Hoosier

White Sox fan here (barf at this season, lol) but I have a lot of respect for Cabrera, even though I watched him do a lot of damage to my fav team over the years. Looking past that, he was a joy to watch and a special talent with the bat. Although he fell off in recent years, there was a stretch where he was one of the best right handed hitters that the game has ever seen. Anyway, looks like we may make the mid 80s today.

Just a heads up, there will be a solar eclipse on Saturday, October 14. Most of us will see this as a partial eclipse (weather permitting, of course) but a narrow path from OR to TX will experience an annular eclipse. Times given on the point and click website below are in UTC, so be aware of that. For most of us it's generally a late morning and extending into early afternoon event. http://xjubier.free.fr/en/site_pages/solar_eclipses/ASE_2023_GoogleMapFull.html Just a little warmup for the big dog eclipse on April 8, 2024.

I'd root for the Nino to get as strong as possible. Would increase the chances of warmth but it would also increase the chances of some moisture laden systems in the region.

There are several factors that affect the timing and vibrancy of fall colors. Temps are one of them. How much that this upcomimg warmth will slow the process remains to be seen. May still notice the colors progressing, but would it be at a faster rate if it weren't going to be warm?

Better hope this thing can reverse in the next couple months of fall. If you go into winter still in drought, I doubt you'll exit winter without a drought. Even if it's a normal-ish winter in terms of precip, that won't be enough.

That chart you posted is the ONI chart, which does use region 3.4 for the measurements. So looks like we're all good. Most people would classify anything above 1.5C a strong Nino. Based on the trends and modeling, I don't think we're going to be able to keep that number below 1.5

I don't think there's a prayer that this Nino ends up as only moderate based on ONI. Now the bigger questions, assuming a strong Nino, are does it act more like a moderate Nino, how is the forcing distributed, how quickly does it start to fade, etc.

Yeah, we haven't seen the last of the heat by any stretch. Might not get to 100 again at ORD, but it's a warm look overall.

Sure is. Some perspective from LOT: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 301 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023 .SHORT TERM... Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023 Through Tonight... It`s another remarkably hot and humid day with areawide temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Chicago O`hare officially logged a 100F degree temperature at approximately 2:51 PM, the first time since July 6th, 2012. In addition, August 24, 2023 is now tied for the 5th latest 100 degree reading ever on record in Chicago during the calendar year. If the air temperatures weren`t hot enough, low-level moisture has struggled to mix downward this afternoon in spite of full sunshine and southwest winds of 15-20 mph. Surface dew points remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s areawide, including over the urban core of Chicago where moisture tends to mix more aggressively compared to outlying areas. As a result, heat indices range from 110F to locally 120F degrees at press time, with an earlier hourly heat index observation of 118F at Chicago O`Hare (100T/79Td). With a peak heat index near 116F yesterday, Chicago O`hare has officially logged 2 consecutive days with heat indices above 115F. This is an incredible (and frankly, somber) feat that has only occurred a few times in recorded history with the last time during the historic heat wave of 1995. All in all, we`re experiencing a historic and dangerous heat wave. Continue to check in with loved ones and neighbors and dial 911 if you or someone else is experiencing symptoms of heat related illness.

It's 100 at ORD, which is the first 100+ degree temp there since July 6, 2012. Also, the heat index of 118 ties the mark from the infamous July 1995 heatwave. Pretty impressed that it hit 100 with dewpoints remaining in the upper 70s.

As far as potentially hitting 100 at ORD, it looks more borderline to me now. I was originally thinking that it would happen fairly easily, and perhaps even go a degree or two over, but mixing seems a little shallower (dewpoint at ORD is still 78) and winds don't have as large of a westerly component as originally progged. 100 is certainly still possible, but it looks like it won't be so easy.

Still 88/80 at ORD after 11 pm. With the high dews and winds staying up in and around the city, the morning low is on track to be pretty obscene. I think there's a real shot of it not dropping below 82 or 83 at ORD. But whatever the low temp is, it won't hold through all of Thursday.

Prelim high of 98 at ORD, which is the warmest temp in Chicago this late in the year since 1985.

The breeze is such a difference maker on days like this. That's why I like when the wet bulb globe temperature is referenced in NWS discussions, as it's a more comprehensive indicator of how hot it feels outside. It takes into account additional factors like sunshine and wind speed. There is certainly a difference in how it feels with a heat index of 120 and 5 mph winds vs. a heat index of 120 and 20 mph winds.

Barring something unforseen like convective outflow or a quicker passage of the front moving down the lake, I don't see why ORD won't reach triple digits tomorrow. Temps aloft tomorrow look slightly warmer than today (and today may even approach 100 in a few hours). It will be a very warm start tomorrow morning with temps near 80, and there will be ample sun throughout the day along with pretty good mixing. So, I am calling for the first 100 degree day at ORD since July 2012, and the first one in August since 1991. The all-time August mark of 102 could well be in sight. It should at least be close.