weatherfan2012

I'm not putting a lot of stock in traditional forecast methods and models on this. There will likely be surprises with this event.

I agree im not convinced we are headed for a super El nino I think moderate is a much better likey hood.

Tom...all I need is a big storm to break my snowfall record......PLEASE...provide your magic powers and throw one out. I hear next week we could be looking at something. Latest EURO buries the east coast from feet of snow next week.

It could go either way. March throws curve balls, so I'm not sure what the exact outcome will be after next Tuesday. 

 

It shall be interesting to watch the foreign vs. domestic models.

I agree geos caution must be use next week.the models last week showed monday storm being a major hit in the northeast and it ended being a moderate at best storm for va and md in other words models are having trouble dispicking this pattern.i would wrait until early next week to see how the pattern is lineing up with reality.

The south trend shocked me..now I'm expecting another foot of snow and 0.5" of ZR.

If I get one more subzero low this winter, I'm gonna scream 'till I'm blue in the face. I've had enough.

The south trend shocked me..now I'm expecting another foot of snow and 0.5" of ZR.

If I get one more subzero low this winter, I'm gonna scream 'till I'm blue in the face. I've had enough.

I can't beleave how fast the hole process of this storm has changed to just a day or so ago.just a slight ajustment of the pv was all it took amazeing.

I wonder what effect a cold AMO with a low solar cyle would have on the NAO would it tend to be negatve ad low solar cycles seem to faver or a positive nao.

1) First, Jeff Masters is an idiot, and we're not going to see a super-niño in 2015. There is no physical evidence for such a transition. I foresee an event reminiscent of 2006-07.

2) Second, multi-decadal trends in global temperatures are communicated through ENSO but are independent of it from year to year.

Here's my previous post:

See here, ENSO amplitude/El Niño frequency through the Holocene:http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/2438/msbh.jpg

Reason for the enhanced ENSO activity during the late-interglacial stages is the loss of Obliquity..thus an increasing equator-to-pole gradient and perturbed equatorial-convective scheme. Eventually you get a strengthening and shrinkage of the Hadley Cells.

Here's the insolation shifts that have occurred as consequence of obliquitu, and where we're headed:http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/72/fowp.jpg[/quote I agree with phil I dont by the super el nino talk.i can see how we can get a moderate el nino as phil said something like 2006-2007 or 2002-2003.the bigger key is how it sets up an west basen el nino has a far different result then a east basen event pattern wise.

I think there's a chance we'll lose high-frequency ENSO altogether. We're seeing signs of that now. What's going on with the global climate right now will be communicated through the ENSO. However, ENSO is technically the system's mechanism to communicate and repair (internal) positive disequilibrium induced by the relevant external forcings. This is why ENSO did not exist until ~7000 years ago, as we began to lose some of the orbital/axial parameters that initially forced us into the Holocene interglacial.

 

However, the system can only respond through the ENSO method at a specific resonance, which peaks in potential at the Boreal winter solstice. This is why the ENSO is most pronounced during December-January.

 

Eventually, the system will no longer be able to effectively use the ENSO method to hold the interglacial circulation together as our Obliquity (Aka: axial tilt) continues to cycle down.

 

We will eventually snap the rubber band and lose ENSO..followed by major shifts in the Hadley Cells and tropical convective regimes.

 

Looking at where we are, this could happen any decade now. In past interglacials, the "big switch" always flips at the precessional aphelion during downward cycling obliquity. There are no exceptions to this rule.

 

This is exactly where we are now. The upcoming grand minimum has the potential to finish the job.

Phil Robert Filex has message a few times in the past on iceagenow that past ice ages have behaved alot like El ninos tropical forceing wise would be interesting seeing your thoughts on this.

Kinda OT, but is anyone here besides me suffering from a case of spring fever? I've never had it this bad before.

For the first time since before Thanksgiving, it's warmed above 40F, the birds are chirping, the snowpack is melting, and everyone in town is wearing short sleeves. It smells like rain-water outside instead of chimney smoke..love it!

this has been a long cold winter for most of the nation so it was good to get some warmth.those it makes me wonder the winters starting around 2017 if you are right we maybe in for severe winters nation wide depending what the next few solar cycles do.

Heard from Phil?

yeah have it seen phil post In about 4 days or so hope everything is ok.Tony Pan from wbal owes Justin burke lunch as much of md west of the bay got a foot or more of snow from this storm with even higher amounts north and west of i95 impressive storm to say the least.the mixing lull was expected 95 east and south va md and pa so not a surpise on the mixing outcomed.the sort term models really did well with this storm.Part three is now bearing down part 1 the big thumb snows this morning part 2 the mixing and lull from 8 to early this afternoon and now the back side comma head ull part three.I95 and east  in MD/PA geting crushed over the next few hours.

                             would like to see any reports from any East coast posters that is being effected by this historic storm that is effecting the entire Eastern seaboard.

looks winter maybe going out with a bang wenesday night and thrusday if models are to be beleaved.

If I remember right an El Nino forming during the summer means a warmer than normal autumn in the East. I'm haven't followed what it going on with ENSO, so maybe someone else can chime in. I believe it leads to dryness in the northern tier of the country as you get into autumn, but the mid-Atlantic may swing wet in that type of setup. 

 

That's way off though. Right now I'm concentrating on figuring out what the March and April period will bring. CFS today has flipped almost totally mild now for March. 

Last coldest period February 25 - March 2nd, then you can see below where it goes from there. Looks like New England will be the last to get in on the spring thaw.

 

 

earlySpring.jpg

Agreed it way to soon to worry about next fall and winter.Alot of times it depends where the El nino sets up.If the El nino is a east to center base it tends to be warmer then normal.But if it sets up as a center to west basen event the winters tend to be cold and very snowey.I'm glad the pattern is breaking.Like Phil said this winter seem to take alot of engery out of alot of people.

none of the models have been handling the patterns to well as of late which is tpical of these split flow patterns.and right before pattern changes as well.

If you're interested in the outlook for late February and spring, read this detailed take on the upcoming predicted pattern change from the DVN office.

 

 Of significant note, this meteorologist accurately predicted the pattern for this winter back in the autumn. 

 

 

Looking at the EPO and WPO forecasts, they both flip eventually.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-7389-0-98767400-1391708829.jpg

 

With the PNA negative and the NAO positive, the change in the teleconnections above will likely help break this cold pattern towards the last 10 days of the month.

 

 

DVN continues with their prediction. 

 

    Geos how do you see the El nino that is likey to be forming late this summer and doing fall Phil has been stateing its likey it going to be an unusal forming El nino.Reather or not its a west to centel base one or a centel to east base is very much unclear at this point in time.next winter would likey see us past the solar max and likey the start of the deep fall I would suspect.You and Phil both did great on your forecasts this winter.Was it an easy one to pin down with the many regem changes and lack of singels any where this winter.So really had to look hard and deep to forecast this one.

What Niño are you referring to, exactly? We've been dead neutral for a few years.

The big transition beginning in the stratosphere right now will allow the MJO/tropical circulations to "unload" this summer, aided by the Solar maximum..forcing us into a weak or moderate El Niño by October or November 2014.

This graphic explains why the QBO is so important in regards to uplift/instability in the tropics, hence the MJO:http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/7809/z90g.jpg

yeah the pacific ssts have not been any where close to an el nino look this year as you said it been dead neuture the past 2 years.which had been a great enso call by you.

Yep, completely agreed. I would think it would tend to negate the "warming" over PDX with -11c to -12c.

Am I the only one here almost ready for spring? This winter has zapped my energy levels big time.

this winter has turned out to be 1981-82 all over again.Larry cosgrove went with this analog back in the fall.81-82 saw the very cold january but then the pattern tottly broke down in febuary very much like what we have seen this winter progessen wise.the Nao was also postive in the means that winter but had the negative epo december and january.81-82 pretty good match for winter of 2013-14

this was one of the things I think Phil was warning about as well that a change in the pattern that was giving us the -epo could mess up the great pattern cold snow wise it appearls Phils concern maybe verifing here.

I shouldn't have even brought it up. It's 3AM and I'm in the hospital (kid has severe bronchitis), so I'm probably not thinking with a clear head.

hope he feels better soon phil.sorry to here that.

Huge changes going on in the stratosphere right now, I counted 7 different breaking eddys on last night's 00z RAOB analysis. This time favoring the PNW and western Cadada.

The PV is going to bifurcate, and coupled PVA's will disperse and dampen. Convection will soon erupt over the IO/WPAC as CDS support is lessened..expect that Hadley Cell to begin pumping, as the Walker Cell type flow becomes jostled.

the models are having a really differcult time handeling this pattern it will be interisting to see where this gos mid to late february and March.another question is the AO how do you see that playing out.one thing is clear we are going into a new pattern for the nation.

Well, for the first time this winter, the stratosphere is beginning to favor you guys.

This is good news given the stratosphere has been dominating the macro-scale boundary conditions all winter.

We have had absolutely zero ENSO/AAM inertia this winter..and a very weak, submissive MJO/RMM due to the incredibly anomalous QBO stress fields.

The result of the said hemispheric shear regime has been persistent NPAC height rises. While the tropical forcings have been able to knock the ridging/wave breaking around, the general theme of rising heights somewhere around the NPAC continued given the momentum above the ferrel cell rifts.

phil are you still thinking the AO is going to trend to be more negative the data seems as Geos pointed out seems to be going for a +AO mid february

The point I want to make coming mid month is the brutal cold may retreat, however, with a tanking WPO it will offset any +AO. If you remember, November and December had a sky high AO and a tanking WPO and that was the KEY index that ushered in a colder start to our winter. So I'm not sure I buy into a vigorous warm up mid month just yet.

I agree with you tom a lot of things still on the table yet and questions that has to be looked at in the next week or show.mother nature always has the final say no matter the forecast and sometimes can throw creveballs at you.

Interesting, didn't hear that forecast yet. I think the worst of the snow will be in the next 10-14. If it does go zonal, there goes the widespread snow cover and any cold outbreaks that try to come down later will have a difficult time taking up residence with the increasing sun angle. The only reason last winter March was so cold here was the dense old snow was refrigerating the ground. That high ratio snow takes a lot to melt off even if the days are nearly 12 hours long!

Yeah Larry tends to posts his thoughts on his facebook page.He thinks everyone is ingoreing the warm up that is taking place starting february 13.Alot of people are giving him heart burn about his idea but his idea could be just as right as everyone in the end.Can't dismissed a forecasts that has it happen yet.

Listened to JB's Raging Weather bull today and he was saying he suspects the first 10 days of February will be the worst of the winter as far as coverage wise. Then I think he was suggesting things relax. 

I think things will relax but more like the last week of February - for the Eastern half of the country

Agreed analogs 81-82 93-94 78-79  61-62 have all been decent for this winter.Larry Cosgrove tends to think the pattern breaks down february 13 and becomes a zonal flow so there is some debate of when the pattern breaks down.

phil what your thoughts on when the pattern breaks down.Larry cosgrove thinks the -Ao breaks down after febuary 13 or so and we go into a zonal flow for most sounds like he going with the 77 and 82 analogs as he has all winter.

81-82 which has been larrys analog behaved a lot like this.

which way did the ecmwf go.