Clinton

Wow just an incredible storm system. I finished last night with 2.5 inches of rain . What an early start to severe weather season I was under my 3rd tornado watch of the year and Warsaw, Missouri near Lake of the Ozarks suffered significant damage from this tornado.

So far there's been 148 tornado warnings today. Still more to go.

I got another deluge of rain this evening. I picked up 2 inches in an hour and a half. There were several tornadoes in the area including 1 that did some low end damage in Butler, Missouri.

Tornado watches are up.

KC bumped to a moderate risk. Winds being the biggest threat.

Tornado outlook. This does feel like an outbreak is possible. A little bit of a battle between the HRRR and 3km NAM going on. The Fv3 has me concerned as well.

12z HRRR looks real nasty here tomorrow afternoon.

All is good here, it was a big one down there. I would guess a EF2 or 3.

Nast looking debri signature on a tornado in Clinton, MO about 20 miles south of my place.

Looks like a STW will be issued shortly for the KC area. Tornado watches further south into Oklahoma.

I just noticed KC broke a record yesterday. ***Record*** Kansas City broke the record warmest low temperature for the date (4/14) yesterday when it had a low of 71° breaking the old record of 68° set in 2006. #RecordBreakingKC

Had some more thunderstorms this morning that dropped. 30 inches. HRRR and 3km NAM are coming in stormy this evening and a major severe weather outbreak looks likely Friday.

Meso discussions on going. Mesoscale Discussion 0419 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern IA...southern WI...and northern IL Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 141756Z - 142000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The risk of supercells capable of producing several tornadoes (some strong to intense), giant hail, and severe wind gusts will increase by around 19-22Z. A tornado watch is likely within the next couple hours. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis depicts a quasi-stationary boundary extending from central/northern IA into southern/central WI, with an additional composite outflow boundary farther south from northeast IA into northern IL. Over the next few hours, continued diurnal heating of a moist air mass (upper 60s dewpoints) should erode remaining inhibition at the base a substantial EML, resulting in the development of strong surface-based buoyancy (upwards of 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). As this occurs, initial thunderstorm development is expected across parts of central/eastern IA near the intersecting boundaries by around 19-22Z -- aided by a subtle frontal wave tracking eastward along the quasi-stationary boundary. The strongly unstable air mass coupled with 40-50 kt of effective shear will favor rapid thunderstorm organization/intensification into semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters. Initially, very large to giant hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts will be the main concern with potentially splitting supercells -- given a mostly straight hodograph. However, a south-southwesterly low-level jet will strengthen across the area later this afternoon into the evening and likely favor a transition to dominant right-moving supercells with a quickly increasing tornado risk. The strong buoyancy and 200-300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support strong to intense tornadoes with any longer-lived supercells, along with a continued risk of giant hail and severe gusts. Eventually, thunderstorms may have a tendency of growing upscale into clusters with eastward extent, which will yield an increasing risk of damaging wind swaths. A tornado watch will be issued within the next couple hours. Mesoscale Discussion 0422 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Areas affected...Parts of central IL into northern/central IN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141855Z - 142100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an increasing severe risk. While confidence in overall storm development/coverage and evolution remains uncertain, a watch issuance is possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...In the vicinity of a remnant/increasingly diffuse outflow boundary draped across parts of northern/central IL, weak low-level warm advection is promoting gradually deepening cumulus and isolated convective initiation in central IL. Based on the motion of these echoes and character of the cumulus on day cloud phase imagery, this activity may be rooted above the boundary layer. Nevertheless, temperatures climbing into the lower 80s amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints will continue to erode inhibition at the base of the EML and could eventually support a transition to surface-based updrafts. If this were to occur, 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of effective shear (characterized by a long/mostly straight hodograph) would initially favor discrete/semi-discrete supercells and clusters -- with a risk of very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts. With time, a strengthening low-level jet will result in enlarging clockwise-curved hodographs (200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH) and an increasing supercell-tornado risk. With all that said, the limited/nebulous synoptic and mesoscale ascent casts uncertainty on storm development/coverage and overall evolution -- especially given lingering inhibition. Convective and environmental trends are being monitored, and a watch issuance is possible this afternoon.

Video from the KC area tornado.

We had a slight risk but the feeling was the cap would hold.