weatherfan2012

Looks like a great stretch of real spring weather for this weekend into much of next week enjoy this nice spring weather while we can before the super 3 letter hot bath word takes over for the summer months hazy hot and humied torture.

Had strong to severe thunderstorms in parts of the region as the Main front lines were passing with hail reports strong winds and lots of lighting and thunder reportly shaking the houses.impressive event to say the least.

Yeah, really starting to look like we've entered warm background regimen that should continue into the warm season, and will continue probably for another year or two.

agreed what happens after 2017 the late 20teens and 2020s depends largely on what happens with the upcoming solar minimum.also depends how severe or deep cycles 25 and 26 end up being which will determined how strong of a cooling the next 50 years ends up being.a couple of cycles that end up as no shows would be quite troublesome.so it will be interesting to see how this does play out.I still beleave the periold after 2017 is going to be a test for both sides idea wise.we likey should enjoy the over all warm background singal as it could crash fast and hard sooner or later.

Incredible how consistently warm it has been the last few months.

Alot like a 82-83 winter where it was a one wonder in a record warm and boring winter over all

Robert Filex from iceagenow  has an interesting Artical on the Solar  http://iceagenow.info/sun-activity-well-normal/Robert stated he thinks it's going to be important to see how far and low the Declining Magnetic field Strength ends up being doing the next few solar cycles as its a key on our ice age cycles.

Agreed you need a lot to go right for big snow acculations in late March outside of the mountains tops so it's best to take the exstream models out puts with caution here.

Enjoy the next 10-15 days while you can, because we're heading right back into the freezer later this month into April. Record breaking SSW/FW underway..going to be a chaotic seasonal transition this year.

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the craptistic cold and rain pattern perhaps higher elevaration snow event but for the most part cold in late March early April is more annoying then anything else.those in July and August we will be wishing for the cool weather as we suffer through the hot hazy humied dog days of summer then.

Very much the one wonder winter where it all came in a period from mid to late january.was it for this storm this winter would have truely sucked so thanks for this storm.

While it'd be nice to see the cycle end soon for shorter term results in the high latitude circulations, a longer cycle would be more typical entering a grand minima, and would make predictions much easier.this was posted today about the current solar cycle 24 some still reading the comments are not convinced that solar plays into cooling and warming cycles even those the evendence says strongly other wise.[/quotehttp://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/02/11/solar-cycle-24-activity-continues-to-be-lowest-in-nearly-200-years/

I clearly remember you saying last spring that this winter would be a clear El nino.phil said nothing about la nina in his predtions.

Referencing solar forcing alone isn't helpful. You also need to reference ENSO/AAM tendencies and the QBO, which are additional cornerstones to the seasonal relationship.

exactly there are a lot of other factors involved that is just as important it a combination of things that controls our patterns.

The changes are well underway, I agree. Basically, there are a number of very low-frequency, semi-harmonic/resonant behaviors in the global circulatory network. In layman's terms, the manner in which the tropics, mid-latitudes, and polar regions interact changes over extended periods of time.

These changes are initiated via external forcings, whether it be orbital cycles (over tens or hundreds of thousands of years), or relatively shorter range variances in solar forcing(s) and the planetary magnetic field(s). However, these climactic changes also operate on an internally-governed resonance, or inertial period, which voids any appearance of a linear relationship in the relatively shorter ranges (particularly in the multidecadal to multicentennial timebands).

That said, generally speaking, these resonances are short enough that very long-term responses are not masked. There's a reason the stadial/interstadial (ice age/interglacial) cycles are so consistent and predictable.

So, what I'm looking at is relatively low frequency, as in multidecadal. The upcoming climate shift(s) will have different effects in different regions, but I suspect the entirety of the North American domain will trend cool/wet.

very interesting I know Robert Filx has stated many times that the climate of Chicago would trend south into Georgia doing ice age cycles.and tend to be cold/wet to most of north America.

If anything as we start to desend into a very deep solar min over the next few years nation wild severe winters would start to be strongly favered.a topic that likey will be getting very interesting in a few years time.

Agreed it will be interesting to see which way we go I think the bigger question is how fast does la nina come on doing the summer fall.the slower a la nina forms would be far better then one that comes on fast and strong considering the -qbo as you stated phil those an active summer severe weather wise is still a plus nothing worse then a hot and dry summer weeks on end with little thunderstorms action.

What a flip in the Euro Weeklies to a much colder/stormier central/eastern CONUS...primarily in the central states. NW NAMER ridge pops by the 14th of Feb and never lets go. During this time frame the STJ is on fire coming out of the southwest. Feb could turn out to be one hellova month, esp with the PV falling apart.

would fit with phils idea of the pattern having major potential again from mid febuary through early March.after the pattern reload the first 4 to 7 days of the month.

If a strong La Nina did come on next year watch out for a big tornado severe weather spring season in much of the mid west Ohio vally in 2017 la ninas are loaded with large severe weather outbreaks in the spring superoutbreak 74 the 2011 outbreak the 99 tornado outbreak all were La nina spring.plus hurricane season would become a lot more active in the alantic.what happens 2017-2018 and after is largely determines what happens with the solar as we maybe desending into a major solar min then.

We'll be fine, global warming or not. We can score in a warmer than average midwinter antecedent airmass. Over 80% of our problems involve storm track/jet dynamics.

Heck, temperatures were in the low 20s for the majority of this storm. Even a warming of two degrees centigrade wouldn't have made a difference.

Miller B's for an example tend to be problemantic for us as a lot of times the phasing tends to happen to late for us but tend to hit further north and east great like new England winter of 2000-2001 was a miller B dominated type winter looking back at March 2001 we should have known that event would screw us as it was a classic miller B phase event which 90 percent of the time doesn't work in our reagion.

Anne Arundel county pasadena maryland.for a while this morning we got into the lull zone where the banding set up just north and west.interesting to note to we are getting a combination of the Atlantic easterly moster and the western bands combineding now on 95.

The band's have entered back in my location after being in the dry slote for a few hours now as the low begins to start it dift ene the back part is pulling the band's back through.

Crazy dbz radar returns right now for you guys.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LWX/N0Q/LWX.N0Q.20160123.0707.gif

amazing event all around.

Phil or whoever lives locally. Has a blizzard like this ever taken place during a strong/super el Niño winter?

That seacond storm in febuary 2010 3rd one of that winter was actually a miller B normally miller B screw in our reagion as they form to late but our big hits from pa to maine like last year and most of 2010-2011 cases.but that one was a rare cases miller B hit where it formed or did it phased on top of us.

Thundersnow!! Ripping..now over one foot and still accumulating at 3"/hr!

congratulations on the thundersnow phil ☺

Phil or whoever lives locally. Has a blizzard like this ever taken place during a strong/super el Niño winter?

yes back in febuary 2010 we had the back to back storms with that second one being a true wind producer.we also had a big storm December 2009 so 3 big ones that winter.

It getting to be that time when we start now casting from here on out going to be an wild 36 or so hours for sure.hope everyone enjoys the ride takes movies and pictures of this storm.