Black Hole

On the other hand, this is close to something really spectacular on the 12z ECMWF control run at day 15. If that PNW ridge could build a bit further north we'd be in business.

There is no denying that the weather we have seen so far has not resembled 2009-2010 and it's also true that in some ways it's not as good of an analog as I thought it was a few months ago...but we should be clear that this was never the part of the year it was likely to match up with anyway. The thing that makes 09-10 a good analog is where the El Nino forcing is coming from. We will match that fairly well from now through the end of winter. However, el nino forcing typically manifests more strongly later in the winter. To that end, the very different outcome so far between 09-10 is because the el nino influence has been lesser. In that sense, it could be two different paths to the same outcome (for late winter anyway). I am not saying that is for sure, but it's important to understand that things could change a lot for the 2nd half as this forcing increases and a likely SSW develops. Things could really change in a hurry during January. We will have to see.

We'll get the nicer plots from sites like wxbell later, but here is the new ECMWF seasonal. It's mostly maintained the same look as before, but the height anomaly pattern is slightly more robust. Definitely a slight nudge NW with the neutral to negative height anomalies over the mid section of the country.

It's worth noting that this stretching event is a precursor to the SSW coming later on, towards the end of the month. With that said, PV stretch events can work out great. This one may allow for a wave reflection, sending colder air south much like we saw last December or in Feb of 2021. Not necessarily as cold of course.

GFS showing a very stretched if not split PV near day 11. The model is showing some kind of tropospheric response by the end of the run with higher heights across Canada and lower heights over the US. The ridge along the west coast would need to amplify a bit more to really send the coldest air south. The GEFS agrees though unsurprisingly its not quite as strong.

In regards to the 2015 comments earlier, there was a pretty strong system near Christmas that year with a foot of snow in north Texas and blizzard conditions. Even in an overall warm background, we can still potentially do well with the right storm. I think Tulsa missed out on snow with that, but we had flooding rains. There was a tornado outbreak in central/eastern TX

The ECMWF does not show this as snow in Tulsa but that's nonsense. This would be a guaranteed multi inch snowfall for my area. What a beautiful set up. Too bad most guidance develops this further east and it never gets as strong either.

For the most part models have been in good agreement on a deep trough over the west trying to move this way and a subtropical intrusion of moisture...but its been out of phase. Today, a few of the models bring them in at the same time giving the potential for a snow or ice storm near Dec 12th (+/- a few days) Here is the CMC for the 10th with a sig snow storm and some ice over NM/NW TX. Lots of rain for the rest of OK (or ice if there is more low level cold air). As the upper level low closes off and moves east it spins up a good surface low. The run doesn't go far enough to see the final result but this would be a snow or ice event for much of OK and the surrounding areas. Now look at the ECMWF control for this period. This is probably a lot of snow in western OK and southern KS and ice for NE OK. Now as the low tracks east it looks like a lot of snow for OK/KS/MO. Given that we are relying in the forecast of an ejecting closed low phasing with adequate moisture as well as the right timing of the cold air from the north its bound to change a bunch but at least we have something to watch now.

Yeah that's true! Plenty of snow in Utah to keep me satisfied. Last winter sucked for snow, and before that I was in Phoenix. So it's been 3.5 years since I've seen a decent snow. So yes, I sure hope this year delivers. That wind event was a bit much, hopefully we don't do that again for a while ha

My timing of living in Portland was really so bad in the grand scheme of things. We did have a good event in January of 1998, but that was the last big snow I saw there outside of the winter of 2003/2004. I moved out in fall 2007. Looking at the data for the airport, not counting 03/04, there was...total...7.9" of snow from Feb of 1998 to August of 2007. Obviously 03/04 was better with 12.3" on its own. Things have sure turned around since then.

I got a half inch of rain at my place today as this storm is lifting northeast. That looks to be it down here but at least it'll reset the fuels and keep the fires down.

The ECMWF Weekly Control run is absolutely lit this morning with the perfect pattern for some big-time winter storms in the Plains. This is in January so its a ways away, but it does agree with the EPS weekly signal even though its muted as would be expected. If we can survive this dull Dec it does look more interesting in January.

The GFS is doing some good wishcasting this morning, but I don't care I love to see it! Although in reality just looking at the set up this could easily be a bunch of cold rain or ice. Oh well, I can worry about that in 10 days if its still there.

You may have seen these maps from webberweather on twitter: Interesting that this looks pretty close to what we are seeing this month. A preferred storm track up the central Plains, with a lot of heavy rain along the southern part of the cold front along the Gulf Coast. Now compare that to the EPS and my hand drawn map. Seems to be a continuation. My take on this is that the central Plains, meaning the areas that just scored with the last storm or perhaps a little north should do quite well on average the next few weeks and possibly beyond. It looks very wet along the gulf coast. I might be in the screw zone with little winter or severe weather but at least it'll rain.

EPS showing strong support for a weaker SPV through the month with a good chunk of members showing a SSW event near the New Year. Certainly good to see and may juice up the winter weather threat in January.