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Black Hole

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Black Hole last won the day on December 21 2023

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  1. We have to start somewhere! I'm ready for winter already, but we won't even reach seasonal maxes for another month unfortunately.
  2. 36 hour rainfall shows how wet it's been in southern Texas. Luckily rain mostly stayed reasonable with just one report above 6" that I saw on here. 3-5" would cause minor flooding when spread out over a whole day.
  3. I lived there 2019-2022. the first summer (2020) nothing at all happened until late July, and it was just a couple of days with scattered stuff and that was it. On the other hand, both 2021 and 2022 had rain in Phoenix by June 23rd or so. June only averages 0.02" so its definitely not common, but seems to be more common in recent years...perhaps as the summer high builds north a bit earlier.
  4. Hot and dry (but with humidity ) for the next week before we get a rain chance it looks like. There may be a well timed trough to the north and tropical intrusion to the south such that rain develops over the area. I think this could easily disappear but it's about all I have to watch for now. Ensemble mean has PWAT of 2" and good instability for that period so heavy rain and storms may both be possible.
  5. This could be a problem, and it's got some ensemble support.
  6. Here is another from early March of 2019. We ended up with 13", including 4" in one hour.
  7. Here is an old photo of mine I found of a snow storm from just north of Salt Lake City back in January 2017. Just something fun to look at as we head into summer.
  8. We hit 93 today in Tulsa. Looks like temps drop a little bit into Wed and Thurs, with highs of around 90F, but then we warm back up towards the weekend. Rain chances still look low through the next week, but model guidance is perking up a bit for some better rain chances the last week of June. Some models like the 00z GFS even have a pretty strong cold front during that period, so we can hope.
  9. Ugly looking pattern on the EPS weeklies with definite drought conditions settling in for a good chunk of the southern Plains the next 6 weeks. Obviously if this happens it'll be quite hot.
  10. You'd never have a shortage of times to mow down here! The grass seems to keep growing no matter how dry it is I've already mowed maybe 8 times this year, and I suspect plenty more times to go until the final mow in late October or early November sometime.
  11. We've been dry for 9 days in a row now and I don't see any good chance of rain for another week or more. We will have some slight chances early next week, but meaningful rain just isn't going to happen. Meanwhile, it's been pretty warm with a number of days in the 90s and with relatively high humidity too. Summer is here.
  12. Interesting to see plotted what I've observed since late winter. A very very long season of at least periodic reasonable temperatures. You can see the well above normal temperatures in Feb to Mar with many days in the 70s to even low 80s. By April we were getting less cold extremes, but the warm extremes were still in the 80s. Then for May to June (so far) we've mostly avoided any seriously above normal temperatures with the daily range mostly narrowing. In the end it hasn't meant every day is nice, but it has meant at least every few days there has been a good day or two to get outside since the end of January here. We are finally about to leave that window, but it's been a good 4 to 4.5 months.
  13. It sure is a different world up there. It's been 2.5 months since we had a low in the lower 30s! I thought we did pretty good with our 58 yesterday!
  14. Interesting split on models at around 10 days out. It looks like the ridge will move east with a big moisture plume and potential TC wrapping around it into the TX-AL corridor. GFS shoves it all east but the AIFS pulls moisture further west. The difference is hot and dry vs wet, humid, and rainy for me. It'll be interesting to see which camp ends up correct.
  15. The pattern looks good for ridge riders from your area up into southern Canada and then east into the Great Lakes area. I suspect you will do fine up there once the ridge flexes.
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