OmahaSnowFan

Hit 91.4 here today, but the dew mixed out to the low 60s this afternoon so not too bad. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow through Thursday as the dews are supposed to be much higher and thus keep our highs around 100. Part of me wants to see a run at 110 plus with low humidity of course

Yep, more extreme events are definitely part of the climate change. Pacific NW and Canada had a 1 in a 1000 year probability heat event, China just had a 1 in a 1000 year flood event. Some places had the same amount of rain in a few days as they get in an entire year. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/preliminary-analysis-concludes-pacific-northwest-heat-wave-was-1000-year https://www.npr.org/2021/07/25/1020342822/flooding-continues-to-devastate-zhengzhou-city-in-central-china

92 with a max HI of 104 today. Only the 5th time this month we’ve reached 90, but it looks like the last 8 days will have no problem. Biggest question next week will be dew points. On the days the GFS has us so hot dews are down in the 50s. Most forecasters don’t see them being that low so it keeps our highs cooler with the muggy air.

The GFS hasn’t backed down AND it was the model that first predicted the record shattering crazy heat for the northwest that no one believed either, so I’m not so sure yet.

GFS hasn't really backed down on it's tune for forecast highs in this upcoming long heatwave. Saw one forecaster's comment that said, it's concerning that it isn't changing and it was the model that caught onto the extreme heat in the NW and Canada first a couple of weeks ago. Here's Omaha's estimated highs from the 12Z GFS: 7/23- 98 7/24- 95 7/25- 103 7/26- 97 7/27- 104 7/28- 115 7/29-30- 90s with a backdoor cool front 7/31- 106 8/1- 105* 8/2- 106* 8/3- 112* 8/4- 108* 8/5- 109* 8/6- 114* *= temp at 18Z or 0Z as 21Z wasn't available for those hours. High might be higher those days.

I’d normally agree with you except it’s happened already this year. The GFS actually did a really good job with the record smashing highs in the NW a couple of weeks ago. Numbers that most people likely laughed at initially.

New update, 0Z GFS ***all time record high in Omaha is 110*** Similar numbers forecast for South and North Dakota!! Average high temp over 13 days: 107.5 degrees 7/23- 101 7/24- 105 7/25- 105 7/26- 98 7/27- 110 7/28- 106 7/29- 110 7/30- 109 7/31- 103 8/1- 109 8/2- 113 8/3- 115 8/4- 113

12Z GFS had us hitting 112 degrees next Tuesday the 27th. All time record high here is 110. Sure, why not. Might as well join the Pacific Northwest and Canada when they broke their all time record highs. 18Z GFS says "hold my beer". It has us basically 100+ from this Friday 7/23 all the way through the following Sunday 8/1 (9 days) with the following highs each day (from what I can see on the 3 hour incremental maps). 23- 102 24- 97 25- 103 26- 109 27- 113 28- 109 29- 110 30- 114 31- 102 (can't see 21Z so could be higher) 1- 99 (also can't see 21Z so could be higher)

So I wasn’t going to chase today bc we’re leaving town tomorrow but mainly bc the setup didn’t look that great for tornadoes. But it seems like Iowa always has one of these days each year with some kind of an over performing tornado day. And today clearly was it. I unfortunately didn’t leave the house until 330 and therefore missed all the really good, big tornadoes by Lake City, etc. I was pretty bummed as I kept heading north out of Carroll, IA just hoping the last line of pretty pathetic storms could give me something. And it did! It was pretty much a surprise tornado in an odd location on the storms and looking at radar you’d never guess there would be or was a tornado. In fact my report to NWS Des Moines caused the warning to be issued just before 6p for the Rockwell City area. The tornado was brief so I couldn’t get closer. After this the storm really did get it’s act together and looked like it might drop a big tornado but it didn’t. Still glad I pulled the trigger and chased today!

Jim’s really baffled at tomorrow’s lack of concern among other meteorologists for tomorrow’s setup here. https://www.facebook.com/JimFlowersForecaster/

Jim worried about tomorrow’s wind potential again for Omaha and surrounding areas https://fb.watch/v/3gia6MnAY/

Put together a clip of the close lightning strike from last night

There was some concern that the sensor malfunctioned at the airport last night when it measured that huge gust, but apparently it’s been verified. Also this guy put together a tweet showing an interesting notch that moved right over the airport at that time. I noticed it last night as well. Maybe a brief spin up?

This one was much more tame thankfully. I’d guess maybe 50 mph gusts at my place. Have added almost another inch of rain which brings me to about 2.25” last 24 hours. Here’s a couple of damage pics from the neighborhood.

Short clip I took while in my car near Stanton, IA. Winds were probably 60-70 mph. Thankfully very little hail or I would have lost glass. I have much more video from my dashcam I’m going to go through later today. At my house, the wind tipped over our big old grill that also had a propane tank sitting in it, but yet the little scrub bush didn’t move IMG_7889.MOV

Up to 191k without power now.

ENTIRE tree falling caught on video here in Omaha

HOLY CRAP!! Sitting here in my car and just had a bolt hit maybe 200 feet from me! And I got it on dash cam! So close I could see it hit the ground and break up into beads!

I’m stuck out in Stanton Iowa with 70-75 mph winds. Lost power back at our house too

I’ll be chasing tomorrow in Iowa. Hope to see something cool!

I would be happy with this setup for Friday

I just returned from a trip to Chadron State Park and then a couple of days out in Yellowstone. Yellowstone absolutely blew me away! Just crazy to see such a different landscape up close. The Grand Tetons still had some snow at the summits. We also ran into a hailstorm that covered the roads and hillsides in pea sized hail and dropped the temps from 81 to 46 degrees!

121 degrees in CANADA