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OKwx2k4

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OKwx2k4 last won the day on November 2 2019

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  1. Seeing my old friend, the EPO wake up in the last few months, esp as the SSTs make an attempt at looking Niño to CP-based warming rolling forward. Will be interesting as well to see what effects the Pac tropical season will do as the warm waters surface. West Pacific typhoons are going to be a modulator and influence in our region's weather after July 1.
  2. I'm holding the "not so fast" camp down hard, too. My main threats over the interior west going forward are the rapidly increasing drought threat. Drought does not always translate to heat. If I were over the proper agriculture dept, I'd have a full disaster support initiative ready for a flash drought crisis. Longer range known climate patters here lead me in the direction of a long-term trough showing up in at least one summer month in a probably 2009ish sort of way. Lots of flavors of the late 80s years and the 1990-1994 mini-era. I think long-term warmth east of Amarillo is
  3. Adding to subject matter. A look over last night's 00z GFS run, I would say that is the most likely general runout for the pattern. Results being an interior western ridge of varying size.
  4. I believe you, myself and @Clinton are all in unanimous agreement. But yes, I have a really good feeling that I'm in severe wx jackpot zone.
  5. How long it lasts is a mystery, but that's a heck of an EPO dump. One thing for sure, after a few to 5 years in the dumpster, the old Arctic express having its punch back down in my region again is a great joy. This is setting the stages for an incredibly dangerous severe season here, if I'm right, and if drought forms over that snowy region in later months, they need all the snow they can get now.
  6. Going to go with a hard spring cancel here. After one of the earlier leaf-outs here, looking like it's all getting shut back down with a freeze. Relentless cold waves to close us off this month. Dixie severe wx seems a likely threat with the severe risks increasing here again further towards May. One thing I'm keeping note of on these warmer than avg spells is that they're getting shorter since January.
  7. Yup. Gonna get bumpy down here tonight. This could be a super severe season later on in this part of the pattern.
  8. Drought risks building in the old "Dust Bowl" region seemingly worse than I had assumed. Plus the GLs region. Lots of areas abnormally dry with nearly 50% experiencing abnormally dry weather. No doubt a La Niña hallmark.
  9. Fair enough. Thank you for sharing the maps. I'm glad we didn't get what our friends on the other side of the globe received this year. We wouldn't have been ready for it. (Looking at you, TX)lol. Jk. Global temps bomb for 4 months and America gets shorted on winter. Lol. I'm not complaining. It snowed over 10" here this winter. Sometimes we just have to accept that a winter is going to be average, with teases of the extreme. We got it, in 2020-21.
  10. If I were applying guesses, I'd say we easily see us drop to -0.2°c if not as far as -.35°c or -.4°c.
  11. Loving the scheduled precip pattern... Be glad to see it persist throughout the summer months for our region.
  12. Most balanced you'll probably ever see our global SST profile. Cold PDO ring really making its presence felt. Debatable whether we'll see another cycle of cooling on the Atlantic equatorial region, but I'm leaning there. Can see the warm spot in the Atlantic for the detached/se shifted SER. Nothing really alarming or extreme at this juncture. Would put smart money on cold enso to neutral at best going forward for awhile. PAC says climate shift is complete in my opinion. May take a few years for it to formally be called such, but I call it that.
  13. That's a heckova 10 day warm stretch showing up north and west. Bravo to the folks who nailed the warm open for the month.
  14. That's a thing of beauty. The slo mo of the hit... Pretty darn awesome.
  15. Will make for a beautiful and what appears to be pretty typical April aside from the potential blocking ahead. It's been the same reason why I've been sketched out on going full on blowtorch through April for ALL of us, but truthfully seeing the "winter" Bering Low fade there has me leaning that way. Any plus precip anomalies down here throughout the month should come with weakening/stalling or training t-storms and cold fronts. Early season drought risks evident on the high Plains but I've mentioned that before..Looks to intensify and spread over and throughout the mountain west re
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