OKwx2k4

My theory here goes that the longer it's warm, the harder it falls, so we will see.

Starting off October in the warm and extremely dry camp here over the next 7 days. Looks to be pretty boring in the weather sense around much of the region for a bit. Looking throughout days 7-14 and beyond looks to see a long-delayed (compared to many recent years) pattern reversal start to show up and possibly even a SW ridge start to show up. I can't stress enough how badly my region will need rainfall after the next 14 days is over if precip chances do not start to increase.

Well, it may be feedbacks from watching the oceans cool over where they are currently warmest. Seeing that right now in a lot of regions. If the landmasses in the N.H. are simply lagging in this, our future pattern is polar opposite to the hot one we see now.

Generally looking right now towards winter struggling in the far NE this season and along the coast of the Mid-atlantic states. I think we see a continuing trend of snowy interior places and in the N. Rockies/Plains, but it'll be hard to see how the clash between a seemingly stubborn warmth trend in the gulf and troughs will play out or if that warmth throws a ridge over the southeast all winter.

Glad to see winter discos up. I will try to be back in more often. I hope you all have had a wonderful summer. First glances based simply on SSTs look like some parts of the US may get cold early. When you have a La Nina and such an unusual signal in the N. Pac with the warmth so far west, it leaves me in a spot of confusion on what feedbacks we will see.

Being from the edge of the purple OK/AR/KS/MO area I can attest to this being true. It's usually noticed more here because of the trees as well as compared to somewhere further west in the flatter grasslands/plains.

Definitely a plus to have rain but not at the cost of thrashing the crops. It's a wonder of how many different hits they can take.

Going to feel like a true festivus in July miracle.

@westMJim I find it amazing that what is regarded widely as the coldest February ever nationwide fell in what is still regarded as the hottest year in US history, 1936. The extremes that we see sometimes just in a state, also are very amazing. The balances we see over small spans.

Well, after hurricane Beryl's passing here and points east, our weather actually looks to rise to above normal temperatures and then, per euro ens may well see July close with falling temperatures vs the average. Will be really interesting to see how the month closes out over the eastern US. Also have begun watching the seasonal changes over the northern Pacific. If I'm reading the SST profiles well, they also back me up on a cooling trend over the eastern and central US. An area I'm going to watch very closely will be the waters around the Aleutian islands. Reminds me of autumn out today actually. Beautiful weather for July.

An unbelievable number of tornado warnings right now on the Northeast side of Beryl. Wow... Don't need a massive hurricane when you have seven tornadoes or more.

I'm sorry to hear about the crop losses. I know that's a hard thing to deal with in itself then adding in the countless property losses its just tough. You said the rest very well. It goes around you sometimes for years, until it doesn't.

It looks to me like Hastings is about to be hit by tornado. I pray not.

Was coming back on to say there's some bad stuff going on up there near or north of Hastings. Holy moly. Looks like an unwarned tornado honestly.

I know a lot of folks will be very happy to see the rainfall associated with the tropics and also our frontal boundary heading down the plains.