Grizzcoat

Officially down to TR--- but most areas away from the ARPT have the grass covered-- but not for very long with temps into the 40's today. Next storm for Fri night looking a little better-- at least it's something to look forward to and not 240 hours out...

I work graveyard. I will go to bed when my shift ends. Just stating what is posted from local NWS sites. This site at times is so much "wish casting" -- truth is at times hard to discern. Seems when something is posted that says no/little snow for a certain area-- it gets blasted. Just trying to keep it real.

Sorry to the Chicago folks on here,,, especially the suburbs to the west. From the LOT disco this AM: IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS MAY SEE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THIS COULD POSSIBLY BE THE CASE INTO PORTIONS OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW NOW LOOK TO BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS.

A bit off topic, but the dying piece of energy still giving us snow in Central Iowa. Much more than was anticipated. Anywhere from 1 1/4" to 2 1/2" throughout the metro. So, don't give up hope...the models can be wrong even 12 hours out as nobody here was expecting more than a half inch in the DSM metro. Happy Festivus to the Iowans!!!

Update-- 1.3" since 6pm. snow was measured every hour and then cleared off a snowboard. About half of that on grassy services-- roads just getting accumulation to stick in last 90 minutes-- mainly slush but scattered slick spots.

The Ground is white in my locale (30 min WNW of Des Moines)-- about .5" at 6pm and about 1" since. Roads are still wet-- temperature never colder then 32.2F-- but hey tomorrow is Christmas Eve and the timing couldn't any better. The dynamic cooling this time I was not very impressed with-- but at least its snowing. Basically was a nowcast and the NWS is still playing catch up. Places 1 hour N have had 4" and that was some time ago.

Wildcard winner is-- RFD- GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: RFD LAT= 42.20 LON= -89.10 ELE= 742 00Z DEC23 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 00Z 23-DEC 2.3 1.1 1004 98 97 544 540 TUE 06Z 23-DEC 2.9 2.6 1001 98 99 0.09 543 543 TUE 12Z 23-DEC 4.7 -0.1 1000 97 44 0.21 539 539 TUE 18Z 23-DEC 5.8 -0.5 1004 79 13 0.00 544 541 WED 00Z 24-DEC 3.5 -1.1 1007 90 13 0.00 546 540 WED 06Z 24-DEC 1.8 -0.3 1006 95 39 0.00 546 541 WED 12Z 24-DEC 1.4 -2.3 1003 96 77 0.01 542 540 WED 18Z 24-DEC 1.4 -3.5 997 98 98 0.20 535 538 THU 00Z 25-DEC 0.9 -3.6 999 96 93 0.19 533 534 THU 06Z 25-DEC -2.2 -4.3 1003 94 38 0.00 538 535 THU 12Z 25-DEC -3.1 -1.4 1009 95 82 0.00 546 539

GRB- GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: GRB LAT= 44.48 LON= -88.10 ELE= 689 00Z DEC23 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 00Z 23-DEC 1.1 -1.3 1009 88 98 544 537 TUE 06Z 23-DEC 1.6 0.5 1006 98 100 0.22 544 539 TUE 12Z 23-DEC 1.6 -0.3 1003 99 99 0.28 542 540 TUE 18Z 23-DEC 3.1 -0.2 1002 100 41 0.16 538 536 WED 00Z 24-DEC 1.9 -1.9 1006 97 39 0.00 543 538 WED 06Z 24-DEC 1.2 -2.0 1007 96 25 0.00 544 539 WED 12Z 24-DEC 1.7 -2.4 1004 95 31 0.00 543 540 WED 18Z 24-DEC 1.6 -2.6 997 100 95 0.08 538 540 THU 00Z 25-DEC 0.6 -3.5 993 91 96 0.12 530 536 THU 06Z 25-DEC -1.4 -5.5 997 89 58 0.01 532 534 THU 12Z 25-DEC -1.2 -3.0 1004 92 90 0.00 539 536

MKE- GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MKE LAT= 42.95 LON= -87.90 ELE= 692 00Z DEC23 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 00Z 23-DEC 3.2 0.4 1007 94 97 545 540 TUE 06Z 23-DEC 3.4 2.1 1004 95 95 0.15 545 542 TUE 12Z 23-DEC 4.5 2.6 1001 97 84 0.33 540 540 TUE 18Z 23-DEC 5.7 0.3 1004 84 12 0.00 544 541 WED 00Z 24-DEC 4.4 -0.8 1007 86 12 0.00 547 541 WED 06Z 24-DEC 2.9 0.1 1007 91 31 0.00 547 541 WED 12Z 24-DEC 2.7 -2.2 1003 93 97 0.02 544 542 WED 18Z 24-DEC 2.8 -2.8 994 97 99 0.26 537 542 THU 00Z 25-DEC 1.9 -3.3 995 93 99 0.51 531 535 THU 06Z 25-DEC -0.6 -4.3 1000 88 51 0.03 534 535 THU 12Z 25-DEC -1.3 -2.3 1007 90 75 0.00 543 537

Just posting GFS data-- not saying I agree or disagree with it-- just posting it. I will do ORD- MKE - GRB and a wild card winner. GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: ORD LAT= 41.98 LON= -87.90 ELE= 673 00Z DEC23 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 00Z 23-DEC 3.7 1.0 1006 97 100 546 541 TUE 06Z 23-DEC 3.6 3.4 1002 96 98 0.09 545 544 TUE 12Z 23-DEC 5.6 2.3 1002 97 48 0.25 543 542 TUE 18Z 23-DEC 6.7 0.9 1005 75 7 0.00 547 543 WED 00Z 24-DEC 4.4 0.3 1007 87 12 0.00 548 542 WED 06Z 24-DEC 3.0 1.7 1006 91 76 0.00 548 543 WED 12Z 24-DEC 2.6 -2.5 1003 97 98 0.17 545 543 WED 18Z 24-DEC 2.1 -2.7 994 99 97 0.31 535 540 THU 00Z 25-DEC 1.2 -3.4 997 97 100 0.26 532 534 THU 06Z 25-DEC -1.0 -3.7 1002 92 58 0.02 536 535 THU 12Z 25-DEC -2.8 -2.4 1009 94 57 0.00 545 538

They never do!!! If had a $5 bill for every inch the GFS has forecasted for central IA say past hour 120 over the last 16 years- that we didn't get-- I'd have a a monthly house payment, easily.

Check it yourself. It right according to instant weather. 5" of snow in NC IA in 3 hours???

Nope -- total snowfall through period.

GFS through 60-

OK-- I admit. I'am searching for something- anything that shows some snow for central IA. The hi-res NAM aint so bad- Too bad it likely not going to happen-- but at least I have some hope.

Need a little laughter??? This seems to be working for me. Denny Green talking weather some years back--- lmao! Calcutta Clipper. http://www.hark.com/clips/qydgcwxnzt-calcutta-clipper

A DEC not to remember for winter in the plains. Seems like late OCT here in IA with leaves still on ground and in the trees. Unreal with expectations of early DEC when it was warm and dry for snow late in the month. Records are going to be tied or broken with lack of snowcover....

The Euro has actually improved snowfall totals for N and NW IA for the early week system. Keep the trend going and --- WHOA-- I might even have a white backyard ( all I'am asking for Santa is .5 to .75" ) and DSM may move down the scale on least snowiest DEC. SO sad that that is my current state of mind. NOV was like having a super hot chick talk to you at the bar only to have her husband return from the jon. Only Jan 06' was worse. No way JB hits DEC right for temps as DSM is currently +6.1-- and JB forecasted -1 to -3F. Enough venting. Even though it seems to be kind of working.

DSM is on pace to tie 2002 (one of JB's analogs) for least snowiest DEC ever at a trace. DSM missed the latest occurrence of any snow in DEC by 2 days this year. I'am usually not negative-- but I'am trying some reverse psychology on this horrible month for winter lovers.

Good point. But my overall point is that people like to trash the NAM-- almost like it's the old NGM. The NAM nailed two events in NOV for the Upper Midwest.

Would be the 3rd time I can remember since NOV that the NAM actually led the way--- if its right.

--https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8E_zMLCRNg

Here you go my CHI buddies-- but this means you must cheer for the Wild when the hawks play them again the playoffs;; jk.. FS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: ORD LAT= 41.98 LON= -87.90 ELE= 673 18Z DEC20 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 18Z 20-DEC 0.5 -6.0 1026 65 64 549 528 SUN 00Z 21-DEC -0.8 -5.5 1025 68 58 0.00 551 531 SUN 06Z 21-DEC -1.7 -5.6 1025 75 57 0.00 553 533 SUN 12Z 21-DEC -1.0 -6.5 1024 79 35 0.00 554 534 SUN 18Z 21-DEC 2.4 -3.1 1022 66 80 0.00 554 536 MON 00Z 22-DEC 0.6 0.0 1019 76 54 0.00 553 538 MON 06Z 22-DEC -0.4 -1.9 1015 77 52 0.00 549 537 MON 12Z 22-DEC 0.2 -0.3 1010 70 96 0.00 547 538 MON 18Z 22-DEC 3.8 1.5 1005 77 99 0.02 545 541 TUE 00Z 23-DEC 4.5 1.6 1002 96 97 0.11 544 543 TUE 06Z 23-DEC 4.8 1.8 1003 97 98 0.08 545 542 TUE 12Z 23-DEC 5.2 2.1 1004 97 72 0.10 545 542 TUE 18Z 23-DEC 6.6 0.3 1004 80 25 0.00 546 542 WED 00Z 24-DEC 4.0 -2.1 1009 83 31 0.00 548 540 WED 06Z 24-DEC 1.8 0.0 1010 93 60 0.00 550 542 WED 12Z 24-DEC 1.9 0.1 1007 90 96 0.01 550 544 WED 18Z 24-DEC 2.1 -1.5 1000 94 99 0.19 546 546 THU 00Z 25-DEC 1.8 -2.7 993 97 98 0.81 536 542 THU 06Z 25-DEC -0.4 -4.3 996 92 84 0.59 533 537 THU 12Z 25-DEC -3.6 -2.7 1004 91 33 0.00 540 537

Since it's the day after Christmas-- putting this in this thread--- as mentioned-- not good being in the bullseye really anytime other then 48-60 hours out--- but at least it makes more since with the indexes and someone should get close to 1' with high ratios---

ORD- GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: ORD LAT= 41.98 LON= -87.90 ELE= 673 00Z DEC20 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 00Z 20-DEC -2.2 -4.8 1028 81 40 556 534 SAT 06Z 20-DEC -2.1 -3.8 1026 83 39 0.00 554 533 SAT 12Z 20-DEC -2.8 -5.4 1026 89 57 0.00 552 531 SAT 18Z 20-DEC 0.6 -5.6 1025 63 66 0.00 550 530 SUN 00Z 21-DEC -1.4 -5.5 1025 65 37 0.00 551 532 SUN 06Z 21-DEC -1.1 -5.8 1024 64 45 0.00 554 534 SUN 12Z 21-DEC -0.9 -2.7 1023 73 37 0.00 554 536 SUN 18Z 21-DEC 2.5 0.4 1021 69 81 0.00 554 537 MON 00Z 22-DEC 1.2 0.7 1018 76 66 0.00 552 538 MON 06Z 22-DEC 0.1 0.4 1014 79 50 0.00 549 538 MON 12Z 22-DEC 0.1 0.8 1010 78 95 0.00 546 538 MON 18Z 22-DEC 4.5 1.5 1004 81 96 0.02 544 541 TUE 00Z 23-DEC 4.6 1.5 1001 96 91 0.08 543 542 TUE 06Z 23-DEC 4.7 -0.7 1003 97 45 0.00 545 542 TUE 12Z 23-DEC 4.2 0.9 1004 98 98 0.04 546 543 TUE 18Z 23-DEC 5.1 1.6 1003 90 89 0.09 547 544 WED 00Z 24-DEC 3.4 -0.2 1004 89 96 0.03 546 543 WED 06Z 24-DEC 2.3 -0.8 1000 94 96 0.09 543 543 WED 12Z 24-DEC 1.1 -2.2 994 97 97 0.29 533 538 WED 18Z 24-DEC 0.7 -3.9 991 98 100 0.25 525 532 THU 00Z 25-DEC -0.4 -5.3 994 92 98 0.09 526 531 THU 06Z 25-DEC -1.7 -5.3 995 91 79 0.03 526 530 THU 12Z 25-DEC -5.1 -5.6 1000 90 53 0.00 527 527 THU 18Z 25-DEC -3.3 -4.6 1003 85 14 0.00 534 531 FRI 00Z 26-DEC -3.3 -2.9 1007 88 39 0.00 541 535 FRI 06Z 26-DEC -2.3 -2.9 1008 89 93 0.00 543 536 FRI 12Z 26-DEC -2.0 -6.4 1008 94 99 0.03 540 533 FRI 18Z 26-DEC -2.6 -6.8 1012 87 74 0.05 535 526