Tom

It's the JMA weeklies update today...Room for AN warmth to surge north and east for a period. Week 2... Temp/Precip...Blow Torch for our members in the central Plains! Week 3-4...Pop goes the Western/NW NAMER Ridge...I see you trough off the So Cal coast...is nature "Drip, Drip, Dripping" signs of what is dialing up next LRC??? I think so. Temp/Precip...Not a bad way to finish off Met Summer. Wet and Wild from the West & SW into the Midwest! I will say, however, the big ridge may get beaten down enough to provide relief end of August for our southern members.

I concur! This precip map just says it all...Euro Op & GFS no bueno! I feel for you Texas and Oklahoma!

@Clinton, my gut was leaning towards the idea of you being able to escape the Death Ridge and it appears that the boundary will push enough south and keep you out of the HEAT! The Euro Op is playing catchup and the EURO AI...had the right "eye" on the blocking and cooler air pressing south. I'm sure your stoked!

As some have mentioned, this weekend into next week looks like a hyper active "Ring of Fire" over the same areas that pretty much got hit the past few days. The later parts of the week and into the weekend look...dare I say, "Fall-ish" near the Upper MW/Lakes??? 0z EURO...Check out 'dem DP's....ahhh, I can smell the bonfires! This time, however, it'll be some good ol' back yard fires. @james1976 I know you'll be firing it up and backyard grillin'!!!

We had another robust Dust Storm overnight around 1-2am that blew through the valley up from the south from decaying storms over Tucson. The models did quite badly indicating storms to fire up across the valley from outflows combing in the valley. Maybe next time!

@OttumwaSnomowreel in the last wave!

I agree with that sentiment, but when Global models begin to all simultaneously "see" something brewing up for Winter, it's interesting. The latest Euro shows much more high lat blocking from Autumn to Winter...I'm starting to see more blocking in NW NAMER this run compared to last run. Something to monitor if it is a "head fake" or more of a long term trend. Autumn... Winter...given the strength of the upcoming El Nino, this may be the best 500mb run for the winter whereby winter weather fans could see as a possible stormy scenario for much of our SUB. Much better run for the Lakes in terms of precip for sure compared to the CFSv2 dry signal. Meantime, the Heartland looks to be the place to be for our SUB or anywhere in the west/southwest.

@Clinton, I think the LRC will bust overall for any sustained Heat Wave over the heartland come next week, esp if all this rain is being forecasted! Practically every Global Ensemble is suggesting AN Precip from the Rockies into the C Plains/MW and Easter Cornbelt. That would be ideal! The EPS has even joined camp and pressing the cooler air farther south while its AI counterpart has been steadfast on a stronger push of cooler/wetter weather. The signal for a west-based -NAO is outstanding. It makes me wonder if this will become a consistent pattern over NE Canada as we enter Autumn/Winter. The CFSv2 is locked and loaded for a very strong -NAO. Could that be the saving grace for Winter fans??? Something I'm pondering about at this long range. 0z EURO AIFS... 0z Euro AIFS 500mb Day 1-5.... Every day/week its been suggesting a similar 500mb pattern up near Greenland. Consistency is the key. Let's see how this all plays out. The PDO flips as the strong jet pounds the west, yet, there should be room for some big dogs down by you and the S Midwest/S Plains.

Come on Monsoon, lets clear up this nasty dust...I believe in you! 12z HRRR showing what typically happens this time of year as outflow boundaries engulf the Valley from multiple directions and blow up storms over the entire valley.

I've been eyeing that period for a couple reasons....That is the weekend of the Air and Water show in Chicago 14-16th. Man, I miss watching the jets roar overhead! Chitown has the best back drop...all the pilots get very excited when they are recruited for this particular show. They absolutely love flying and ripping over the city and beaches! Can you imagine the views from up top???

We had a huge dust storm engulf the valley late last night around 10pm and woke me up to the sounds of the winds roaring through our complex. There is a lot of dust on my patio deck and definitely needs a cleaning! Would love to get some storm action to have nature "clear the air" a bit. Was supposed to send this post like 5 hours ago but I'll to it and a short vid I took in HD showing the vast dust in the air. IMG_8892.mov

@Hawkeye, you might have the hot magnet bc the Wed period looks quite active for IA. @OttumwaSnomow, this is that frontal boundary you always speak of that seems to always produce when there is juicy air around. @Clinton, I see you and your area right around that boundary as well as we get into late week. This summer up in the Arctic Circle has been one of the coldest ones in recent decades. Joe Bastardi talks about it quite a bit on his Saturday Summary's. I'm going to watch his latest video sometime later today but what I wanted to share is another fascinating wx pattern over N.A. that will transpire this week. Look way up yonder near the Arctic circle as a "mini PV" comes right off the North Pole, then hits the West-Based Greenland Block and tracks into the NW Territories of Canada, then eventually makes its way towards Hudson Bay producing a Fujiwhara effect! Mind you, this has been a reoccurring theme up there throughout this summer and I'm wondering if we continue to see this evolution into late SEP/Early OCT. Thinking back to when I remember seeing patterns up in the Arctic and the Archipelago Regions of N Canada, it was back in the Summer of 2013. I checked the arctic temps that year and yes, it was one of the more colder summers since the past 2 decades. This years summer has been remarkably colder...what does that mean as we along in the coming years, decades? Climate shift? Possibly. #BuildTheGlacier

Outside of today's dreary Saturday in Chitown, a Perfect 7-day...in fact, looking out towards the Air & Water Show weekend it is looking splendid!!!

Hello August! What a way to welcome the last month of met Summer...if you would have teleported me to Winter and showed me this radar loop, I would be under the impression that a robust clipper is dropping big time snows! Perfect Pivot for N IL/S WI...Flood Warning's issued for parts of DuPage/Cook county. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=realtime&frames=75&interval=15&year=2026&month=7&day=31&hour=13&minute=15

Happy Friday! Not gonna lie, I'm kinda jealous of the temps back home as a stretch of 70's/low 80's is gearing up for the extended. If you don't like the Heat, this is mother natures Treat! #Perfection