Black Hole

What's the typical El Nino effect for my part of the world, especially for winter?

Did a little mini chase for the storms around Tulsa yesterday. Got into a microburst with just a few feet of visibility so I pulled over. Some stations in that area recorded 1-2" of rain with as much as 3" in north Tulsa. It was nice to see since its been dry so often for much of the spring. I'm starting to see some hype about a storm pattern in 7-10 days. I guess we will see.

May ended up quiet, just like the rest of the month. I'm hoping June turns out differently! It does look like we have a chance of some storms tomorrow for Tulsa and maybe around next Tuesday or so. Still, nothing major as best as I can tell.

Should get some rain with a few thunderstorms possible Thursday-Friday but otherwise mostly quiet for the next week. Still, totals could end up pretty solid for this storm. Overall it's been a pathetic excuse for a severe weather season with no severe weather reports near me the entire spring. Absolute deadzone. We are moving out of peak severe season at this point so now I'm mostly just hoping we avoid hot weather for as long as possible.

It's looking more interesting now starting mid week. Some definite storm chances with a marginal severe potential Wed-Fri. Storm chances continue over the weekend with some models showing some better severe potential.

Pretty quiet pattern until May 4th or 5th, then we may get back into some activity. However, I don't see a good set up for any sig severe potential for my area until around May 9-10th at the earliest.

1.5-3" of rain fell across Tulsa the last 3 days. There were a few isolated storms, but pretty tame for this time of year with a winter-like feel out there. Looks like another storm tomorrow afternoon into Saturday that could bring another decent soaking. It's nice to see after almost a month of dry weather. No sign of meaningful severe weather here anytime soon.

Definite change of the weather pattern coming up. Sunday-Thursday looks pretty wet for the area, and possibly longer than that, as that upper-level low sets up over the northern Plains. Still no rain this month for me, but that will be changing.

No rain at my place for April so far, pretty weird. At least its mostly been reasonable weather otherwise. Probably going to miss out on the severe potential the next two days too. Models do look wetter to close out the month but I've seen that story already this month...we will see.

I've been seeing ground fog the last few mornings near empty fields and creeks around the area. That looks like a golf course, so probably lots of water available to form some patchy fog!

There is a marginal severe risk today as a few storms fire up along a low level boundary. Most of the action should be west and north of me, but I may get some leftovers. Next chance of something looks like around Friday or so.

Looks quiet for a while for Tulsa. Next legit chance of severe weather is probably 7-10 days out.

Nothing happened for me in Tulsa, unsurprisingly. Some good storms to my east again though. Looks quiet for a while now.

I'm probably on the outside looking in by the look of things again today. A few cells could pop up over southeast OK in the warm sector this afternoon, moving northeast. The front will probably light up right as it passes my area near midnight. One of these days..

Nice lifting trough ejecting out of the southwest here on the morning of the 31st. Deep moisture ahead of the dry line too. Good low level jet. Upper level diffluence looks solid. Plenty of CAPE will be present. Should see some storms pop up, which has been well advertised by the SPC, etc. We will see what happens, but my guess is that this gets going either right over me or just east...with a significant event for AR/MO.