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Tom

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Everything posted by Tom

  1. Ya, I'm really liking where the pattern is heading for the month of August. Those east of say, IA/MO region are going to have a wonderful week of weather. The following week is when some massive changes are brewing due to a significant spike in the +PNA signal. This could very well be a clue in the weeks and months ahead on how the models will behave in forecasting the extended range. In any case, the EPS just did something wild and traps a deep trough underneath a Canadian 500mb ridge. So much blocking showing up in and around our Continent. This could be the welcomed signal that @Andie @Iceresistanceand folks in the Plains have Long awaited. My gut feeling and personal opinion is this mid/late month cooling trend for the central US has a legit chance of verifying. 0z EPS 500mb Week 2 animation...
  2. Hello from the out skirts of the Great Salt Lake! We arrived just before 6:00pm local time and took us just about 11 hours from the PHX area. Gosh, it was quite the journey up here and I forgot how tiring it can get driving non stop while only stopping for gas. I drove up hwy 89 in between the mountain ranges soaking up the scenic views and driving through the small mountain towns along the valleys. It was a reminder how beautiful this country is out west and the fact that there are still people who live out in these small farm town communities. Plenty of farmers growing hay, cattle and such that live off the land. I'd love to spend some time here in the Winter when the mountains are snow capped. The Wasatch mountains to my east are impressive as they tower thousands of feet up in the air. We plan on driving up into Park City, UT for a day or two and enjoy the mountain lifestyle. Today, our plan is to spend a relaxing day at Crystal Hot Springs and soak in the mineral spa. https://www.crystalhotsprings.net/home/ It contains the highest mineral content in any hot springs in the world! In a 24 hour period, 940,000 lbs of minerals is carried to the surface with 2.3 million gallons of hot water that comes up from 8,000 ft below. Fascinating stuff right there. On another note, it appears N IL got socked by heavy rains to the SW of MBY. This morning may bring another round of heavy rains a bit farther north. Looks like a splendid week of weather once the rains pass to the south. It's going to be pretty hot out here with highs in the low 90's and clear skies through Wed before the Monsoon fires up Thu through the weekend. Have a great Monday!
  3. Morning vibes out here in AZ…driving up to Salt Lake City, UT! IMG_2019.MOV
  4. Awesome! Have fun on the water and stay cool my friend!
  5. The Monsoon seasons has been incredible thus far for the state of AZ. 95% of the valley has received over 1" of rain which is AN through this period of the season. There is a LOT more to come. The pattern is going to fire back up this weekend and then again the following weekend. I'm excited to capture some pictures while I'm out here and some videos. One thing I noticed right away while flying over the mountains was how lush and green they looked from up top. That was not the case when I left here back in the Spring. Very early yesterday morning morning there was a massive cluster of strong storms that erupted over the valley around 3:00am local time that swept the valley from East to West causing flooding and wind damage. The high temp was a very cool 93F (106F is Normal). Heading up into the low 100's today and its quite humid...it's like I never left the soupy air from back home. Of note, current DP at Scottsdale is 70F...make it a Fantastic Friday!
  6. Hello from the “Valley of the Sun!” Took a last minute trip out west for a couple weeks and take some road trips. Some views of the plane ride over the mountains of the SW…the lighter color of the shoreline of the lake below shows how much water has receded. The towering Thunderhead was a cool shot from 30,000ft+ in the air. IMG_1995.MOV
  7. Yesterday was a Big Severe wx day for our Michiganders...hope you guys out east faired well...some might not have power from all the wind reports...
  8. Awesome! Glad to see this front delivered for your area...how is the crop in general doing in the state of MO?
  9. @OttumwaSnomow are you finally getting some rain?
  10. Happy Hump Day! The pattern continues to cycle...check this out, remember how we opened up Met Summer way up near Hudson Bay? They had a rare Summer Snow storm back then and as we open August we see an identical pattern. This time, however, it may be a bit to warm to snow but the same pattern is cycling (63 days later). #HudsonBayVortex
  11. What a cute dog! I’m sure she will enjoy the snow!
  12. Boy, C IL has been getting rocked since early this morning from training severe storms....5-11" have been reported!
  13. I'm glad to hear of the recent hits...need some more of our members to get blessed! Hopefully something happens Wed/Thu period.
  14. Once again, the models had no clue in the LR of seeing cooler air around these parts. This week will feature volatile weather with surges of warmth, mind you, it won't be as HOT as the models were suggesting earlier on. I remember how much enthusiasm WGN was pumping on this weeks "so-called" Heat Wave. The producer is a Hot weather fanatic and suggesting mid/upper 90s for days. Nasso much anymore my friend! Prob only hit 90F tomorrow before the CF comes through igniting severe storms. Anyway, the LR pattern looks to feature pretty good shot for some BN temps for the eastern CONUS. @Phil might miss out on some nice late summer weather. @Timmy Supercell might have to prepare for more flooding concerns. 0z EPS...Cool to Rule for Week 2??? Man, the 0z Euro Control is pretty darn cool...it's been showing run-to-tun consistency, esp if the Greenland Blocking shows up and the +PNA pattern that ALL the models are locking onto. You can pretty much see the eastern MW/OHV is in the bullseye of precip.... @Clintongreat news for the farmers...
  15. Southside of Cedar Rapids just had a good cell move through...Iowa City getting hit hard...
  16. I read this interesting blog post this morning and would agree that the squirrels are quite aggressively digging up holes in my backyard. In fact, the other day I saw one of the squirrels that live up in my trees with a peanut in his mouth trying to find a home for that nut. https://wgntv.com/weather/weather-blog/squirrels-digging-through-gardens-is-this-a-sign-of-a-harsh-winter-ahead/
  17. As they say in the climatological world, it was a "Statistical Wash" for ORD...just (-0.1F) below normal temp wise but AN in the precip category...it's a far cry from the sustained Heat & Humidity those of you west & south of here. The weather pattern was quite diverse up this way which kept things interesting.
  18. That trip down I-10 you can really get the sense of the barron desert Landscape. The Monsoon has been really good this year. Enjoy the rest of your trip! Tucson got nailed yesterday or was it the day before.
  19. Gosh, I totally forgot to create a new thread...my mind was on work mode early this morning so I completely messed that up! Thanks @Timmy Supercell
  20. Some of the operational models are starting to sniff out a major eastern CONUS trough post 10th and lining up with the LR idea that we continue the "step down" in temps. @Andie, don't look now but the 0z GFS is crashing a trough and possibly beating down that "Texas Ridge"....it's not only the 0z GFS, but the 0z Euro Control is also mirroring the same idea. 0z EPS continues to cool the eastern/southern SUB Week 2... Next 9 days look quite wet for the eastern ag belt and will prob beat down the Drought in IN/IL/MI... Last, but not least....for our central members the pattern will likely fire up the "Ring of Fire" come this weekend...I smell a severe wx out break for the Upper MW and then settling south as a strong Summer CF crashes southward. Interesting pattern lies ahead. My gut tells me this will be a month of volatile weather and cater to the idea that most of us will see a quick end to Summer. Just a hint, but the middle part of the month could really deliver a "Taste of Autumn" for the GL's/MW region...big trough brewing??
  21. Welcome to the last month of Met Summer folks! I can't believe we are already in August...after dinner yesterday, I laid out on my deck just enjoying the beautiful breeze, comfy temps near 80F and DP's in the upper 50's. Such a gorgeous evening. I also was reminiscing on how wonderful our weather has been of late. This morning, I woke up and it was a bit sticky so I turned on the A/C. Got some small storms knocking on my doorstep.
  22. I'm surprised to see how cool it has been in and around KC this month...not gonna lie, it has been real nice over all up this way. I'm pleased with the way this month ended up coming together. We had our bouts of severe weather, Heat and Cooler temps mixed in.
  23. The pattern that keeps on giving...at least around here in the GL's and parts of the MW, the Summer ridge has had its moments early on in the Summer, but recently it has had a hard time to stick around in our area. The models are now capturing the blocking and instead of a prolong Heat Wave that was being advertised a few days ago, it now only looks like one day of Heat here on Wednesday, then back into the 80's...even some 70's depending on how close you are to the lake. Not only are temps being lowered, but precip chances are on the rise here both on Mon am & Wed pm. Take a gander at the 500mb map below off the latest 0z GFS run for Aug 3rd... 4 days ago there was an idea that we would ALL be worried off a BLOW Torch for days as a monster death ridge would encompass us all....nassoo much anymore around the GL's/MW....it will mostly be the eastern Sub will escape the sustained Heat. Interesting, both the 0z GEFS/EPS have trended wetter in the near term...
  24. @IMoveALot_Weather, I see there have been Flood Watch's hoisted in the mountains down in So Cal. Did any of the cells make their way down to the shore? I bet there have been some gorgeous Monsoon storm clouds to your east!
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