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Tom

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Everything posted by Tom

  1. 00z EPS members advertising a strong signal for an April version of a "front runner" cutting up into the lower lakes region...if this holds, it should push ORD past the 50" mark...I'm game...
  2. Strat warming, Displaced Polar Vortex and the growing signs of a strong -NAO block...not a pretty combo to finish off the last weekend of April (except for the western Plains states). Last nights 00z EPS says Winter ain't over just yet and some snow may be flying around the MW/GL's region.
  3. The CPC came out with their seasonal outlooks today and these are the maps for May. Since we don't have a summer thread yet, here are the summer maps...the signal is there for a central CONUS trough-like pattern and I'm really digging the SW Monsoon signal. Speaking of which, the ECMWF-UKMET superblend model also agree. The SW Monsoon is going to be a + signal for next year's cold season I believe. Late season hurricanes into the Baja??? The SE is going to see a lot of hurricane hits this year. Watch out Florida.
  4. The JMA weeklies not really looking that splendid, although, as daily avg temps are on the rise we have to take that into consideration. Week 2... Temp/Precip...wet eastern CONUS while the SW and Cali bake in the Heat... Week 3-4... Temp/Precip...SW continues to Bake...tongue of cool in the central CONUS/PAC NW. The eastern remains wet.
  5. Yup, you called it actually towards the end of the month into early May. That ridge will prob be transient based on the data I just looked at as the models are growing a stronger signal for -NAO block to open up May which could damper things around the MW/GL's region as the new month opens. These troughs will continue to come out of the Rockies next month and will likely produce a lot of severe wx for the S Plains. I have strong confidence that @OKwx2k4is in a prime location this year for severe wx. It should creep farther north later in May into June as the blocking wanes and the seasonal
  6. 00z Euro/EPS snowfall...keep on piling up the snow mother nature...they need as much as they can get
  7. You'll be the first to get pull out of this BN pattern come next weekend (24th/25th) as the SW ridge pokes into the Plains and really warms things up again. Not sure yet how long this will last but I bet it'll feel real nice after whats coming down the piper.
  8. Back to your "regularly scheduled programming"...global models didn't see this major cold coming for April...
  9. All the models agree the EPO tanks off the charts during next weeks cold period...tracking a potent Springtime arctic frontal boundary??? Edit: 00z Euro flashing another major snow event for Denver and the Front Range through this weekend...
  10. That was my worry and I remember there was a year not long ago MI and IN had a bad year for apples.
  11. Thanks for sharing the info. I'm wondering if the buds on trees, fruit crop, etc will be impacted. Might be a bit early to plant but I guess the farmers know better.
  12. How many of you have leaf out??? Vegetation growing??? If the 00z Euro is right, a hard freeze is coming down the pipe early next week.
  13. The JMA seasonal just came in last night and basically agrees with the Euro & CFSv2 weeklies for the month of May. Temp/Precip....wet & cool to rule...there is hope of a late month surge of warmth coming out of the SW/W later in the month. That's my prediction and I'm holding onto that idea. The model trended colder for the eastern CONUS compared to last run, esp the GL's region... FWIW, the next two months of June/Aug don't show any signs of excessive heat, similar to what the CFSv2 is advertising for the summer and
  14. Not just once, but there could very well be several visitations of lobes of very cold air coming down off the N Pole/Polar Vortex. Ummm, ya...it looks like nature isn't going to "flip the script" this April and looking like it wants to dial up some record cold...again...this time its the 2021 version. Late season Freezes are showing up in the extended on basically all the models now...it'll be a shock to my sisters system after staying here with us in AZ for the last couple weeks. Looking back a couple weeks ago, the climate models had a decent looking April in
  15. 00z Euro still aggressive with the snows up north..
  16. This is going to turn the wx pattern pretty ugly for a large part of the lower 48 to finish off the month...esp the northern/eastern parts of our Sub....signs of the southern ridge will pop in very late April into May. @Clinton, that's where I think the S Plains and possibly your region could benefit, or rather, score some severe wx from this pattern. Otherwise, the remainder of our members I don't see any good chances for severe wx until later in May. The final SSW warming event coupled with the blocking setting up and surrounding North American over the next few weeks is wild. Lock in th
  17. Looks like a lot of hail/wind reports yesterday but no tornado's...
  18. As twilight begins to emerge above the mountain ranges to my east, the MW is experiencing quiet the compact "beast"... I'm digging the pattern over here next week as a strong trough becomes cut-off from the main flow as the signature part of the LRC shows itself once again. This was the part of the pattern that sent waves of energy out of the SW for numerous days. Temps are to cool into the low/mid 80's...finally some relief from the 90's around here..more importantly, a lot of moisture/snow for the mountains where exceptional drought conditions continue. SLP deepening into the 990
  19. 12z Euro dumping a lot of late season snow...
  20. Wild stuff here... Extreme *all-time cold* in Alaska early this morning. Bettles just fell to -38°F breaking the April monthly record low of -37°F (April 7, 1986), records since 1951. Saturday morning will also be in the -30s.
  21. @OKwx2k4, looks like you may need to hunker down later tonight my friend!
  22. What in the world is going on in the Strat??? The last and final warming event for the season is looking to end with a bang way up north in our atmosphere across the Pole. I don't recall seeing this happen so late in the season and will likely play a big role towards the end of the month. #SolarMin Both GEFS/EPS are displacing the Polar Vortex into NE Canada or thereabouts. Boy, what an interesting weather pattern. Parts of the S MW may need to watch out for late season frosts/freeze's...
  23. Started a multi day storm thread/threat... https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/7864-49-414-gls-cutter/&tab=comments#comment-723264
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