OKwx2k4

Yeah, we definitely don't want that, but if I were a hospital, brushing my staff up hypothermia treatment would be a good thing about now.

Here's the pic. Should have went with my post above. Look at that Blob shine!

The PAC temp profile sitting as it is, is the textbook for how to load a massive shift down the road. All the players on that side locked in, now it's the Atlantic's turn. Stage and setup the blocking over the NE and presto. Should also see the gulf sst profile spike in the coming weeks. This is truly one of the most beautiful hemispheric climate patterns I've seen in my life in terms of loving autumn and winter. Too much good here. Hard to hold my composure but I'd get ready for winter. Summers over for the eastern and Southern parts of the sub and will be for the northern part in 3 weeks.

I've spoken of a 12-18 month cooling cycle associated with high volcanism that could start in the SO hem. There's a volcanic gas cycle study somewhere from all of the eruptions back in the early 1990s and the weather. Wildfire smoke from N.A. and Russia has taken the same 12-18 month path across the equator to the south pole. This just so happens to coincide with a few other cycles. It's why I've missed it so many times. I was very very early.

Yeah. Going to get bumpy around here after awhile.

Nice! That's eerie!

I'm sitting here this morning watching the sunrise and I notice that this is the first morning I no longer smell the flowers blooming or the sweetness in the air of what has been probably the longest spring of my lifetime. I think if there's any resemblance of a true summer in my future, now til the end of the month will be about the best strike at it we are going to see down here. It runs outside of July's time frame, but the next 3-5 weeks are going to be weird. Should see the stages set up as the month closes for another heatwave over the NW. Lots to watch.

For OK and TX, it looks like after the brief returning heat spike, we don't have a summer after. I'm fine with that! Maybe a hurricane could make it through TX, but the real threats are up amd down the EC August thru September and maybe one right up the central gulf before the troughiness of the cycle rolls back thru. With a little bit of next year's pattern starting off with them. Glad to see the rain right in the nick of time for most of the northern and eastern parts of our sub and should give plants, crops, hay enough of a kick to finish the season out barring an early frost by August's end for the north. Most of the thoughts I had back in April about this season have ran out pretty well like I pictured it.

Crazy to think you all are going to have a hotter summer in actual temperatures than I will. Crazy stuff. This will be a very hot week for a lot of folks, as advertised right now.

I'm still looking for it too, but all signs point to it being a transient heat blast at best now before re anchoring in the west. It'll be hot but a non-event to the cool we'll see after it. That's the better way to say it. That ridge/pattern has had eyes on the SW since the first one in March warmed us back out of winter. With no Niño to knock it around, it's a semi-stable block.

That's the harbinger for future seasons I've been talking about. It's 2 weeks early (in my mind) which makes any lasting heat over the central conus impossible going forward. I had us at least getting summer thru the 4th but this is fast.

Question here would be also if we are just simply seeing how much better things are built than 70 years ago. I don't honestly think the eras can be measured against one another.

I think they actually need to have solid science to go with this stuff instead of "ooh look! Be afraid!" We can all poke at the what and change the rules, but I think they need to wait before creating more confusion and chaos in things than they already are. Not all changes are good or justified. Some stuff was just right and needed left alone. They could probably do part of the 1980s that way. Then we had the 1989-1995 years where convection roared.

TS warnings up for east coast. Their hurricane season is getting started. I'm with Joe Bastardi on keeping the highest impact areas over the east coast this season with lesser amounts of tropical influence over the Gulf and possibly one coming straight on at western Florida late year. I had that pretty well nailed down from the start. Looking to see ridging stand back up over the west coast and drought risks to continue out there. That's a megadrought starting on that map and pending La Niña is no help.

Guess most models are suddenly pulling the heat out of the heartland late month. Thinking should see it try to roar back once, but really that should be it. Really thought a major stable ridge would be hard to get rid of, but it has no staying power. Like Tom said, interesting stuff.