Tom

BAMWx's take on snowfall using their Top Analogs...

My post went way over your head. I simply stated the NOAA director carried himself in a professional manner and didn’t agree on live TV with CNN’s Don Lemon’s push for climate change. It was smart to stay neutral. End of story.

I don’t deny the climate changes…it absolutely does change…the BIG difference is we differ in opinion of the reasoning behind how/why it changes. IMO, It ain’t solely caused by humans.

It's getting to be that time of year when changes begin to occur up in the Stratosphere. By Day 7, the Euro has been lock steady that a warming event will occur in the Arctic regions that will dislodge some early season cold off the snow pack that has already begun to take shape over the Archipelago/Arctic. Current Snow Cover... 0z Euro 10-day North American snow forecast....Laying down the White Gold...

You know when the models are struggling when you see these corrections in the EPO from the EPS...

The Flow over the mid-lat's of our Nation is about to go through a Massive change this week as we will likely see Day 1 of the new LRC pattern. This new pattern will be felt by literally all of us as a powerful Cold Front ushers in the seasons coldest airmass thus far. Some may see flakes flying up north across the Yoopers! I'm seeing a clear signal that a Long Term Long Wave Trough is developing across the eastern CONUS over the next 2 weeks. Meanwhile, a W NAMER Ridge is anchoring itself over W Canada creating a NW Flow aloft that will usher in re-surging rounds of colder weather. Alright, Alright, Alright...let me dive right in....I've learned over the years from listening to Gary Lezak that we usually see the "old" pattern blend with the "new" during the 1st week of OCT. I believe we are seeing this play out right now before our eyes with the trough centered over the N Rockies that's "cut-off" from the main flow aloft since it entered the PAC NW on 9/29. Check out how this slow moving energy just sits and spins waiting for the CF to pick it up on the likelihood of Day 1 of the new LRC pattern. Last night's 0z EPS 500mb...I'm tracking a potential Autumn storm 10/11-10/14 to track into the N Rockies and usher in the first Significant Snows of the season. Winter will arrive into the lower 48 for those folks.

Happy Monday! Many of you will experience an end to the growing season later this week. How has the harvest been? I heard the corn crop hasn't been so good up in IA/NE. Is that true? I'm sure a lot of gardeners and farmers will be in a frenzy this week.

Signs of Autumn of slowly appearing in the Valley of the Sun...BN temps in the extended...the temps up in the mountains of Flagstaff and at the Grand Canyon have been dipping into the 30's. Thankfully, no more 100's in the forecast for PHX in the extended. My local 10-day...Sun, Sun, Sun....love the morning sun rises...

Not likely to see the warmth surge east for any extended period...IMO, the GL's/MW are going to be stuck in a typical Fall-like pattern through at least the middle part of OCT. Meanwhile, the western/southern Sub experiences the typical Yo-Yo temp fluctuations as the seasons battle it out in the highly amplified N.A. pattern.

This is how a senior met at NOAA handles the situation in a professional manner.... https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/courage-strength-optimism/the-grotesque-politicization-of-hurricane-ian

Totally agree its running to warm up north and into the MW from what I'm seeing. The members farther west and south will be in the more volatile areas where I see big temp contrasts once we get past the middle of the month. That CF coming down next week means business. The Euro got even colder out west into the Plains.

Wow, I didn't realize that it got that chilly this past week in IA. Has biz picked up since the recent rains? Hope all is well for you...enjoy the nice weather this weekend!

CPC updated it's OCT outlook...big change from the previous Mid SEP run showing AN temps nation wide. Now it looks like they are suggesting more of a nation divided...East cool and west warm?? AN precip signal for the central Rockies and SW...Like I said before, from my experience of living here in the SW, something is changing and in a positive way. Have no Fear....Nature is Here...

The last 2 weeks of SEP ended up a lot cooler over the GL's/MW than how we started off SEP...ORD ended up with a monthly temp departure of +1.1F as the overnight lows led to a higher mean. Precip was just 1" BN (-0.99"), however, most of N IL did see a lot of rain.

Welcome to October! Boy, you guys in the MW/GL's region are looking at enjoying some bonafide warmer & sunny days before the next powerful CF hits later next week. These are the quintessential Autumn days that @bud2380reflects about. Enjoy the next few days! Now, remember that COPC 8-14 day a few days ago? That reversed course...still looking for that sustained period of Indian Summer to those who experienced their 1st Frost/Freezes? Might have to wait a bit longer... Love the wet look for the SW and CO Rockies....Let it Snow...nice way to kick start the Snow Season...more to come... The attn now turns for our members out west to see their 1st Frost/Freezes of the season. It is looking highly likely that an impressive early shot of colder weather is targeting a majority of the Sub next Thu through the following weekend. It's pretty neat to see this pattern evolve across N. A. as the 500mb amplifies. An entirely new pattern is shaping up and I can see this setting up Long Term Long Wave Troughs/Ridges in the "key" locations to deliver some potent colder weather in the weeks & months ahead. Check this out...I'll slow this down for all to see. The 0z Euro Op run from last night just did something that is pretty wild. Did it just unleash energy off the PV from the North Pole??? Look at the small trough that tracks down from the Archipelago region on the backside of the developing Hudson Bay vortex. They both phase together and crash down over the GL's region into SE Canada. Then, another trough rides down from the Arctic in N/S fashion for Round 2 around the 7th/8th???? Man, what a way to kick start the new LRC pattern and wipe away the old pattern.