Hoosier

Smoke is moving into northern Chicago metro.

Enhanced risk now for Monday.

That's about the worst possible look for smoke to continue moving in from Canada, unless some better rains can start to help with the fires there.

A lot of places up north in Michigan have visibilities around 2 miles. So while that's not as bad as the other day, that is still pretty smoky. The HRRR output is not really handling the surface visibility reduction very well, so that aspect will have to largely be based on upstream obs. Looks like after 7 pm or so for the smoke to come back in here.

Actually looks like most of the smoke could blow south of here later tomorrow. But if that were to occur, then it could swing back into the area at some point on Monday as winds turn southwest. The modeled concentrations look to be less than what just happened, so hopefully the smoke won't be as bad this time.

This was one of the first tornado videos I remember seeing as a kid. That angle was so unique at the time.

Kind of an unusual situation around here tomorrow as storm motion looks like it will be due south, if not south southwest.

Here we go again tomorrow and Sunday. The HRRR underestimated the south/west extent of the smoke (as well as the density of it farther south) for the current event, so will be interesting to see if that happens again this time.

The Monday severe setup looks a bit interesting in the upper Midwest, and SPC has an area outlined. Will have to see what the smoke situation is like then and whether it will hold temps down at all, but the system looks dynamic enough that it may not make much of a difference even if temps end up a bit cooler.

Put this on grayscale so it's easier to make out the back edge of the more significant smoke. You can see the clearing moving into Lake Michigan where the color is darker, except for where clouds are now encroaching on the far western/southern part of the lake.

Hang in there. Visibilities have risen here markedly compared to this morning.

Well, as long as the fires keep going and the flow is coming out of Canada (which looks to be a recurring theme in the coming days), then we're going to be at risk for these smoke intrusions. Of course there are factors that determine how much smoke makes it down to ground level.

I saw a stat that the Chicago area broke its previous worst AQI number by like quadruple. I was outside for a while late yesterday afternoon/early evening, and there was an eerie silence. Normally I can hear kids playing or people working outside, but there was nothing like that. Right now the smoke is similar to how it was yesterday morning, which is better than it was during the afternoon/evening. Should see gradual improvement from southwest to northeast through the day today.

After a break tomorrow afternoon and a good part of Saturday, the HRRR is suggesting that smoke could advect back in here by Saturday evening.

An FU, courtesy of Canada. In all seriousness though, 3/4 mile visibility at ORD is pretty impressive. Don't know for sure, but I don't remember it getting below 1 or 1.5 miles at any time in 2023. METAR KORD 162230Z AUTO 07008KT 3/4SM FU VV019 29/15 A3003