bainbridgekid

40 minutes ago, Phil said:

Technically speaking, everyone on this forum is likely in the top 0.5% relative to the global population.

Considering nearly 10% of the world's population lives in the US and Western Europe, that's definitely not true.

Nice to see Snoqualmie getting snow this morning. Puking up there right now.

19 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Thanks for the offer, but luckily we picked up a hotel reservation last night a bit outside of the eclipse totality area in Arkansas as our backup plan. Traffic will probably be crazy that day so if needed we'll just have to leave at 4am to secure a spot to view the eclipse.

 

12z run was the first great run for my planned area in Texas since Mondays 18z, really terrible for Arkansas though. Only 294 hours out, probably no room for it to improve at this range. Kinda weird that this map uses blue as clouds and white as clear skies, youd think itd be the opposite.

Those cloud maps are way overly pessimistic. Very unlikely all of those states will have 100% cloudcover like that. They seem to translate any cloudcover as 100% cloudcover as evidenced by the extremely sharp cutoff between full cloud cover and zero clouds it's predicting. That's rarely reality.

Euro and GFS both get quite chilly day 8-10.

522 thicknesses, 850's around -6 and some foothill snow.

Pretty rare to see such an intense CZ like band near Silverdale like this.

Tremendous bluebird day at Whistler today. 50 in the village and around 30 up top.

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

This sure fell apart... here is total snow now per the ECMWF over the weekend through Monday.

Yeah. Each run just slashed totals from the last. Pretty pathetic.

Now just hoping it'll be dry enough this weekend for decent skiing despite temps in the mid 30's. Euro and GFS are both pretty dry during the day both days.

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Way to beat those C0CKS!

My 4th grade class filled out brackets this morning and some of them kept asking me what the mascots are to help with their picks. The Gamecocks elicited quite the gigglefest. 

DOWN GOES KENTUCKY 

First round insanity continues.

15 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Where is the Twin Cities on this map?

It's the 30.3" just West of where Wisconsin cuts into Minnesota. 

Huge increase in mountain snowfall this weekend on the 18z GFS. Shows over 2 feet for Snoqualmie and Stevens just through Sunday night.

Phantom snow is back! Next Wednsday morning on the 12z GFS.

In non Phantom news, it also shows about 3 feet of mountain snow for the Cascades of Washington between this weekend and middle of next week. Would be excellent news.

Saturday is very chilly on the 6z GFS with a perfectly timed deformation band all afternoon keeps 2 PM temps in the low 40's North of Seattle. Also has several feet of mountain snow next week with persistent cold onshore flow through Thursday.

00z GFS really increased mountain snow early next week. Over 2 feet for both Snoqualmie and Stevens Pass which would be great.

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

This month is absolutely torching too, just for good measure. Minneapolis is running a +11.5 anomaly. Just unending. 

Climate change appears to be accelerating more and more with baselines shifting. The big Nino this winter probably kicked things up a notch. 

I wish my unending torches included a potential 2 foot snowstorm like Minneapolis might have this weekend.

39 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Environment Canada says this was the warmest winter on record for Canada. Averaging 9.4F above normal.  

Not only that, but it was 2 full degrees F warmer than the previous record in 09-10. Crazy to break a full country seasonal record by that much.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/canada-winter-wmo-climate-1.7147699#:~:text=On average%2C the temperature over,4.1 C above the norm.

12 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It's almost always too warm for snow there except when there is an approaching warm front with cold air available on the east side of the Cascades. Which describes at least half of our winter weather systems. So it dumps feet of snow there with the snow level sitting at 2950 ft at the ski resort and 4500 ft just about everywhere else in the Cascades. 

The crazy thing is that Snoqualmie actually had better early season coverage than Crystal and Mt. Baker this year because picked up a few feet from their microclimate in early December while everyone else was seeing rain. And a high of 40 with December "sun" doesn't melt anything. I was up there around Christmas and it looked much better than I was expecting. 

The projections continue to indicate that there are about 20 years of skiing left at Snoqualmie before it gets too warm, but so far the 2014-15 winter was the only one where they didn't get enough snow to have a full season. 

04-05 and 09-10 were pretty awful there too. But overall I've been pleasantly surprised by how well they've continued to do. As you describe it really is amazing how often it's raining the entire drive up and then turns to snow right as you basically turn into the parking lot. One of the consistently more extreme microclimates I've ever experienced.

The cold East wind also helps preserve the snow long after they turn to rain as well. After a snowstorm it'll often stay under 35 at Snoqualmie for many hours while it's 42 and raining with a strong snow eating South wind at Baker and Crystal.

3pm and it's just 54 at the Mukilteo Ferry Terminal with a cold North wind and 65 at my house 5 miles away. 

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAMUKIL45

Amazing how big a difference being along the water can make in situations like this. Glad it works the other way during snow events.

Quillayute hit 80 yesterday and broke their daily record by 16 degrees. Pretty nutty. 

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What is the water in the background?

Lake Ballinger in Mountlake Terrace. Nice little course right by my school called The Nile. 

First round of golf in six months. Sun feels amazing. Swing less so.

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Comparatively chilly day in Seattle compared to places away from the water.    Its warmer at Snoqualmie Pass than it is at many of the stations in the city of Seattle.   

 

49 at the tip of Magnolia and 61 in Capitol Hill. Pretty unusual to see a 12 degree difference within the city limits like that.

That's one hell of a crash on the 18z.

Tuesday afternoon is 68 in Seattle and then it's 44 Wednesday afternoon with 6-10" of snow in the mountains by Wednesday evening.

68 in Forks and a Personal Weather Station in La Push right by the beach is reporting 72.

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAFORKS36/graph/2024-03-15/2024-03-15/daily

10 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

The anomalies off the coast of Atlantic Canada are positive.

What do you think a 90 degree clockwise turn means? It doesn't mean the Atlantic Canada anomalies move here, but that the entire anomaly map spins around the center a quarter turn.

Granted, that was a very odd way for Phil to word a forecast (even for him.)