OKwx2k4

Guess the Euro went on its cooler solutions again last night. Not as progressive shoving the cold out.

That's very nice. Are 4 and 3.4 still forecast to climb?

Over the last 4 runs on the Euro, only last nights 00z run had the AO/NAO "blip" positive which changed the entire pattern. Today's run brings back the -AO/NAO, and holds onto the -EPO/WPO look. Man, Canada fills up with -20C/-30C 850's Day 8-10 on the north side of Hudson Bay.

I saw that. That's one heck of a rapid reload up there. Should be able to fill in some of the snow holes in western Canada in the coming days. Would be fair to say the models have a lot on their plates over the next 10 days.

12z GFS seeing Plains Snow??? 12z GGEM similar with a developing SLP near the Lakes next Tue/Wed...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015102112/gfs_asnow_us_41.png

What the...? Wow! That's new.

After seeing the latest sea surface temperature anomaly maps - I can see how a jet stream like this might set up this winter.

With a primary moisture transport into the southwest.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1_101815.png

This is becoming a very viable solution in my mind as well. Leaves Cali in the dry up until likely the latest parts of the winter which is unfortunate. That outcome is also by no means warm for winter. What reanalysis I have done seems to agree with the pattern you have shown as well. This is becoming a very interesting El Nino and should be an interesting winter.

Today's edition of the CFSV2 snow maps show snow accumulations in parts of OK from 11/30 to 01/12. Wow. That's about as clear of a long range cold signal as there could be for my neighborhood.

It's getting there. Nice looking pattern coming up. All smiles right here.

Euro pretty clearly indicate from now to mid-November that there should be a large area of -2.5C 850 mb temp anomalies anchored over the south-central and southeastern US. It is centered further west compared with similar anomalies which occurred in 2009-10. I can't post images without going to the full site. I wish I could. Need to get a computer soon.

Systemic error is the correct play here I believe. Only model I know of that can contradict itself between 500mb and 2m. Some of what I was hinting at earlier in the day. Either way, not buying much stock in anything until the typhoon solutions get outlined more clearly. However, classic cold look at 500 with a low signal over Baja is what I see there.

Very nice sounding run.

Same goes for a torchy Winter...there are those on here that are also wishcasting for a "torch" this Winter. 2 sides to the coin, but I'll speak for myself here and say that for the Dec-Mar period, other than the CFSv2, most global models are hinting at an active/cold winter from the Rockies to the East. Find me another model that disagrees besides the CFSv2. I'm just showing the model maps and putting my 2 cents on what they are illustrating and what bias or model error there may be.

Same here or doing my best at it. Bias is human nature. We all have them. I won't even try to act like I don't like snow, because I do. I value folks opinions that have an opposite viewpoint to mine because they encourage me to learn why it could be seen that way. However, that being said,I can't change what the models and indices forecasts say. If they all said 'torch' I would have to agree. They dont.

 

Most of all of my pure opinions will be prefaced with "I think" or some variety of that for the sake of clarity.

You're welcome to correct what I'm missing by interpretation of the models. Just stating my interpretation and understanding. I welcome intelligent correction and an opportunity to learn.

Bring it on Tom! CFS is trying it's best to correct to the other models at 500mb also. If one were to take a blend of them all at this point in time, we have a wall to wall winter coming with continental polar air locked in over the central US. Low in a nice spot over the Aleutians, a +1 sigma PNA. It would be insane to see it all work out.

Maybe end up with a SW flow pattern somehow?

I think the El Niño of 09-10 had a SW flow pattern. Snowy winter, not incredible cold.

Averaged top 5 cold in my area. It was pretty incredible to me but I'm in eastern Oklahoma.

Central CONUS finally looking like Autumn...

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/US.png

 

 

 

By the way, did anyone catch the episode on TWC last night and see the Live interview with Dr. Judah Cohen regarding the Siberian Snow Pack Theory??? It's interesting to see TWC picking up on this theory and showcasing it.

 

Anyhow, GFS looking active/wintry for the Plains in the extended. Something the CFS has been showing and ending the month of October on a rather chilly note. GFS/EURO not in agreement with the system coming into the northern Rockies and western Gulf. GFS has Gulf system coming north into the central CONUS, meanwhile, the EURO has the storm meandering in the Gulf thru Day 10. What a system this could end up becoming if the northern piece phases with the southern energy...good sign for the new LRC pattern. Much different pattern than last year. Fast forward to Winter, these type of scenarios can produce blockbuster storms.

The fact that it's even a possibility at this time of year to form a hurricane down there is a pretty neat thing for both the pattern and the energy the Gulf would likely still be able to produce throughout Dec-Feb. This may very well reinforce the western trough idea you have mentioned also for winter. TS Bill and the pattern that followed it this summer may hold some key ideas here. I think it's pretty similar.

I like this Quote: "The nose of above normal into central nebraska reflects a rockies/plains trof and panhandle "hook" type storms that form in tx panhandle and hook northeast."

 

 

The Euro Ensembles are picking up on this pattern as the new LRC develops as we close out October and head into November. I've also been watching the CFS model and its consistently illustrating a trough over the west/central CONUS and ridge over the East. We may have a strong SE ridge this season if this plays out.

If there was a 2 thumbs up button on here I'd give it to this post! I'd be tickled to death with that pattern as long as the SE ridge gets squashed a little and those storms jump on I35 in West Texas and stay there until they hit eastern Oklahoma!

Here is an interesting article regarding the "Blob"...

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3154

 

 

The new JMA Monthlies came in overnight and they are showing a warm November pretty much for the entire nation. Dec-Jan is when the model sees's the GOA trough, southern branch coming out of the south and Ridging over the top.

 

JAMSTEC also came out with it's new October run. It's still showing a colder look for the Plains and SE with wet conditions centered in the Plains/Midwest.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1oct2015.gif

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2016.1oct2015.gif

 

Look at Cali, getting pounded with precip. SST's still looking the same but a little cooler near the NW NAMER coastline from last month. This is the second month in a row it's cooled this part of the NE PAC which is why I think the colder air will be centered farther back west this year, unlike last year. The Cali/Baja coastline still torchy which should fuel storm systems. Modiki El Nino still on track in central PACIFIC.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2016.1oct2015.gif

Great post. Looks like no cold November though. :-( I hope December through March are exciting though. Glad to see the useful anomalies continuing their slide westward also. I think a guaranteed -NAO would make things even better for all of us.

Just for fun, here's CPC's winter outlook. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/2015-16-winter-outlook

I don't even know why I wasted the data to click that link. I knew what it said without looking. Lol. If CPC ever shows more negative anomalies than positive ones in a winter forecast, I'll eat my hat. :-)

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/654380304610820096/photo/1

 

Nice tweet from Ryan Maue. If the warmest model shows this, wonder what all of the others would do if they could go out that far?

Enough with the ridging already.

I second that. Screw ridging. Tired of sweating.

So I have a question...

 

What are you guys thoughts on the qbo and how it may effect the winter? It's something I really don't know enough about and have a hard time understanding it's purpose the way I've seen it explained. Thanks in advance.

Both 76-77 and 77-78 were weak ninos, though.

Yeah. I'm aware of that. It would just be really cool to see something like that happen.

You may want one of these....

Yes sir! I remember that day very well. Will most definitely take a repeat.

I'll take one of those about 350 miles further south. :-)

local met posted this morning that the 30 day outlook from the Euro has storms emerging onto the Plains on 10/20, 10/25, 10/27, 10/30, 11/7, and 11/10!! What a pattern that would be!!

Repeat that about 5 times or until it has snowed me to oblivion this winter and I will be happy. That would be the most active pattern in a long time.