Clinton

KC office talking about first freeze and possible flakes next week. For the late part of the week, going into next weekend expect fall- like temperatures, with a mostly dry forecast. The first part of next week might be a period to keep an eye on for a couple different facets. The more confident aspect is that some or most of the area could see its first freeze. This will be in response to a broad mid level trough which will sag into the area. A strong push of cold air will move in for the Monday and Tuesday time frame which will likely bring below average temperatures. Again, it`s very possible that some or most of the forecast area will get it`s first freeze by sometime next week. This will come on the order of 1 to 3 weeks after the normal area freeze. The less confident aspect is the prospects for some light snow to form. GFS has come in a bit more aggressive with the low level cold air, with a low level cyclone passing just south of the area. Even with a more aggressive and ambitious low level cold air advection regime it`ll be quite the undertaking to get any accumulating snow. But it is worth nothing that the more recent GFS was a bit more aggressive with the colder air and it`s juxtaposition with ongoing precipitation.

I agree with almost everything you said. The LRC is great at sniffing out when storms will happen and you can make some assumptions on how it will behave. I can't tell you what will happen right now in January and February, to many variables that are unknown but I'm starting to get a idea of what the end of November and first half of December could look like. I hope we have a lot of snow this Winter, we deserve it after missing close so many time last year.

I went over all of this with you just a few weeks ago and Tom did multiple times last year. The Chiefs are a mess I hope they can fix it.

The models just don't seem to be able to see the cooler air until it's right on top of us. Hope that gets better as the season goes on.

Last week the GFS showed upper 70s today.

Lezak seems very excited about this storm and I think for good reason.

Lots of storms means lots of opportunities and KC and Iowa folks are about to find themselves in the comma head of another major storm.

Looking ahead with you and using an average cycle length of 49 days (shorter cycle in La Nina years) would set my area up for some warmth the week leading up to Thanksgiving. If I'm close on that I believe right after Thanksgiving it's showtime! 4 corners low will clue us in.

The closes one was just east of Sedalia so not real close but the KC survey team has confirmed 5 touchdowns in the area. The largest was an EF2 near Purdin, Mo.

Big storm coming this week has us in its sights.

Too much reliance on models and not enough forecasting. They look lazy.

Can't draw it up much better for you than that. Maybe it will be a little whiter in 50 days or so for ya!

Good blog today from Lezak, he discusses this years pattern so far, the storm ongoing right now and the upcoming storm later this week. https://www.kshb.com/weather/weather-blog-hurricane-rick-heads-our-way-a-major-storm-develops

4 of them, 6th significant storm to effect the middle of the country since Oct 6th and number 7 is on it's way. The storm you predict for the first week of Nov, could be another slow moving soaker with a cold component to it.

Had a 50mph wind gust and 1/2inch of rain, but it's all over now and the sun is shining. Storm total for this one was 1.25 inches. On to the next one.