weatherfan2012

Yeah this summer is going to suck balls nothing really stopping.It about as classic by the book case as it gets for a hot summer nation wide.

The only Problem here is the lack of warming from La ninas when in truth La Ninas tend to fit with a back ground warm system longer term.Sort term It is a leveling off but it only supports longer term warming by promoting the continued build up of warm western Pacific Ocean temperatures which are then release in the strong super El ninos.So El nino sort term is indeed a warm factor but long term it is anything but a warm indicator in fact in cold cycles the system was dominated mostly by El ninos and or neutral systems reather then La ninas in the warm cycles the system trended to be dominted more by La ninas then El ninos.I suspect as Phil said when you have a long term El nino driven system with not that many La ninas or year after year of La ninas you lose the build up effect of the western Pacific warmth that is so common in the 2 to 3 year La nina systems as the heat is release into space reather then builds up.So any one that is rooting for a end to the global warming cycle a Dominate La nina system is not what you are looking for or would want to see.Your want to see a system that is less dominated by year after year of La nina phases or cycles.One of the reasons I personalty root for Neutral and El nino type dominated systems and not La ninas lol.The crap that La nina summers can bring here is another reason I don't tend to root much for them.

this was a strange El nino Alot of research I think will be look at it but my bet is the pacific had a play with a over all La nina background state which may have interruped the normal El nino tendaceys.

What interesting is sort term El nino has a warming effect long term El nino system has a cooling tendency.Same with La nina sort term it has a leveling off cooling effect but long term in a La nina system it tends to go along with warming cycles climate as oppose to cooling cycles.

This winter has been borning not only on the lack of snow but the lack of wind events which is unusal for La ninas as it one thing we do well in with La ninas are big wind events.

Then March we will likey have our biggest snow event of the winter I can very much see that happening as well to add to the Joke of winter 2022-2023.I mean lets be honest this winter is about as comerica as it can get.

As bad as it is at least the northeast is suffering through it as well and it not just our suffering,

This would be the classic winter where we get our biggest storm in March it just has that feel to it.

The one good thing is next winter can not get any worse as this is about as worse rock bottom as you can get.so we can only go up after this debacle over the next few years.

Agreed I think the truth is no matter how many ids one has mother nature will still kick you in the but at times and this winter has kicked many.Also it human nature to not like to be wrong and alot of times we can be stubborn in admitting that we were wrong lol.I also think there is still many things in the climate system that we don't really know and it those unknowns alot of times that screws up forecasted ideas.which will then leave us saying yep back to the drawing board again ☺.I think with LC he been going by models which has clearly been rushing things with the enso and he adminted the delays of the models has frustrated him.I think your idea Phil is what makes the most sense a slower trainstion.

Larry Cosgrove has been ending La nina since the summer those does admints it been slower.

Larry Cosgrove is doing that still going with El nino in the summer.He was ending La nina this winter those like Larry but he clearly been off this winter after he had one of the best forecasting calls in the summer and hurricane season.

As good as a promet Larry Cosgrove is he really got burned by his consistent idea of La nina going away and El nino starting.I still wonder what he saw back in the summer and fall that made him go in that drection .He is still going with the El nino coming on this summer.

Larry Cosgrove wrote this on his Weather America newsletter last night

The truth promets need to call for a warmer less snower winter then we will get hammered as there calls for cold snowy winters have not been to good.