Maxim

And all this hype about how this winter could end up rivaling last winter

I'm more concerned about when we'll changeover to snow. The changeover is crucial to how much accumulating snow we may receive.

yawn

Never did I say that this winter will be a no-show. I was merely stating that I wasn't feeling too good about this winter with the way things are going. Also, an arctic outbreak with no snow on the ground is meaningless. If it's not going to snow then bring on the 60s and let's torch instead. Cold and dry is just absolutely awful.

Update from LOT: .UPDATE... 855 PM CST OBSERVED DATA IS STARTING TO GIVE SOME BETTER CLUES AS TO HOW THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL PLAY OUT. LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH TAKING SHAPE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI COAST TO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE IT THEN ARCS NORTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHWEST OHIO. BASED ON WIND FIELDS ON THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW WOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN EARLIER GUIDANCE AND FORECASTS SUGGESTED. THIS WOULD TAKE THE LOW EAST OF INDIANAPOLIS THOUGH PROBABLY NOT AS FAR EAST AS RICHMOND...THEN UP INTO FAR NORTHWEST OHIO TOWARDS DEFIANCE. TREND OF PRESSURE FALLS HAS BEEN TAKING THEM FROM SOUTHEAST INDIANA UP ACROSS THE CINCINNATI AREA TOWARDS COLUMBUS SUPPORTING THE FURTHER EAST TRACK AND PERHAPS ONE FURTHER EAST OF THE TRACK DESCRIBED ABOVE. 18Z GUIDANCE HAD HINTED AT A FURTHER EAST TRACK BUT MANAGED TO KEEP MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WELL TO THE WEST AND ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA. THE 00Z NAM HAS COME IN AND IS FURTHER EAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE ANALYSIS ABOVE. HAVE CONSIDERED SHIFTING GEARS A BIT TAKING THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP A LITTLE FURTHER EAST BUT WITH THE INCONSISTENCY OF THE NAM OF LATE...THE PENDING ARRIVAL OF A MYRIAD OF NEW 00Z GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS AND WPC...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANGES FOR NOW. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE AND MAY STILL REQUIRE VERY STRONG FORCING TO PRODUCE ALL SNOW. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST FORCING MAY TRY TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE GOING FORECAST SUGGESTING THAT THE IL/IN STATE LINE AREA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST INDIANA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES AND THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF FGEN FORCING SPREAD ACROSS NW IL WHICH COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW OVER A BROADER AREA. LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN TIME FRAME...THOUGH AN EARLIER CHANGE OVER IN NW INDIANA IS POSSIBLE AND ANY HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE STARTED EARLIER. WILL LEAVE HEADLINES AS-IS FOR NOW AND RE-ISSUE SPS FOR NORTHWEST AREAS NOT IN A HEADLINE HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE EAST. WILL BOLSTER WORDING IN AN SPS FOR JASPER AND BENTON COUNTIES AS IT IS POSSIBLE A HEADLINE MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THEM TONIGHT.

Just not feeling good about this winter because of what might happen to the current system that we're all watching. We're already nearing Christmas, and only a trace of snow this month; just about as pathetic as the 2011/2012 winter season.

Yeah, figured he'd say something like that.

Never did I think this would miss us to the east though. Before, I was always concerned about it tracking too far to the west

Has Caplan said anything yet?

So much pessimism on here, it's unreal.

The map refreshed by itself. The 1-2" is for hours 24 - 36 now.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f036.gif

What's the point of posting what the GFS is showing? Do you really buy what it's showing?

I'm still not ruling out a possible last minute shift to the NW. Have seen it happen before in rapidly deepening systems such as this one.

And they all agreed that the EURO was an outlier

GEFS disagrees with the EURO... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2014/post-163-0-71520300-1419359098.png

It wouldn't make sense that there would be an east trend with such a deepening system. A west trend would be more feasible, which is why I wouldn't rule out a last minute NW shift with the defo band.

No chance it comes to fruition

Uh oh.... Storm is cancelled!

Sun has been out all morning here for the most part.

lol ok

Nah, I think Lake and Mchenry counties will be fine. Winnebago county might be cutting it though.

Actually wouldn't mind a slight shift to the NW at this point.

12/1/06 redux?

Track looks pretty consistent still