Black Hole

For AZ it looks like more of the same. Dry clippers hitting NE Arizona with periods of breezy conditions and mild temperatures. Already seeing a few small fires pop up.

The mountains in Utah have done exceptionally well lately. SLC had a huge snow a few days back and broke their February 1 day record with over 11". The crazy thing was that it was not from a deep strong system, but instead from instability showers with some lake effect mixed in.

That sure was quite a cold snap east of the Rockies! It was chilly but nothing amazing for SLC. Down here in AZ you'd hardly even know anything was happening.

Back to boring it looks like. Probably no rain for a while.

Got another 1/4" yesterday from a cold front rain band. Probably dry for a few days now but maybe another weak system the middle of next week.

Over the series of storms I've managed about .80" so far, but some places have seen much more. The mountains to my north got blasted with over 30" and blizzard conditions in the last storm. Looks like another .10-.50" across the area this afternoon and maybe another storm next week. This sure is a change from before!

Thanks! Looks like a really nice place to live. Not as much snow as I'd like, but plenty of severe weather. Anywhere would beat Phoenix though haha

A applied for an opening at the NWS office near Knoxville. I guess if I get it I would post in this thread more often. Too bad we don't have more east coast posters.

Parts of SW Arizona near Yuma have had over an inch and a half the last few days. Just .08" at my house so far but this storm cycle is just getting going. Looks like Saturday-Sunday I could pick up .25-.75" of rain with perhaps 6-12" of snow in the mountain areas. A very cold storm drops in Monday-Tuesday. Some models even going for snow in the foothills around Phoenix. But I expect another .25-.50" with that and 10-20" in the mountains. This will probably save us heading into summer this year.

We just issued a flash flood watch for parts of SE Cali and SW Arizona. I don't expect as much in Phoenix this round, but over the weekend it looks promising.

Still some uncertainty with how it all plays out and this could easily bust, but it does seem likely we get some rain with the system coming in. The upper level low will tap into a remnant AR stream that has been sagging south and pump it into AZ on Tuesday-Wednesday. Somebody will probably get some decent rains but I expect most spots at least get a tenth of an inch or so.

EC Mean for next Tuesday night.

Looks like we might get a cut off low to pump in some rain next week. Flagstaff might get a lot of snow so that would really help.

What are you at for this winter now?

Overall seems to be a growing consensus for lower heights over the western USA. Hopefully it turns into something good for many of us.