Randyc321

The mm5 is going to bury western wa amd completely **** the hood canal up with 18 inches.

12z GFS looks to keep it all snow across Kitsap through 4 am Friday. Hr 72

Hr 78 looks to be warmer.

Your thoughts on scouring out cold?

I am new to Bainbridge this year.  I have no idea how it will go over here.  Seems like if the flow is coming from the SW the esat side of BI might be kind of sheltered.

Bainbridge Kid, what is you r experience with this?

That little orange area on Bainbridge is right where I live.

This only applies to those west metro schmucks.

My bet is no, but God I hope I'm wrong.

 

We are down to the 12z 4km/1.33km WRF and the 12z Euro being the only models showing any (semi) substantial precip/snow over the next 18 hours for King County, let alone a CZ. The latest HRRR even took away the CZ-like band it developed in an hour or two. It's looking pretty dang dry with each further run. Although, Skagit/Snohomish counties still have a chance.

 

I'm glad to have the Euro in our corner though.

 

Latest HRRR total precip through 7AM tomorrow:

 

http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016120521/seattle/hrrr_t_precip_seattle_19.png

This I could be happy about.

My house is completely bare...throw that one out!!

Same here.  

Down to 35 at 6:20 on east Bainbridge.

On another note, the 00z GEM sure is nice. 6-10 inches for most of Western WA by Friday afternoon. Lock it in. It's happening. Done deal.

 

In the believable range, it shows 2-3 inches by Tuesday morning for most places away from the water.

That shows like 9-10 inches for my part of the island.  I don't even know if we have snow plows on Bainbridge very often.  I haven't lived here since before the snow stopped falling in Western Washington.  I don't mind being stuck at home!  

I would love for this to prove out.

Exactly.  It sucks.

I'm right by the ferry and Winslow.  You?

You think you're pessimistic... Think about how people feel who live at Sea-level in way less favorable locations. Be thankful. 

Bainbridge Island. Sea level.  Well basically sea level.  Great place to live.  Not so great for snow.

Kitsap looks like .5-1 inch across Silverdale/Port Orchard/Grapeview areas... more (3-5) near the Olympics like Shelton/Hoodsport/Brinnon.

Thanks Hawkstwelve  

At this point a dusting would even be enjoyable.  The annoying part is when it falls while you are sleeping.

Also, ECMWF only shows Skagit/Whatcom expanding their snow totals on Christmas Eve, nothing for the rest of Western WA. That being said, on Christmas day, looks like King/Snohomish/Pierce counties get a little more.

 

Totals by Christmas afternoon (rough idea):

Pierce: 0 near the water, 3-5 near Eatonville

King: 0 near the water, 3-5 near North Bend

Snohomish: 1 inch near the water, 4 inches near Granite Falls

Whatcom: 3 inches near Bellingham, 7 near the border

 

Willing to add a Kitsap guess in there for us???

My kid said it was just dumping at home and 32.3.

Gold Mountain area?

It can happen man. Been a minute since we had a good upslope event. But it can drop 2 feet or more over here in the canal with that type off pattern.

It will be interesting to see my first winter weather at our new house.  I used to live at 375' in East Brem.  Now I live basically at zero on the water. 

10 inches in bremerton"

If only we could get that lucky.  It's been so long.  People would be buried in Seabeck.  Tahuya looks like it would see about 18".

After Mondays system clears, the first half of January is looking like it could be a total snoozefest on the GFS.  Mild too.

Ok, I have a question here.  Why do you believe this?  There is no long consistency and quite honestly cold sneaks up on us a lot of the time.  We usually don't know till a couple of days out. Why are bad patterns trusted and good one's scorned for being false?  I don't think we know that much yet.  I think we are getting there, but weather is still a mystery to most of us.  Pessimism will keep you from being disappointed though.  However, I am keeping my hopes alive.  We have to get some snowy weather eventually, and I don't remember this forum feeling like a cold wave and snow can be seen out at two weeks in past years.  It seems that way now.  I think too many people are trusting the models to be right.

Just my thoughts. 

Edit:  Not talking about Arctic blasts,  We  used to have plenty of quickly generated short snow events.  I guess I just don't believe those are gone for good.

I just don't buy the argument that cold is "wasted" if it doesn't snow. Cold airmasses are impressive in their own right. Snow is fickle. Ephemeral. Too many stars need to align for snow to happen in Portland or Seattle. So if it doesn't happen, that shouldn't be cause for any grief. Not if you're looking at it rationally anyway...which I think may be the real issue with a lot of people.

That's just it though!  It's not about rationality.  Who would rationally ask for weather that requires more work all the way around. Shoveling, scraping, bundling up, wet floors from the dogs, higher heat costs, accidents, it goes on.  Snow is work, yet we wish for it.  Incessantly.  Where is any of this rational? 

Now, I want some snow.  Gonna have to take a drive maybe....

It is not about the lack of cold --- WE WANT SNOW!!!!  Capiche?!   NOW... let me make it simple ... it would be like having all of our 75 to 85 degree days be 100% cloudy with heavy rain the entire time year after year. I am not sure why this is so hard for people to understand. It is not whining, it is preference. Yes, I enjoy the cold but it seems wasted year after year when we just can't get substantial snow. I may be reading between the lines but I do not think anyone is complaining about the cold or lack of it. 

It's interesting for just a short period of time without snow.  For those of us that love snow, it's akin to being a kid again.  It's just that fun with snow, and just that boring without.  Oh, and frustrating..

(.. cross-reference.)

 

.. Just dropping this in here to the "January" mix.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=58897  (post no. 43)

 

— With an attachment, that until the models pick up on and start digesting the more latitudinal component of what I've suggested as being likely, in my view all bets more negative, are off.

Richard, you have been right early out before when no one noticed a pattern coming,,,,,You do think some cold is coming down don't you.  Say after the 4th or so.  What I can't understand, and please feel free to call me dense, but the eastern movement I can't figure out.  Will the cold penetrate much east of the Rockies, do you think?

Thanks and sorry.  I am getting better at reading your posts, I just can't understand what you see happening completely.

Hey guys, can I ask a question?

Do the 6/12z GFS show as much freezing rain from 1/7-1/8 as I think it does for Puget Sound?  If so,  That would be horrible.  And yes, I know it's way out there, but if so bears watching.

Trying to learn and it looks like that might not be snow,  And why it would be which type of precip.

Thanks

meanwhile, snow is mixing in with the rain here now.

Yeah, about 5:15 I had a pretty heavy hail shower.

I just like when you run the 12z out to about 5 am tomorrow it shows a blob of moisture hanging over West Kitsap/Hood Canal.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2014122812&fh=24&xpos=0&ypos=257

The temps do look iffy.  Anybody want take a stab at temps in the time frame in this area?

You posted a map that's zoomed pretty far out over North America that doesn't show the details.

 

This view of the same frame shows the parallel is doing a pretty D**n good job:

 

gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_wus_1.png

I just like when you run the 12z out to about 5 am tomorrow it shows a blob of moisture hanging over West Kitsap/Hood Canal.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2014122812&fh=24&xpos=0&ypos=257

Based on models he could run into snow as he heads north of Canadian border Saturday early afternoon, then up through BC should turn cold/dry as he gets through central BC.

Thanks DJ.  I was looking at the Whitehorse forecast and it just look D**n cold.  I will look at the Cascade portion of the drive.  That's a good call.

Merry Christmas to the forum.

New member here, but I have been a lurking member of the old forum since about the 2006 windstorm I believe.

 

Guys, my son is driving to Anchorage.  Starting Saturday morning.  He has a great strong 4x4 Dodge 1500, chains, block heater, xtra jerry cans of gas and  water, a passenger, AAA, and a big credit limit.  What do you think he should expect?

 

Thanks a bunch.  He's 27 and has traveled the world, is a master diver, and an outdoorsman, but he's still my son.

Oh yeah, and if some of the Canada boys would chime in, I would appreciate it.

Merry Christmas to the forum.

New member here, but I have been a lurking member of the old forum since about the 2006 windstorm I believe.

Guys, my son is driving to Anchorage.  Starting Saturday morning.  He has a great strong 4x4 Dodge 1500, chains, block heater, xtra jerry cans of gas and  water, a passenger, AAA, and a big credit limit.  What do you think he should expect?

Thanks a bunch.  He's 27 and has traveled the world, is a master diver, and an outdoorsman, but he's still my son.