luvssnow_spokane

I need a cigarette ... Wait, I don't smoke...

Well, according to the NWS -- snow for Puget Sound (as of today) looks incredibly unlikely to limited. Typical scenario for here -- Plenty of cold to be tapped but no moisture. Yet! ... ANOTHER COLDER CANADIAN TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE N ON SUNDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND STILL MOIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE NEW 12Z NAM-12 SHOWS DEEPENING MOISTURE LATE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME WEAK VERTICAL MOTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH SO THAT SHOWERS COULD FALL AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO NEAR SEA-LEVEL. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AT THIS POINT BUT STAY TUNED. MERCER .LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE THE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRY WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WETTER ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE ECMWF ARE STILL FAIRLY LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW BELOW 1000 FEET WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES WELL BELOW 1300 METERS...SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH FOLLOWS THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW 1000 FEET BUT IF ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS IT WILL BE LIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST LEAVING WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LIGHT OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AT THE SURFACE. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RETROGRADING THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST SLOWLY SHIFTING OVER THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WILL STAY WITH THE DRY AND COOL FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FELTON

Well it will be nice to have some cold air here... Now lets do our snow dance!!

A nice snow to rain transition?

And super dry! --- Waiting to see some moisture and then we are talking. I think that is what we all really want... ? If it ends up like the December event I think we are going to be left for wanting. Cold without snow... Yawn!

yeah!!! looks to dry though so looks like a boring December repeat. I hope not would be another total waste of cold air.

I blame it on the power of wishful thinking... --- Maybe the riddles... Geesh I am torn.

Jack be nibbled - Jack be bold - Jack Frost is waking between the fold...

waxing his ski's and tuning up the snow blower.

Yep... good news is we will have spring to see a great winter pattern... As always!

Then he took a dump on it, ate it and then came a licked your face. How is that for a forecast?

We will get ours in the spring... Guaranteed!

What hell does this mean!? For the PNW?!

I had no fog at my house last night... got down to about 30 for a low.

EXACTLY!! --- It is not about feeling all warm and fuzzy and making up stuff. I still feel we have a chance but as it is, it is still a wait and see.

ok But I was referring to the GFS run not the ECMWF. I never said anything about ECMWF nor was Tim referring to it. I look forward to snow next month and nobody said it was not going to happen but was taking about what the models showed at face value.

What you do not like frost or maybe the possibility of sloppy rain!? -- all kidding aside I have to agree at face value it is not much to get excited about unless your fantasizing something magical will happen. Maybe things will improve in future runs but at face value it is marginal at best.

it is very possible you will be saying the same thing 15 days from now.

OMG! really!!? He is absolutely right... deal with it

Well, at least it depicts a typical outcome for here. "so close but yet so far". -- Honestly, I wonder why I even look beyond 240 anymore it is a crazy roller coaster ride. I am honestly not liking how the ridge insists on getting closer and closer to us potentially leaving us dry. Even if we get colder I could care less without moisture!!!

Yeah great Pic!! iPhones specially the newer ones take amazing pictures!

Since the fog rolled in here I have been hovering around 38/39... Quite chilly!

I agree that is why I thought it was so odd. It was gorgeous and sunny then bam!

On another note: Was a beautiful sunny day here and the fog just came pouring in like something out of the movie the "Mist" .. Honestly it was super cool just seeing it roll up our street. Very cool!

NICE! Honestly though we know how accurate the CFS is.