weatherfan2012

This summer weather can pack up it bags and leave at any moment just doesn't belong in october lol.

Yeah yet some like Dave keep harping on the huge snow gains up north upcoming I would love for them to be right.but it's hard to dismissed as you said phil the warm trend over the last 18 months or so.it eather going to be a all out warm winter or one heck of a pattern snap which is also possable as well.as sooner or later the pattern of warmth will break down.I can foresee a big battle in a few years with a possable deep solar minimum upcoming over the next few cycles would argue for some big time cold winters over the next few decades or more at least.it will be interesting none the less how patterns turn out with cycles 25 and 26.

Made it down to 37.2F this morning. Noticing fewer mosquitos and crickets around today as a result.

Hard to believe it was 95 degrees a little over 3 weeks ago. As usual, summer's back was broken by a single early autumn storm system.

it actually felt good nice change from that torrid heat humidity we had.

For sure....that would be really bad news for all of us.

 

BTW Leo's latest gem is he thinks people who deny global warming should not be allowed to hold public office.  Scary to think if these people could actually have their way!

and this is exactly why Climate and weather has no businesses in the politics.weather and climate should have never became such a political aginda.

Starting to get a better idea now, but I personally will know a lot more in about 4 weeks. I believe this winter should easily finish colder than last winter, though considering last winter was the warmest all-time in many places, that won't be a very difficult task to accomplish.

I'm looking most closely at 2013/14, 2010/11, 2008/09, 1995/96, 1985-86, 1978/79, 1967-68, and 1966/67 as potential seasonal analogs. Obviously, there are some notable differences amongst these years, both in terms of solar forcing/strat dynamics, and tropical forcing/ENSO/equator-pole exchanges of mass/momentum/AAM//etc. So, the details of how this season's pattern evolves w/ time isn't exactly clear, in my opinion..

If I had to guess as to the nature of this winter, I'd go with an "obnoxiously variable" pattern, defined by a persistent battle between heavy, repetitive shots of Arctic air centered over the Plains/Midwest (vodka cold, as some folks call it) and the climatological SW Atlantic high (SE ridge), which will try to keep the coldest airmasses centered a few hundred miles to our west.

The dominant storm track often runs, or "cuts" to our west in years like this (between the Appalachian Mountains and the Great Lakes, generally speaking) before secondary surface lows redevelop, or "jump" to the coast or just offshore, typically along the NYC/Boston corridor. This often leads to frequent temperature extremes on a weekly/subweekly timescale in the Middle Atlantic region.

For example, with a typical "cutter" (a name we give westward running systems), we'll experience relatively mild S/SW flow and/or moderate rain as we enter the warm sector of the storm, followed by a sharp rush of polar air along/behind cold front, which will either arrive "respectfully" (the classic dry W/NW wind gusts, usually ~40-50mph, or "obnoxiously" (line of low-topped convection with howling winds developing along and/or behind the line, often at/above 60mph, typical of sharp airmass/pressure gradients). The latter scenario has been somewhat less frequent in recent years, but would happen very frequently in the pre-2010 years, so we're probably going to start experiencing those frontal passages sometime soon.

So, to summarize, it's not uncommon to experience few days in the upper 50s/low 60s ahead of a system with mild rain, followed by a few days in the upper teens/low 20s behind the cold front, often with heavy winds out of the W/NW and snow squalls. In fact, if anything, it's quite typical in the long run.

Regarding snowfall, years like this are often very dynamic locally, however, inland locations are heavily favored in the snowfall department w/ the frequent "Miller B" storm track...basically anywhere from the Appalachians, into a corridor from Winchester, VA, to Hagerstown, MD, to State College, PA, to the northern NYC suburbs, into most of New England will usually jackpot on snowfall. Meanwhile, the I95 corridor will usually experience a snow-to-ice-to-rain (or just snow-to-ice) progression, under the influence of CAD (cold air damming, which is essentially the "trapping" of low level cold air east of the mountains, leading to a temperature inversion as temperatures aloft warm easily relative to those at the surface). These events typically start with approximately 1-4" of snowfall, followed by a transition to sleet/freezing rain as temperatures aloft warm above freezing. About half of the time, there will be an eventual flip to rain, or the event will finish in the firm of freezing rain..SE of I95, the flip to rain is easier/more common, while areas to the N/W of I/95 and/or the "Fall Line" will often have a hard time flipping to rain..the metro areas are usually a toss-up.

Occasionally, clippers will dive down out of Canada, dropping a general 1-3" of powder across the area. Sometimes, secondary systems will develop along the frontal boundary of a "cutter" (these fronts often stall out in the deep S/SE US, and will ride NE into the region, dropping 2-6" of snow or a wintry mix, often on a narrow SW/NE swath).

Or sometimes, on a relatively infrequent basis, we score a true nor'easter that tracks to our south, which can easily dump

12"+ throughout the region. This usually requires strong high latitude blocking (NAO/EPO et al) or a southward displaced, perfectly oriented Hudson Bay vortex (as we observed in both 2013/14 and 1995/96, for example).

So, that's a generally summary of where I'm putting my expectations this winter. Variable temperatures with frequent mild spikes, recurring Arctic blasts of a transient nature, and a largely unfavorable storm track for all-snow events. Nothing close to confident about this yet, however.

and if indeed we are heading into a deep solar minimum doing the next couple cycles we better start getting use to nation wild cold to possibly severe winters.cycles 25 and 26 are going to be very interesting to follow to see how low the cycles go and the climate impacts.

Strongest trade wind burst of the year, and SSTAs are doing exactly the opposite of what they should be doing.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

What's to blame here? Thermal instability waves? Those two oceanic rossby waves? I have no clue.

this is certainly a odd set up we are seeing.

This July August weather in September can end at any moment what is the cause of this sift july-September summer October-december fall January-April winter or is this just part of the many cycles of climate Earth has always been going through.I know Robert Filex is a big it's a cycle beleaver which I agree with him,

Our house was just struck by lightning..scared the crap outta me!

slimutarliy lighting/thunder sounds like the house about to explode when you get that type of lighting and thunder had that a few times in Augest with very close lighting strikes near the house

The thunderstorms are training north to South they stayed to our west here but sounds like you got hammered there.

Have to wonder if September has permanently morphed into a summer month. This is the 4th consecutive September to blowtorch into oblivion.

Feels like f**king July outside, currently 94/72, H/I 101. Screw this useless piece of crap month.

agree this is just terrible hot for September

Very poor performance by the models with hermine really have to give Larry Cosgrove credit and due he took a lot of heat by not being sold on the hype and cautioned that the ecmwf was off from the systems entire life span.certainly not one of the ecmwf finest moments with hermine wise.

That was an big time tornado signature on the radar in eastern north Carolina from one of the bands of hermine hope people took cover there.

After a ten year fight my beautiful wife finally lost the battle. She passed on September 1. She was only 44. She was everything to me.

this is so sad to here she truely left our world to soon.my deepest thoughts and condolences go out to you doing this difficult time and loss.she will always be with you from in sprit from the heart as now your guideing Angel.as sad and hard as it is.this is a great day for her as she gets to see God and Jesus and forever live with no more pain and suffering.may you always reflect you're great and loving memory's of her.

If the ecmwf is right snj del is going to get destroyed with coaster flooding wind what a night mare solution for them if that pans out this way.

Yeah looks like we're gonna dustbowl it up for September.

with or without out this weekend tropical system we all knew September was going to suck with heat and dry eather way everything from pattern and analogs has stated a hot september this year.I'm going to just enjoy the relative coolness of the temperature this weekend while I can as it may be a long wrait until the next cool down.

Watch us all get hammered in October by a east coast hurricane lol.

Haha, ECMWF gets DC back into the 100s. F**k me bloody.

September is no longer a fall month here. December has morphed into a fall month, and March/April have morphed into a continuation of January/February. I'm so moving outta here when I graduate.

that has seem to have been the over all pattern the last few years 2014-2015 at least.It makes you wonder what weather patterns will be like once we get deeper into this solar minimum as we get to the end of cycle 24 and cycle 25 in a few years down the road.more importantly the real million dollar question is exactly how cycles 25 and 26 behave.

Some nice thunderstorms training in Baltimore Imagain it pretty loud there at the moment

Back home today..93/72, H/I 100 as of 3pm, and a similar 91/70, H/I 96 @ DCA. In other words, nothing's changed since I left town. Expecting the 90+ temperatures to continue into mid/late September once again.

a sort rest for a few days but data is strongly hinting at the rige rebuilding next week so after 3 4 day break the hot weather comes right back.

Robert Filex posted this Article on his blog site as well iceagenow that is.

Yeah plus tommore the front is likey to be draped across our location so depending where the boundary sets up there could be more clouds and storms chances keeping temperatures in the low 90s instead of the upper 90s to near 100.

Another round of storms today severe thunderstorm watch until 11.ever since you went on vacation phil the thunderstorms keep coming lol.

Pissed that I'm missing this. Might as hell here on Saint Simons Island, GA.

furgers that you go on vacation that when the storms explode at home.

Yep another batch of storms coming up from the south

Pasadena location.just got hit pretty good here not to long ago.another cluster of strong storms coming up from the south so round two may be on the way these warm fronts tend to get active doing the summer months