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MikeInEverett

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Everything posted by MikeInEverett

  1. MikeInEverett
    Your new profile pic
  2. MikeInEverett
    How’s the Euro looking with the arctic front for tomorrow?
  3. MikeInEverett
    00z Euro looking a bit north so far.
  4. MikeInEverett
    That is Puke worthy right there
  5. MikeInEverett
    I will be so jealous but also so happy for y’all down south if that run verifies!
  6. MikeInEverett
    Feel like models will definitely fluctuate a bit more as we wait for the arctic front to push south. After we see how aggressive the arctic air really is things will solidify more.
  7. MikeInEverett
    South!
  8. MikeInEverett
    Looks very similar to its 18z run so far.
  9. MikeInEverett
    As we have said literally every day the last ten days, this is going to be the most important run ever
  10. MikeInEverett
    If this is a start of a continued northward trend, it would make people that threw out the GFS look extremely silly.
  11. MikeInEverett
    Good call, ICON is horrible with precip type.
  12. MikeInEverett
    Woah. Wonder if this trend will continue and the GFS reverses it’s south trend or if models will all finally meet in the middle and stay where they are going tonight.
  13. MikeInEverett
    On the 12z NAM the northern-most extension of the precip shield was in Salem. On the 00z NAM the northern-most extension is Centralia.
  14. MikeInEverett
    This was the 00z NAM the night the snow started. North King and South Snohomish county are white. This made me lose so much trust in the NAM
  15. MikeInEverett
    NAM is very underwhelming for the Puget Sound with the arctic front. Note that it said I would get nothing with the 12/2021 arctic front 8 hours before the event started when I got 5”, and that I would get 10” with a snowstorm last winter the night before and I got 2”.
  16. MikeInEverett
    It’s coming
  17. MikeInEverett
    Not saying it will happen because it probably won’t, but we’ve seen some pretty crazy northern jumps with these things before, models aren’t very good with these setups.
  18. MikeInEverett
    This event definitely proves that record cold in the winter is still possible, even if it may be more rare. Imagine if that block was just a little bit stronger, we’d be seeing temps we haven’t seen in decades. (We may already see temps we haven’t seen in decades even with it being watered down)
  19. MikeInEverett
    HRRR can be discounted this far out. I think I remember someone mentioned it’s better to use as the event is happening rather than before.
  20. MikeInEverett
    Always hope for a Feb 3rd 2019 scenario where a deformation band forms and drops 6-10” in a pretty wide area that never really showed up on the models. Although that had more over-water trajectory and the ECMWF showed a pretty widespread 2-3” across the sound with that one.
  21. MikeInEverett
    Feel like this is a bit harsh on the GFS considering it was the first to pick up on some of the recent changes. Would be funny if this came back to bite him as unlikely as it is.
  22. MikeInEverett
    12/26/2021 vs. Chicago was a snow game. Pretty good Arctic Front snow for most of the Puget Sound that day.
  23. MikeInEverett
    Yeah I don’t have a great feeling either. I usually always have a feeling that crazy surprises will happen, but the lack of over water trajectory with the trough is rough. Won’t be a ton of moisture to work with. The thing to watch for us is if the CZ stalls out for a bit or is heavier than forecast
  24. MikeInEverett
    Sounds like you’re trying to reverse jinx yourself!!
  25. MikeInEverett
    Northerners might need the Arctic Front to pull a lot of the weight for this event to turn out great
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