weatherfan2012

Wind is starting to roar here ahead of the QLCS. Gusts approaching 40mph.

 Not a great night for Trick or treating this year that for sure.with the high winds it can be dangerous for the kids going out in the dark with the costums on with falling limps and or branchs  and things flying around.

There was a lot of great evidence posted and published pre-1014 before the bigger propaganda pushes took over. Those articles line up well with stuff I have found as well.

The CP Niños, volcanism (last check 200% of normal), low solar, all point to one thing, the end of a warm "epoch" or era. The fact that sometimes these can drop us 2°c in a matter of 3 years should have every person at attention.

Yet, like the grasshopper (the Left) in the story of preparing for winter, I think their plan is to take from the ants instead of doing the right things when disaster comes. If we go colder and faster than the descent from 1957-1961 period (which all evidence says we will, the next 3 years are going to be devastating in many places.

Significant changes on tap by 2021

Robert Filex posted this just now on his blog site https://www.iceagenow.info/temperatures-now-lower-than-during-most-of-the-last-630-million-years/#more-29729 and also these very recently https://www.iceagenow.info/why-will-this-solar-minimum-be-different/ and plus this one https://www.iceagenow.info/the-handwriting-for-a-super-grand-solar-minimum-is-on-the-wall/ interesting to say the least.But Robert is always very interesting and a good read to follow.

Nooooooo.

October snow is a friggin’ curse here. Every winter that has it ends up being a dud, most recently 2011/12.

2011-2012 completely sucked here for sure.

Rained today for the first time in ages. Quick downpour lasted like 3mins.

Mid-90s return next week. Lol.

Mid 90s in october is absurd bad enough we deal with it june- August when its soppose to be hot.But now we deal with it in September and October.

Stop bragging, dîckwad.

I’m gonna have a psychotic break if this verifies.

upper 90s in october no thanks just getting to ridiculous levels now.

Dropped to 47*F Friday morning. Didn’t expect that.

The 90*F heat returns this week. Looks like this pattern will persist into Mid-October again, similar to last year. Hopefully we flip quickly in a similar fashion.

90s and 80s in late September october suck big time way to hot it's like groundhogs day the last few years of summer presisting well into the fall it absurd.

It’s all relative..mid-80’s at the end of September are pretty horrific IMO.

And this torch has a looong way to run..probably won’t flip around until the 3rd week of October. Feels like 2018.

mid 80s in mid late september mostly sucks when we are ready for cooler temperatures when summer is stupidity hanging around.I blame it on all that hot air coming out of Dc by the way

Really getting dry here. I know we’re not technically in a drought but prolonged dry stretches like this are problematic while the trees are foliated.

Pattern looks warm for the foreseeable future.

Anthony says we better enjoy this warmth because he sees some legit cold potential this winter interesting wording from him for sure.

I would guess more extreme atmospheric blocking is one of the more immediate effects and global cooling will be more of a lag.  We are probably still seeing a lag effect from the recent grand maximum.

one could make an argurement that perhaps that one reason why we haven't seen the cooling really take off yet we never really seen to many cases where we go from one of the highest solar maxumums cycles to now going into a very low ones.so how this all plays out is still very much an open question.

Lower right-hand corner says what I've said. It's a basic crapshoot for next month. Hard to measure. I'm at low confidence and 50/50 on anything for the next 60 days.

If I had to throw something at the wall today, I'd say 4 more weeks of late summer/early fall weather through October. Down here, 2007 is probably a good year to use. I think we had relentless heat through September then a brief knockdown to comfortable mid 70s for a week, then stair stepped back up to a peak of 83, which is warm for October standards.

FWIW:The winter that followed was anything but good here. Idk about anywhere north of here, but if that one makes the analog set, along with 2017, 2016 or 2012, I'm done legitimately with cold chances until late winter or early spring.

Also of note, sea ice has taken a beating again since my last writing on it. Brings it to 2nd or 3rd lowest behind 2012 and 2016, if I recall.

No attempts to sound negative here, but I'm not enjoying the last 3 weeks of info I'm looking at for cold weather. As in years past, October can "flip the script" in terms of what we see. Hence not pulling the trigger on a late autumn and/or winter forecast in September.

Being objective. I hate what I'm looking at as of today.

I strongly beleave a big switch is coming a few years down the road as the solar minimum continues to deepens we are likey seeing the last of this warm period it gives more support that there is a leg effect and severe winters from this low solar may still be a few years away.I think many for get we never seen a case where we go from one of the strongest solar maximum cycles to now a very deep low cycle how the impending climate effects from this plays out remains to be seen.But it is in my opinion isnt going to be forecasted well and suspect the models are going to get even worse with accuracy over the next few years.bottom line enjoy the calm over all warmth because it will likey go the other way at some point in the next few years.

No.

agreed many things don't support a La nina right now.

Robert Filex posted this today https://www.iceagenow.info/nasa-next-solar-cycle-will-be-weakest-in-200-years/

Allen in 1980 was 190mph at landfall..that’s the record to beat, I think?

the 1980s was famous for some huge gulf of Mexico texas hurricanes quite a few of them doing that period.

Labor Day hurricane of 1935 will be tough to beat, but as of now winds appear similar.

Scary thing about the Labor Day hurricane is that it was much smaller and had a lower minimum central pressure, so that core must have been immensely powerful. I actually believe it was stronger than pegged in reanalysis..likely over 200mph sustained.

yeah that the one John hope use to talk about alot on hurricanes shows back in the good old days of the weather channel that guy is truely missed one hect of an hurricane forecaster experts he was.

OMG..the new advisory has Dorian with 185mph sustained winds, and gusts to 220mph!

no words mother nature no matter be it good bad and really ugly at times never fails to blow one mind at times!

Ha, we’ll see. It’s early..the pattern is such that it could easily wander about, miss the fetch, and plow into the outer banks/delmarva. Not much support on guidance right now but just few tiny tweaks would turn this into a nightmare for a lot of people that aren’t expecting anything right now.

exackly these sort of patterns are the most challenging to pin down which is why no one can put there guards down because these things can throw a real cerve ball.alot of times its the small factors that ultimately become the big determination of the whole track.

Oh my.

 

after all the media hype you may end up proven right about the coaster skimmer idea if so fantastic call Phil when most everyone was calling this a Florida hit.

Already regret trying to cram in my last two math classes in this one semester. Good chance my posting will be relatively limited until the holidays this year.

“Vector bundles on Algebraic Curves” and “Topics in Topology: Index Theory on Manifolds”. Argh.

hang in there phil at least you are continuing your education to help you succeed on your om going career best wishs to you man.

Something pretty impressive hit smithburg in Carroll county around 6 this evening many reports of tree damage and roofs blown off and a report of a Building that was badly damaged,We got some strong gust those nothing to out of the ordanary when it came through here those marly neck had trees and power lines down reportly then the sky open up for 15 mins a crap load of lighting lightning is really impressive with these storms tonight,

Lot of strobe lighting with these storms tonight sure making a show if not anything else.

Good line of storms coming in from the west heat wave is about to be broken.

Last day with 90+ temps/100+ heat indices in this warm stretch before a much needed reprieve. I think we could string at least 5 days of sub-90*F heat indices together this weekend into next week, perhaps even 7 days? Would be totally awesome if we could steal a full week in late August.

Of course, it’s not permanent..it never is at this time of year. But it would be nice to dry things out and ventilate the biomass with some NW flow.

Dt has declared summer over after today

Good cell on the door step missed the last cluster just south and east but this one looks to be headed here.looking forward to the upper 70s to near 80 this weekend need a break from this junk for a bit.of course by the time it gets here it weakends into just an ordanary moderately heavy rain shower yesterday for your back yard phil that was the ultiment screwage if ever there was one.