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Everything posted by Tom

  1. I highly recommend taking PCH down to LA and seeing all the nice beach towns. It’s a nice drive for sure. Glad the sun made its presence!
  2. From what I've learned in years past, the surface pressure pattern in the warmer parts of the early Autumn season don't necessarily mean it will be warm in the Winter. It usually is the opposite unless there is zero high lat blocking to dislodge colder air in the mid lats. For instance, looking at the same time stamp as your map above, look at the pressure pattern in the northern latitudes. This, to me, signals colder air would bleed south once it cycles back in Dec. In the summer, this would have an opposite effect and Canada should be blow torch hot as well as the inter-mountain west/Upper MW. I'm just thinking out loud here but I do like the fact that there isn't a raging jet blasting into the west which pumps the ridge over our Sub. Systems are showing signs of tracking into Cali and not just up farther north into the PAC NW during this opening week or so of Oct.
  3. Saw this cool shot from Spaceweather of the Gigantic Jet over captured over the Virgin Islands on the 20th of Sept....it towered over 50 miles into the atmosphere. Would love to witness something like this one day.
  4. When I was shopping at the grocery store a couple weeks ago in AZ, I happened to come across the Farmers Almanac and took a peak at their winter forecast and it certainly did look really wintry for a large part of the nation, esp the MW/GL's region. It's rather encouraging to see them dub this coming winter "The Season of Shivers"...time will tell...
  5. Speaking of the harvest moon, I saw it when I was in the plane on the tarmac heading back to Chicago from Arizona this past Monday. It was a magnificent site to see just above the horizon. I agree with ya, the models are doing some wacky things ATM, esp trying to figure out the blocking patterns. I do also see a strong southern jet setting up for periods this cold season. Enjoy the beautiful Autumn wx!
  6. The “September Sizzle”…did you get your first frosts yet? I saw there were some advisories issued yesterday to your west. Gotta get the Indian Summer wx outta the way. TBH, I’d rather see this prolong warmth in late Sept/Oct rather then during Nov (Thanksgiving) or Dec. Plus, you get to enjoy the outdoors a little more before real gloomy autumn wx settles in. Personally speaking, my grid only has a couple days in the mid 80’s and the rest in the 70’s with nothing but sunshine. That’s like a gift from nature. I’m sure the farmers are enjoying this dry pattern for harvesting crop.
  7. It doesn't look good bc that low is going to spin there through Sun...
  8. While combing through data this morning, I found an interesting 10mb forecast map off the CFS model for the month of Oct. Coincidentally, when I took a gander at the current 10mb strat animation it is very clear that both maps mirror each other. This is a big LR clue. In fact, it is almost an exact match to the location of where the Euro/UKIE and other climate models show a significant SSW event during the month of Dec. Nearly identical warming is happening in the animation below at 10mb....let's see how much this grows/expands as we head into Oct. Using this info as guidance, along with the BSR, I anticipate the models to show more ridging in the NE PAC/NW NAMER region towards the middle part of Oct. Will there be a significant model flip towards the 2nd half of Oct??? To early to say, but there is a LR signal that the later part of Oct could turn very cold.
  9. Only about .12" of precip from yesterday's FROPA...it's a chilly 51F with plenty of 40's out W & NW. It'll prob be the coolest morning of the season at ORD if we dip to 50F. It appears the better forcing is coming together as the CF moves through IN/MI as the radar has lit up with embedded heavier showers... http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=5&year=2021&month=9&day=24&hour=22&minute=0
  10. I know the feeling! When I was in AZ earlier this month I never adjusted to the 2 hour difference and was waking up at 3:00am everyday and in bed by 9:00pm...my body works like clock work and I find it very difficult to adjust to different time zones. Can't imagine going to Asia when its like a 12 hour difference. Heck, even going to Europe is a 7 hour difference from central time zone. Anyway, that's a whole other topic of conversation. Meantime, that cut-off low continues to spin over the SW parts of AZ delivering welcomed precip over the region.
  11. Good to hear from ya and enjoy the west coast trip. I love heading out to the west coast and seeing the ocean along with enjoying the beautiful wx (except for today). It’s rare to get that chilly out that way during the summer. That cut off low is ill-timed!
  12. The wx pattern over the next 7-10 days looks phenomenal around these parts. Not to hot, not to cool...plenty of sunshine and comfortable DP's...nothing but 70's and some warmer low/mid 80's for a few days later next week. The only "issue" I see is the drier pattern over N IL/S WI were the drought has intensified once again since it's been so dry this past month. If we'd have our first frosts, this wx pattern would constitute as prime time Indian Summer wx. In other news, it has been very dry in the SW/TX Pan Handle region but nature is going to flip that script and provide abundant moisture. The models are locking in on a ribbon of heavy precip up through the C Plains and SW... As we get closer to the period when the new LRC begins, I'm beginning to see a new pattern mixing in as we close out this month and enter the first days of Oct. Needless to say, I'm enthusiastic to see the wetter pattern setting up in the SW/S Plains. Nature providing some initial clues as I foresee this will be an exhibit to the new LRC pattern..."Southern Stream Storm Track"...there is just an overwhelming signal for blocking to be present across the north next month. Let's see how this all shapes up. LR GEFS....notice the ribbon of AN precip from Cali/SW/Plains into the GL's...hmmmm
  13. I was looking at the radar early yesterday morning and KZOO was getting hammered in some of the heaviest non thunderstorm rains I've seen in a very long time. It was great to see a spinning mid lat cyclone early on this Autumn season around these parts.
  14. I was thinking the same thing early this morning when I looked back at my notes of the LRC. Back in Oct 27th-30th, a very similar pattern set up and cycled these cutoffs through the year. Let’s see where it takes us as I believe it gets caught in the transition. The blocking is going to be massive to the north and east across the Upper MW/GL’s.
  15. Suddenly, this cut-off low in the SW is starting to perk my interest. Before I left AZ on Monday, the local mets had zero precip in their 7-day and already making calls that the Monsoon season is over. It officially ends on Oct 1st so if the Euro is right, this could very well easily place this season in the Top 10 list.
  16. For the most part, yesterday was a windy and cloudy day that had a chill in the air. Then, however, the sun popped out right as it was about to set. The city colors came alive and some photographers captured some cool shots. Waterspout season is in full effect....
  17. We have seen moisture laden systems but the missing ingredient..yes, you guessed it...the cold! I think that ingredient will be noteworthy this season.
  18. Our La Nina is growing boldly on the surface of the ocean...but look out below! My goodness, that's a lot of cold waters...
  19. This is quite interesting as I found another potential clue to how the new LRC pattern could be setting up. In a previous post, I posted a map from Ben Noll that showed in similar years that had a blockbuster SSW event in December, it lead to a stout LR signal for December of an active eastern/southern CONUS storm track. Yet again, my intuition drew me to look at last night's 0z EPS Northern Hemispheric 500mb pattern. I usually don't look at this particular map but this morning I was intrigued to do so. Call me crazy, but do you see the similarities for the opening week of October??? My goodness, it's almost a carbon copy...East Asian Storm Track, Gulf of Alaska LP, Massive Hudson Bay Block, Southern Stream storm track that connects all the way across the "pond" into Europe. Are you teasing me??? Man, this is the kinda stuff that gets me fired up and excited to see how Autumn sets up. How about the 0z GEFS??? It's also showing a similar set up...
  20. @bamwx also jumping on the early start to the Winter of '21-'22... Snowfall analysis of years with similar patterns...
  21. As we embark on the official start of Autumn at 2:21pm local time, our local photographer captured this sunrise yesterday that happens every year....#chicagohenge Meanwhile, over a week ago while I was in Arizona baking in the heat, I was also tracking back then what is now a timely 1st significant Autumn storm of the season. Nature always does it best but when she shows up in a timely fashion it makes it that much better to enjoy the change of seasons. Today, will feel just like it should...a classic autumn storm is shaping up for the lower lakes region. I can't help but think about similar beastly storms that took this track...reminiscent to the late 70's blizzards....gosh, did @jaster220 take his magnet with him??? It's nice to see a storm of this magnitude already showing up for the season. #Retrograde... @westMJim @tStacsh
  22. Another frosty night up in the Northwoods of MN and Wiso... @Beltrami Island are you in the advisory??? It seems like there have already been several chilly days/nights this season in this region that should allow for colors to begin showing up. I'm sure your already seeing that up north. @Madtown are you seeing some good color yet? I'm starting to think about taking a road trip up north and do some fishing and site seeing sometime in mid Oct.
  23. I was awaken by a heavy lake effect shower about a couple hours ago and sorta went back to sleep but got outta bed at 3:00am. The winds are getting pretty gusty out there this morning. Boy, what a way to open up Autumn as nature is not waiting to show her fury. The lake is going to get wild with waves building up to 16 feet! It'll be a bit choppy out there today...I'd like to see a map like this along with the colorful snowfall amounts...
  24. Daytime temps have held in the mid 60’s all day long with cloudy skies and a stiff northerly breeze. Today, marks the 1st day Fall has arrived in my book. I’ve been waiting for a day like this for a long time. #Autumn
  25. Glad to see you back! Congrats on the move and enjoy your 1st autumn storm of the season.
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