OKwx2k4

DMX talking possible snow showers wednesday night. If the colder air can get here sooner then its possible but idk.

Hopefully you folks up there get to see some flakes!

Phil was saying the same thing about uncharted territory in his winter forecast post.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/978-winter-forecast/

I can't really make some of the years fit that were used in his forecast. I have great respect though for the amount of work and thought that were put into that. This really is pretty much the ultimate wild card year in my opion. If ENSO 1.2 continues to die out through this next month then a lot of people are going to end up tossing their forecasts before winter even starts. Especially those that used 1997-98 and 1982-83. Just my thoughts at the moment.

Yeah, Geos, I like that there isn't really a mold so to speak for what this year fits into. There are hints of a lot of different years in there. Will be interesting as the pattern shuffles again over the next 10-12 days (both gfs and euro are in fair agreement I think) to see how or if a cold shot can take a run at that ridge. In that instance you revert back to an 09-10 look but what comes after is quite a mystery. Still waiting to get my 1st frost into the books down here. Hopefully by the 10th the wait will be over.

No cold November on the Euro huh? Going to be a disappointing deer rifle season for me down here if that verifies.

Does anyone else think it is very odd to have such a Huge ridge developing Week 1-2 in the East/SE, especially during a Strong El NINO??? Doesn't bode well for storms up the EC if this is part of the LRC pattern this year. Good pattern for storm systems in the west/central CONUS. I'm really interested to see next months JAMSTEC mode's output for the Dec-Feb period. I think that model was the only one which had the coldest temps centered farther back west in the central states...might be catching onto something.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1oct2015.gif

It is very odd to see the ridge there. I have no conclusions yet as to why though.

SST in R1.2 dropping like a rock. Super basin-wide modoki hybrid by December? Makes for a crazy sounding El Niño description huh?

One thing to point out, the long range gfs shows a lot of storms coming out of the southwest, hopefully the dominant component of the LRC!!

Need the cold down here though. At least in the south where I'm at.

Not even remotely close.

On Weather Geeks this morning on TWC they were talking about how strong this is and keep comparing it to 82-83 and 97-98.

Yeah. I laugh every time I hear those 2 years used as climo for what this winter will be like. Nothing has been similar pretty much anywhere since August but they can beat the dead horse all they want and keep posting the standard nino temperature maps for this winter. Lol. I'll be laughing when they're wrong.

The usual thing that is happening now is that autumns preceding strong El Niño winters heavily favor colder than normal autumns. Which hasn't been the case so far this autumn. We're in uncharted territory with regards to the El Niño and the warmer than normal eastern North Pacific.

 

Hoosier on Amwx weather did a little digging and only found 2 seasons that somewhat resemble the conditions going on now and both of them ended up colder than normal winters for a big part of the country.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46551-winter-2015-16-discussion/?p=3729450

 

Throw in the fact were really low with solar activity and we're really looking at a unknown for this winter.

I'll also add that I have looked at some other similar years as far as the patterns go and they also proved to end up both cold and very wintry for a large area of the US. I think we're heading in the right direction. Also if a true -NAO develops, it should serve to make this winter even more exciting.

So, we're going into a Nina style pattern in an El Nino with a STJ starting up? Wow. This should be interesting.

..including the death-wish chasers? "Stupid is as stupid does" to quote a famous American icon.

You have a point. Best of luck to those idiots! Lol.

That hurricane is in the 870s now... just incredible, not too far off the world record.

Yeah. Just insane. Many prayers for anyone in that thing's way.

Those are the 2 main points I tried to make. The MJO phase could also be directly related to the cycling pattern as Jim Flowers uses that in his cycling theory as well. It'll be interesting how this all comes together. I'd like to see a more negative AO/NAO when these storms however come back.

I'm only beginning to learn how to use the MJO as a guide. Making it one of my primary studies this winter as we progress. In my opinion, if everything goes the way I think it will, we should have a negative AO/NAO. Just a lot of traffic in the atmosphere right now so to speak.

OH no, not at all, I'm not expecting Hurricanes/Typhoon's to keep forming every cycle. In other words, we can expect another "storm" to develop in the same timeline for every cycle. It doesn't mean it will hold the same strength/intensity/etc. The LRC gives us an idea of where the next storm may track in the future.

I'll add that this is likely a combination of many factors at play that won't likely be in the coming 4-6 weeks. (MJO phase, seasonal transitions, extremely warm water relative to average) However the surface/upper low should be back.

That hurricane tho that's about to hit Mexico (200 mph winds and 880 mb

Yeah. That's pretty insane.

If there's really a repeating pattern, repeat the one coming up over the next 10 in about 45-50 days. :-) I'll be happy as can be if that happens.

I agree, can't put much stock in it. However, it does point out some clues as to what we can look forward to down the road.

Agreed. When you draw up similar circumstances and patterns and begin to overlay some years that shared the progression we are seeing right now with the pattern, you begin to get some pretty interesting ideas of what could come down the road as it evolves. I am more optimistic about winter than I have been about one in a very long time. :-)

Euro Weeklies continue to show a very active southern jet as we head into November. Still like the idea of a cooler front 10 days of November before the trough pulls back west and south. Mid November may have a relaxed period before the pattern turns colder/stormier around the 20th or so.

 

@ OKwx2K4, your going to have a ton of precip coming over the next 45 days!

Yeah! I will take the rain though. Much needed. My yard died. Not that it matters at this point because the first frost for me is around the corner but I like it anyway.

I'm not going to buy much long stock in any models for a bit. Too many possible outcomes to sort out. We'll have to wait until after the typhoon recurve and GoM storm to get a clearer picture of what's to come. Just my opinions.

About the 10th of November the CFS will know what the last 20 days of the month will be like. Lol

I actually wouldn't be disappointed if the first half of November averaged normal. Just let all heck break loose around Thanksgiving and into December. :-)

First snows in the Rockies....Aspen and Snowmass getting their first taste of Winter...

 

http://aspen.roundshot.com/aspen/?_ga=1.4607091.1762331871.1445535734

 

http://aspen.roundshot.com/snowmass/?_ga=1.43879525.1762331871.1445535734

Pure beauty right there.

Question, is there any site that has just a raw ocean surface temperature archive with a really long history? Say maybe 1950 or so?

Thanks!!

still looking pretty average to me in the mid/long range, maybe a tad above normal if you average everything out.

Averaged out over the duration of the run, pretty close to average for you folks up north. I take it I'm the only one from the south Central US in this group down here but relative to average it would be more below for me. I'll try to be a little more specific in the future.