Esquimalt

The 18Z GFS looks significantly less good than the 12Z.  Unfortunately, the block is further east therefore we don't have as much cold air here in the PNW.  

Hopefully it gets better.   

Looks nice and chilly until hour 240, peaking around hour 144 on the EPS.  

Day 8 HUGE block. Too broad. Subject to change? YES

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021312/192/500h_anom.na.png

Nothing can be perfect in this world of model riding LOL 

5 or 6 days out. What’s the fun in that.

The GEM wasn't that bad.  I mean it wasn't great, but it does still show some promise.  

ICON was cold to make up for it. 510 thickness south of Seattle

The GEM does show about 2 inches over much of Vancouver Island from the Wednesday system.  

00z GEM is not good at all. Period. Hmmm. Weird.

Trough looks titled a little too far north allowing the ridge to dig well into Washington.  Southeast ridge is weaker as well... temps do get colder later in the run around hour 150 or so.  

Weird I only use metro star for gfs that starts at 9 or 10. You using a different site.

Try Tropical Tidbits.  I like that site, except for the Euro.  The euro doesn't have many features on Tidbits.  

Not expecting anything, the cold/dry air typically scours out quickly around the island in these situations. Parts of the lower mainland should do much better with more favourable cold air damming.

Same.  The storm comes at the warmest part of the day, therefore, the chances of snow are greatly diminished compared to if it came let's say tomorrow morning at 6 AM.   

Hi guys.  Just checking in to see if everything has slid to the East again?

 

Asking for a friend.

No not yet... but not to say it won't.  It's just been that sort of winter.  

Made it down to 33F here as well. However, the DP hit a season low of 12F, if only tomorrow's low were coming in at a better overrunning angle we'd be primed for some snow. The DP is still sitting at 19F.

Do you think you'll get any snow where you are from tomorrow's system?

In spite of the cold weather we still haven't had any sub-freezing temperatures since Dec 25th. Tonight could come close now that the winds have died down.

Yeah it went down to around 33 at my house.  Outflow winds were just too strong.  What was your low? 

The 850 temperature anomalies on the GEFS seem a little bit less extreme than on the 06Z.  Something to keep an eye out for for sure. 

The 12Z GFS wasn't too terrible.  Everything was slightly east, but we'll have to look at the next few runs to see if this was an outlier or, god forbid, a new trend.  Far in the clown range, seems like the cold is coming back.  

Onto the GEM.  Here's hoping it's a gem!!   

Definitely not looking as good as the 06z.

Agreed.  Much less cold air to work with, it would seem.  

Cold air is definitely further south at hour 150.  

According to weather records, it was rather warm and dry in March 18-20, 2013 (that was here).  However, 2012 recorded traces of snow on the 19, 20th and 21st.  Perhaps 2012 then?  

On another note, we got down to a low of 34 here.  Outflow was whipping and we are relatively unsheltered, hence the high reading.  

At hour 102 on the 00z GFS, lower heights are further west than on the 18Z.  Good news.  So far so good  .  How do you add an image into the text?  

Snow will fall before 12z wed? That is before 9 am wed?

Snow will begin slightly before 3 AM on Wednesday in higher areas of the county.  Surface temperatures are looking to be in the mid to upper 30s with 850s around -3C.  Snow levels do look to be lowering as cooler air floods behind the system and a few flurries continue to fall.  

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=nwus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018021200&fh=54

00Z NAM looks a tad warmer, dryer than the 18Z.  Not too bad overall: looks like pretty widespread area of snow over the Vancouver area through north of Seattle until around 12Z Wednesday.   

Temperatures are looking very marginal, so will see how widespread this event is.  Hoping for lots but expecting little.  

Nothing is set in stone, but everything looks awesome.  As for what Phil said about a dramatic model shift, let's hope he's as wrong as he was about his January megablast predictions 

A significant snowstorm at hour 276 for pretty much everywhere north of Portland.  Incredible!!