rsktkr

This is my backyard.....more snow than we have had in years.

I'll measure and post another pic.

Same angle more snow....

Some sticking snow here in Mac.

I'll take it!

The problem with these late winter surges of cold/snowy weather is by the time the cold and snow arrives my mind has already switched gears and started looking towards spring and summer. So when it arrives I'm pretty meh about it.

I really wish November, December, and January could deliver the goods but I guess I would have to relocate to get that.....that isn't going to happen. I love it here too much. I'll deal with it.

Onward!

I picked a bad time to check in on the snowy weather discussion.

Give it to me straight.

What are the odds (%) the latest trend reverses and we finish the winter with 50 deg rain from here on out?

If these models run the table like this we are going to hit 500 pages for this months thread before it's all said and done.

Has that ever happened?

The only question now is.....when does the rug get pulled?

Tonight? Tomorrow? This weekend?

It won't get me this time. I am prepared!

Rug pull once again.

That was fun....not really though.

How's spring looking?

It seems REALLY obvious that models beyond six days are 100% worthless so why are they a thing?

Why do people even look at them?

This is not a downer, weenie emoji comment it's a serious question.

It's very apparent that when a pattern does verify it's not only rare but it's also a fluke that is not based on accurate science but instead based on coincidence.

Wouldn't it be a LOT funner to invest all of this time and effort on a deeper analysis of the next six days?

For me that's far more interesting and educational than what is happening now with all of this roller coaster model riding.

Looks like the models are having a light saber fight regarding what's going to happen after Jan. 9th.

2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I don’t know why so many people get down in the dumps when the long-range models are crap. Model accuracy has been crap this year. The solstice snow didn’t even show up until four or five days out. A white New Year’s Day could easily be in the cards and we just don’t know it yet.

BINGO!

Winter '20-21 felt over before it began in The Willamette Valley. Early cold feels like a bad omen to me. 

I do like the support this group offers to people that get down in the dumps about yet another blah winter. The encouraging comments about it still being early and how things can change quickly are all awesome but there is something to be said for adjusting to the fact that this winter is not going to deliver. I have stopped thinking optimistically and started thinking realistically and I feel a lot better. It's not a distraction now at least.

Onward!

Something just happened.

I don't know what it was but I just got a shiver and a vision of frozen landscapes.....like a massive shift just occurred.

I can sense it.

We better watch the models close because this could be BIG!

Full on disturbance in the force stuff.

Disclaimer: This happened after several bong hits and a shot of Jack but I am sure the two are unrelated.

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At this point I would go with better than even odds of SLE pulling an average high above 50 this month. 

BRUTAL. What have we done to deserve this?

Has there ever been a reverse rug pull in the PNW region?

Meaning models were looking grim/boring but at the last minute everything changed and we wound up with the goods?

We get the rug pulled on cold/snowy weather CONSTANTLY so I would imagine it has happened in reverse but I haven't lived here long enough to have experienced one. 

8 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Life update even though Ik you guys don't care. I just applied for graduation for my bachelors and should be done in the spring. Then onto grad school!!

Good job nerd.....Ha! 

Congratulations!!

I don't get bummed out by crappy model runs beyond 6.5 days.....its all fake news.

I also don't get excited about awesome model runs beyond 6.5 days out.....its all fake news.

This philosophy has worked well for me since I moved up here.

I won't get excited about this "sea change" event advertised for mid-December but I sure do enjoy watching things unfold here in this forum. You guys make it all very interesting and I appreciate that.

It's strange how I like the bleak model runs so much.

Things change so fast. That means bad model runs can flip the script super fast just like great model runs can.

When we are enjoying great model runs I am constantly nervous because a flip means we flip to bad. When model runs are bleak we have the potential to flip to great.

Therefore, I'm just fine with bleak model runs because a fast flip brings the goods.

I know bleak runs sometimes come to fruition but I still enjoy the constant state of a possible positive flip as opposed to the opposite.

Weird stuff I know but that's how my brain works. Ha!

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You could very well be right.  On the other hand I'm not sold on anything beyond day 7 or so yet.

That's exactly how I feel. I doubt everything, good and bad, that shows up on models beyond 6.5 days.

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is raining, which is unusual when compared to last November. 

Good point. I stand corrected.

I am going to go ahead and say that absolutely nothing unusual has happened weather wise here today.

Not very breezy at all.

I would definitely not use the word windy to describe today.

Maybe it's not over but so far it's a non event for us.