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Everything posted by Clinton

  1. KC office talking about first freeze and possible flakes next week. For the late part of the week, going into next weekend expect fall- like temperatures, with a mostly dry forecast. The first part of next week might be a period to keep an eye on for a couple different facets. The more confident aspect is that some or most of the area could see its first freeze. This will be in response to a broad mid level trough which will sag into the area. A strong push of cold air will move in for the Monday and Tuesday time frame which will likely bring below average temperatures. Again, it`s very possible that some or most of the forecast area will get it`s first freeze by sometime next week. This will come on the order of 1 to 3 weeks after the normal area freeze. The less confident aspect is the prospects for some light snow to form. GFS has come in a bit more aggressive with the low level cold air, with a low level cyclone passing just south of the area. Even with a more aggressive and ambitious low level cold air advection regime it`ll be quite the undertaking to get any accumulating snow. But it is worth nothing that the more recent GFS was a bit more aggressive with the colder air and it`s juxtaposition with ongoing precipitation.
  2. I agree with almost everything you said. The LRC is great at sniffing out when storms will happen and you can make some assumptions on how it will behave. I can't tell you what will happen right now in January and February, to many variables that are unknown but I'm starting to get a idea of what the end of November and first half of December could look like. I hope we have a lot of snow this Winter, we deserve it after missing close so many time last year.
  3. I went over all of this with you just a few weeks ago and Tom did multiple times last year. The Chiefs are a mess I hope they can fix it.
  4. The models just don't seem to be able to see the cooler air until it's right on top of us. Hope that gets better as the season goes on.
  5. Lezak seems very excited about this storm and I think for good reason.
  6. Lots of storms means lots of opportunities and KC and Iowa folks are about to find themselves in the comma head of another major storm.
  7. Looking ahead with you and using an average cycle length of 49 days (shorter cycle in La Nina years) would set my area up for some warmth the week leading up to Thanksgiving. If I'm close on that I believe right after Thanksgiving it's showtime! 4 corners low will clue us in.
  8. The closes one was just east of Sedalia so not real close but the KC survey team has confirmed 5 touchdowns in the area. The largest was an EF2 near Purdin, Mo.
  9. Big storm coming this week has us in its sights.
  10. Too much reliance on models and not enough forecasting. They look lazy.
  11. Can't draw it up much better for you than that. Maybe it will be a little whiter in 50 days or so for ya!
  12. Good blog today from Lezak, he discusses this years pattern so far, the storm ongoing right now and the upcoming storm later this week. https://www.kshb.com/weather/weather-blog-hurricane-rick-heads-our-way-a-major-storm-develops
  13. 4 of them, 6th significant storm to effect the middle of the country since Oct 6th and number 7 is on it's way. The storm you predict for the first week of Nov, could be another slow moving soaker with a cold component to it.
  14. Had a 50mph wind gust and 1/2inch of rain, but it's all over now and the sun is shining. Storm total for this one was 1.25 inches. On to the next one.
  15. Strong line of storms about 20 min to my west. Looks like they're about to go severe.
  16. Tornado Watch until 10pm. First Tornado Watch for KC in 880 days.
  17. 6z Euro members further west vs12z GFS members. Hope the Euro right.
  18. I agree and wow what a storm. It's hard to imagine another storm in the pattern impacting a larger area than this one.
  19. This is from Gary's blog this morning discussing todays storm and the monster of a storm showing up mid-week. Exciting times ahead, also of note is that LRC cycles in La Nina years tend to be shorter typically less than 52 days. It has snowed in three straight Octobers, and this storm is the type of storm that can do it, but it will be way too warm in this first LRC cycle. When this part of the pattern cycles back through in December, it may very well be a major snowstorm. So, remember these two storm systems as they are in this year's cycling pattern that has started out rather fascinating.
  20. Small line of thunderstorms pushing through this morning has been nice to wake up to. Looking ahead to this afternoon both the 3km NAM and HRRR have a strong line of storms to my east near hwy 65. I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC shifts both the slight risk and enhanced risk further east today which is fine with me. I don't want my football interrupted by some D**n tornado. @OmahaSnowFan north central MO between Marshal and Moberly might be a good chasing spot today.
  21. Will do. Those will be big storms in central Missouri, they are forecasted to get going right over me.
  22. Straight south of KC on I-49 is flat but as you go east toward me and hwy 65 it gets rougher. Message me if your in the area, looks like I'll be in the hatch area but the real fun might be off to my east.
  23. Picked up .75 in the gauge this morning. The weekend is off to a wet start.
  24. Spot on. Is the 12z GFS trying to tease you with some flakes on the 1st? I hope it's on to something.
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