Tom

The JMA weeklies that came yesterday had an interesting development right around the Holiday period. The transitional period we are about to enter is showing up in the 0z suite of the modeling. IMO, we are starting to see the models veer away from the GOA that has plagued Alaska/B.C for the better part of this month and the end of NOV. The data is starting to show more potential for Higher Heights to develop in the NE PAC/W NAMER. For instance, we shall take a peek into the 0z GEFS animation below... It's not just the GEFS, take a look at the GEPS changes....Change are certainly brewing... The LR forecasting technique that has been pretty solid this season is showing me that by the 22nd (+ or - a couple days), the changes in the GOA will be in the works and retrograde the trough westward. By Christmas, it should have completely reversed and I fully anticipate a NE PAC ridge (-EPO). The question will be, where will there be a Festive Miracle? Who will be lucky to have a White Christmas? This is where the fun will begin as we track winter storms in a "real winter" pattern. I got me eye on the "SW to Midwest" connection....the devil is in the details as we move towards the Solstice period through the Holidays. Final thought, when I see the JMA paint AN precip in the heartland, it gives me some confidence that the LRC is going to deliver. The 500mb map lines up pretty well with the 0z EPS for Week 2. 0z EPS... Week 3-4 leads us into JAN and the New Year of 2024....Ready to Rock n Roll????

There is that PAC wave that I was hoping would lay down some snow right around this period for the Snow drought regions of S Canada.

Wow, to my surprise...we torched today and set a new record high of 84F!

Hmmm, well...was this a good use of the AI Graph model in the medium/long range??? Check out the GEPS...lets see if we see the southern piece become the bigger player...

PHX tied a record high of 82F yesterday...Today, we may set a NEW Record high of 82F!....Correction, we won't see a record high because it is 83F. I'll be honest, it did feel rather beautiful yesterday and today will be another stunning Winter day! You can find me at the pool later today....

The SW ridge was a clear indication early and often this Autumn out here and it is appearing to veer its ugly head for the storm that was supposed to dig this weekend but now tracking farther North. The big key driver will be how strong and persistent the -EPO can develop. Both of our regions need the ridge to pop in the NE PAC and troughs to track underneath it. We have seen this happen from time to time. What brings me some comfort is the fact that both the JMA & Euro seasonal show the NW NAMER ridge blossoming in JAN & FEB with a jet cutting underneath. That is our saving grace! This needs to change!

Well, today is the day Gary Lezak comes out with his Winter Forecast. Anyone have a link to it for a live viewing? Is there a live event?

The EPS took the lead on the storm this weekend and also took the lead on showing more ridging along the NE PAC region. Remember the 0z GEFS from a couple days ago? Last nights run below...I knew it would be wrong and now the models are suggesting more cold to be seeded into the pattern the following week. The period between the 16th - 22nd should still amount to a somewhat zonal flow as storms will target CA and PAC NW, but need not worry, because as we enter the Solstice period thru the Holidays...I will say, with confidence...Winter is Coming and many of us will feel the Wrath of Ol' Man Winter. I saw some data today that suggests a bit more confidence of the ideas I suggested earlier.

Ahhh, you brought me back to some good memories of these visuals...of course, now I will need to venture up north or to my east to see snow. I'm ok with that as it will allow me to travel to new places out west. Meantime, we will be heading up to near Record High territory today in the low 80's. It will be a great pool day...Have a Terrific Tuesday!

12z GEFS...

Did the King Euro have it right all along? Glad to see pretty much all Globals last night show some consistency for our next Winter storm...the question is, how quick can it phase, deepen?? Would love to see this storm bomb out as it tracks towards the OHV/Lower Lakes. My best friend for year's just arrived at Osage Beach, MO yesterday afternoon and did a video call with me showing the landscape of Lake of the Ozarks. He said to me, "Does this place get snow?" I had to chuckle and inform him that yes, it does snow and don't get used to the 50F warm weather bc you will be shivering in the snow later this month into JAN. 0z Euro...not a bad run, ay? This will be an interesting storm to track... I have opined that this storm will re-shuffle the pattern post 10th....looking at today's MJO forecast off the JMA and EURO, they are pretty much in same agreement that after the 10th, we head into the NULL phase and out into Phase 7 by the middle of the month which is the golden Cold phase for DEC. The CFSv2 weeklies also agree....We shall See!

Can you say this has been One Hellova start to the snow/ski season for the Rockies and Intermountain WEST? It's been snowing for literally Daysss on end for the Rockies. Some rather gnarly snowfall totals the past 3 days across WY/CO and UT...

Happy Monday! It's another chilly morning in the upper 40's (47F)...clear skies allow me to see the gorgeous stars in the sky almost every single morning. It's one of the small things in life I enjoy every day looking up at the stars. Our community, Fountain Hills, is known for being a Dark Sky Community...there are a total of 201 across the Globe and Arizona has 19 in the state which is more than any region in the world! https://fabulousarizona.com/arizona-best/a-guide-to-arizonas-dark-skies/

Wild swings in the data for next weekends Storm...will there be one? IMO, there will be a storm that re-shuffles the pattern post 10th. I have used this LR tool to predict the deep -NAO that developed as we opened DEC and are currently experiencing now. There will be a spike in the EPO and a period of troughs that will pound W NAMER and PAC NW during the 16th thru 22nd, however, there is enough blocking in the pattern across Canada that will "Seed" cold air into the pattern, es the northern members. Both the GEFS/GEPS start loosing the west coast blocking around the 9th/10th...IMHO they are wrong...let's see if this happens. 0z GEFS... 0z GEPS... On the flip side, the 0z EPS continues to show it and this is the more accurate illustration that I believe will happen... The question will be, is the storm on the horizon going to dig deep or track farther north??? Will this be another Texarkana cutter up through the OHV?? The 0z Euro and EPS sorta flashed this idea.... The LR data that I am using is suggesting the by the time we get towards the Winter Solstice period thru the end of DEC Winter will be covering a large portion of the Eastern CONUS. In a nutshell, post 10th will be a "step ladder" down towards Real Winter with a period of West Coast/W NAMER troughs mid Month that normally don't produce a lot of real cold air into the center part of the U.S. I'm really interested to see how this pattern evolves into the middle part of the month.

The "Stat padding" snows shall continue for you guys out in the MW/Lower Lakes....the clipper showing up on Mon night should add more for our members here...