weatherfan2012

A good winter usually lags behind low sunspot activity by a few years. I think we are due for a good one in the next 1 to 3 years.

agreed

Interisting Artical posted from Robert Filex  https://www.iceagenow.info/all-as-in-all-climate-change-is-due-to-natural-cycles-says-professor-video/

Terrible news to here.We also had 4 tornados this past feburary which is weird as well.And in the morning

4-8 years is really the max for these types of cycles, imo. Long-term, I'm probably nearer 5.5 years on this overall type of pattern that started in summer of 2014. It's sad but seeing drought risks return to the south and west will be a good indicator of this longer term cycle passing. (At least the portions driven by the equatorial tropics).

The problem we face here is entering or fading back into a type of pattern that persisted from 2008-2012 where the ridges don't migrate. Lots of things to look at going forward.

what ever the case maybe it certainly was one of the suckest nation wide winters That I can remember in a long time.As you said these pattern comes in cycles it will be interesting to see where it gos a few years down the road.One thing for sure if this current pattern continues well into summer.This could end up being a nasty one heat and perhaps storm wise.

Thanks..

 

it really about as bad as a winter as you can get if your a cold snow fan just awfull pattern on that front this winter.

Cutters. It can't get worse..

I suspect the warm oceans and the bad qbo Enso combinations is what at play and not really human climate change factors,low solar is good but if other factors are in bad very bad phases then it is very possable for the good to be offset by the bad forces at play.

No snow for the Mid-Atlantic. I am a man of constant sorrow.

this is certainly one wrack winter this year hopefuly we see some changes in this pattern over the next few years some keep claiming this is the new norm I can not buy that climate has always been changeing this winter could easily just be one of those rare exstreams in the natural varibity.

After seeing the warm stratuspheric plum. I feel better. A lot of warm air is gone. That still gives us a few weeks...

I still wouldn't be shocked if we see something crazy in March this year if there any winter where something crazy happens in March it would be this one.

Wind is blasting through here again as I’m getting ready to leave for school. I literally saw a “cloud” of pine cones fly off a group of evergreens and travel at least 125ft, all while gaining altitude. Lol.

yeah this winter is really getting Comerica lol

Starting to get interested in the first 7-10 days of February. Don’t wanna jinx it, but there’s potential.

In the meantime, tomorrow looks like a warm rain washout. Solid 1”+ of rain possible within 12-18hrs.

I'm afrade we got jinx in fact we were talking severe thunderstorms tornados for parts of the state this morning

It could very well be starting this year...if the climate models are right, there may be an expansive basin wide moderate La Nina forming this summer/fall...will a new decade be the beginning of a decade of cooling???  I think many gov'ts around the world know whats coming.

 

 

well there is little question in my mind Tom that this very warm nation wide winter will be balanced out sooner or later mother nature has away of balancing things out eventually.

Definitely not a major stratwarm. More like a transient wave-1 response that briefly knocks the PV down to normal strength, before it rebounds back to near record strength.

Just an ugly situation up there this winter.

well if there is any good news it's that things can only go up next winter can not get much worse then this winter so odds on that alone would seem to faver a better out come unless the Earth is really in some insane state that has no hope of changing I got to suspect 2020-2021 sees a completey different pattern.

I Hope Larry Cosgrove is abserlutly wrong about the summer he going with 2012 and 2016 2012 summer was really awful heat wise after a noneshow winter that would be the ultimate slap in the face.

A lot of times my weather here in the south mimics the EC weather. You all walked out of the best decade of winters the east coast has ever experienced.

A lot like here, after a decade of the winters that you all had, normal temps and below average snow takes a bit of getting used to. My era of that was really 2009-2015 minus 2012-13.

it gos in cycles some says we are due for another big one but one can also argure just as easily that we were due for an all out shitter .The 1950s were a pretty cruddy periold as were the late 1980s early 90s.Of course the blame seems to come back to climate change but the truth climate is always changeing and will continue as it always has.

Most boring winter since at least 2011/12. Might even be worse so far. Kudos to the OFA?

Holding out for Feb/Mar. These snoozefest winters sometimes get dynamic during the spring transition. Not always in a good way, but often in some way or another.

Until then, at least I can focus on school with no distractions.

If not we can then hope next winter follows in the likes of 95-96 2002-2003 2009-2010 all blockbuster winters that followed exstream snoozefest winters.

A rare 7.7 earthquake struck between Jamaica and Cuba on Jan. 28th. The quake was felt in southern Florida and buildings in Miami swayed terrifying residents.

A 7.6 hit Eastern Turkey last week with an enormous amount of damage to buildings. Many people were trapped in the rubble and numerous deaths reported.

The GSM expectation of increased quakes seems to be in play as the area near Cuba has been shaking and there has been and marked increase in Volcanic activity.

It will be interesting if we see a temperture drop in global temperatures in the next few years once we get past the ocean warming releases.

I would like to introduce a precip type that most of us have observed, but has not been categorized. I call it "sain." It is hard to see unless you are driving. When sain hits the windshield it splats like a slushy rain or snowflake. It exist in a narrow transition zone, but can last for hours.

 

The Friday night early Saturday event looks like a rain/sain mix. If the Hatteras Low jogs NW,  wetsnow may mix in with higher precip rates. How pathetic is that?

 

Long range still has cold air lurking North of the metro. Individual wave amplification and confluence will eb and flow. We are still entering, "primetime."

Pathetic is the name for this winter the 2019-2020 pathetic winter.the Good thing could be some of the winters that have followed complete suckage ended up being blockbusters so watch 2020-2021 if we arnt breaking records with snow the opposite exstream of this winter lol.

Surprised to see DC has had hardly any cold/snow this winter. Then again you guys are at 39°N, same latitude as Sacramento (although being on the east coast 100% helps).

Now on the other side of the Pacific at our latitude, you have northern Japan and Sakhalin. It isn’t even a contest. WA, OR, and northern CA are really quite warm considering how far north they are.

Not as rare as you may think there has been quite a few winter's in past records where Dc came up very low in snow fall tottels.2011-2012 2001-2002 97-98 72-73 49-50 are just a few examples.It doesn't happen ofton but we do get these type of extream low winter case's every so ofton.Of course 2002-2003 95-96 2009-2010 is our oppersite extream verson of this winter lol.

Pretty Comerica we had some decent cold this week yet tommore night into saterday we are watching another rain event the story of 2019-2020 winter so far.I still wouldn't be surprised if our biggest snow storm this winter happens in febuary or March the pattern projected in febuary is not dislike 2006 and 83 cases where temperatures pattern wise we're not to cold but the pattern was active which brought us a big storm it remains to be seen if that happens but can envision something that pops up that is decent in that time periold.

If it ever snows here again, lol.

So far, this is my worst winter since the 2012/13 disaster. Just under 3” locally..hoping to make up some ground in Feb/Mar.

that 2011-2012 to 2012-2013 periold really sucked for sure in our locations 2001-2002 was pretty stinky to.and the winter before that we had to suffer watching Boston New York and New England get slammed repeated times which was the 2000-2001 gold glove miller B winter.

Febuary looks active and we have gotten some very good storms from none super cold patterns.and with Only an inch of snow so far I feel something is going to happen snow wise at some point.give me an active pattern with regular cold around over a super cold pattern where it's suppressed city.

Low was 18.3F today. Hilarious that’s the coldest we’ve seen all winter, but alas..

Late winter climax is probably in order. Typical.

I would not be surprised if we had are biggest snow storm this winter in March this year

Just getting over depression. Got about 20 minutes of light snow. Visibility dropped to one mile. To call it a dusting would be a stretch. Had a 30 minute break then heavy sleet for about 10 minutes, then freezing rain. About a tenth of an inch of ice accretion. At about 10 pm the warm air came in. When ice starts to melt it really glistens. It was washed away overnight.

My forecast was a bust.

the blame for this warm and lack of snow of course will be put on man made climate change but in truth its factors like a weak but still west qbo in a over all nino like regem a positive iod causing bad mjo phases.hopefully next winter we get a moderate nino because the qbo will be well into the East phase which is a good phase to get blocking negative Nao.

Just getting over depression. Got about 20 minutes of light snow. Visibility dropped to one mile. To call it a dusting would be a stretch. Had a 30 minute break then heavy sleet for about 10 minutes, then freezing rain. About a tenth of an inch of ice accretion. At about 10 pm the warm air came in. When ice starts to melt it really glistens. It was washed away overnight.

My forecast was a bust.

it was a bad storm track really and lack of blocking it should have been easy to see how this would be a meh event.I think we want to keep hope but in this winter it seems hope is hard to come by so far.but we still got February and March and the last few years March has been producing better then December and January combind