that be the reason it's pushing farther SE?

12z RGEM: 981 over DBQ lol

4KM NAM is south of it's 6z run. MKE gets hammered. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=039&image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_039_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140219+12+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area

09z SREF: LSE: Mean: 6.02 (03z: 7.30) Highest: 14.41 (03z: 12.05) Lowest: 1.88 (03z: 3.85) Members over 6+: 7 (03z: 10) DBQ: Mean: 3.52 (03z: 3.86) Highest: 8.59 (03z: 9.83) Lowest: 0.06 (03z: 0.23) Members over 4+ 7 (03z:9) OSH: Mean: 3.82 (03z: 3.55) Highest: 8.58 (03z: 8.78) Lowest: 0.69 (03z: 0.53) Members over 4+: 8 (03z: 5) MKE: Mean: 1.77 (03z: 2.04) Highest: 7.00 (03z: 8.04) Lowest: 0.00 (03z: 0.00) Members over 2+: 4

Not true. HRW-NNM/HRW-ARW showed a similar path, and numerous GFS ensembles actually had the track the NAM was showing just a day or so ago. I'm not saying it's right, but it's def. not the only model showing that. 0z RGEM had a 987 low in the similar spot before the 06z run jumped it back nw

Now the question is the NAM on crack or is it seeing something that the others aren't? It doesn't phase the systems til later once it gets up into IL and then rapidly deepens, correct?

HR 36: 988.7 just E of Chicago. Consistent, nearly same location/strength as 6z.

HR 34: 991.2 near Ponitiac IL or so

NAM might even end up a tad SE of 6z.

12z NAM HR 24: 995.7 just W of Joplin 06z NAM HR 30: 996.7 in the same location.

Looks similar to 6z so far through hr 22

GFS is similar to the 00z run. MKE going with WAA until 12 PM Thursday for FZR/SN and a WSW for Green Lake/Dells area for 2-4 inches of snow + 50 mph winds IT CAN/T BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH HOW COMPLEX AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS THIS STORM IS. WE WILL BE SITTING VERY CLOSE TO TEMPERATURE THRESHOLDS THAT DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPES AND THE FINAL TRACK OF THE LOW IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. A SLIGHT DEVIATION WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SOME AREAS. IF IT GOES FARTHER EAST...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY BE THE TARGET FOR THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. FARTHER WEST AND IT/S A WARMER SCENARIO. PLEASE REMAIN ALERT FOR LATER UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.

LOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 321 AM CST WED FEB 19 2014 ILZ010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-191730- /O.NEW.KLOT.FA.A.0001.140220T0900Z-140220T1800Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL- KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER- BENTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON... CHICAGO...OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE... PONTIAC...WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO... RENSSELAER...FOWLER 321 AM CST WED FEB 19 2014 /421 AM EST WED FEB 19 2014/ ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN ILLINOIS...COOK...DE KALB... DUPAGE...FORD...GRUNDY...IROQUOIS...KANE...KANKAKEE... KENDALL...LA SALLE...LEE...LIVINGSTON AND WILL. IN INDIANA... BENTON...JASPER...LAKE IN...NEWTON AND PORTER. * FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. * THE COMBINATION OF MELTING SNOW...FROZEN GROUND AND RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO LOCALLY AN INCH AND A HALF LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLOODING. * HIGH STANDING WATER AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN POOR DRAINAGE AND FLOOD PRONE LOW LYING AREAS. SIGNIFICANT RISES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON AREA STREAMS...CREEKS AND RIVERS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

yup, it's stronger/nw it looks like. Amazing the model differences within 36 hours of the event. We aren't talking minor differences either.

WPC giving Chicago a 70-80% chance of receiving >.10 FZR http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?ftype=probabilities&fpd=48&ptype=icez This should be interesting.. Snow with areas of blowing snow before midnight, then snow likely with areas of blowing snow after midnight. Low around 18. Windy, with a southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west 20 to 30 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

GB AFD mentioned the other day how models have a tough time with phasing systems. Could be seeing that come into play. Not sure which one to lean towards right now. NAM has been very good overall the last few months and it has a better time with handling dynamic cooling compared to lower resolution models. But it still is the NAM lol