OKwx2k4

Good posts folks. It's not uncommon to hit another 80 plus reading or 3 here in NE OK before the end of the month but it gets substantially harder to do here in about 5 days or so. I just forget how warm October can be sometimes. I don't think it means much in the longer term. Just makes the cold flip that is coming seem a lot more drastic.

Waters are cooling significantly near Japan/East Asia and a tongue of colder waters is trying to stretch all the way across the Pacific towards Hawaii. The majority of Global Models are pointing out that a significant trough will develop just north of Hawaii and the SST's are lining up that way.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.10.8.2015.gif

 

 

 

The classic winters of 1976-77 & 1977-78 had this active Pacific storm train set up. Will be interesting if it transpires this season.

I think my heart started palpitating a little when I read 1976-77 and 1977-78. Lol. It would be my dream to live through a winter like those 2.

Excellent!

I think that looks about right. If we break the 2.0 mark, we shouldn't stay there for too long.

I really need a decent winter to distract me from this total disaster of a Husker season. Its Bill Callahan 2.0 here and if I at least get some snow it will fell better.

Yeah. I feel for you guys. I wish Nebraska would have never left the Big 12. Chin up though, could be like what Arkansas is going through this year. Lol

Both are fun and in the right pattern, my location usually gets a piece of the Colorado lows as well. I like the southern plains lows a little more because of the dynamics of the storms they often produce and when also in the right pattern they can move a little slower (sometimes a lot slower) and tend to produce more snowfall. Haven't had a good closed low through here in a couple of winters though.

Yeah. I'd say!!

00z GFS showing a pattern that could be possible as a piece of Pacific energy rides along the southern edge of the Hudson Bay vortex and tugs down the chilliest air of the season. Just need the EURO to come on board. I touched on this just yesterday...manifestation??? HA!

Anything is possible right now in the extended. I imagine model skill scores are probably headed toward the crapper with the storm heading to Alaska and all that going on. Lol

I would agree with that. This year isnt a typical El Nino. I think there will be powerful systems. Where will they track is the big question.

Yeah. I have to agree. I don't have any reason to be afraid it won't be a great year. I seriously doubt that this el nino will be anything like 57-58. I think a year like 1977-78 is becoming a possibility. I think it was warm through october.

Storm Oho crashing into southern Alaska kinda has us screwed for the time being. Putting the cool down into late month now.

I am on board with the idea that the end of winter will be more normal/cold/snowy. I have no confidence in a below normal december and january in the upper midwest. The CFSv2 has been adamant about above normal through the winter. Hard to ignore.

Tom pretty well explained my thoughts on the CFSv2. At longer leads one has to admit it is pretty terrible. Example being September. It literally forecast the total opposite of what happened. I take all seasonal forecasting with a grain of salt. I have a great amount of fun looking at them though. I even still buy all of the almanacs every year. There have been cold El Nino winters but most people seem to discredit anything before 1979 nowadays. All we see are warm, warmer and warmest. Not saying I know at all what is going to happen. This is the first year in around the last 5 that I literally have no real idea. I think it will be awesome to learn from and watch it unfold.

It's that time of year again...who's ready for some Snow??? While Postseason Baseball is in session and Hockey season begins, I always get excited this time of year when the seasons begin to change and my favorite time of year is around the corner...Winter!

 

I've been reviewing various climate models and except for the CFSv2, the majority of them are signing the same tune. Knowing the CFSv2's bias, I believe as we get closer to December the model will correct its typical errors. We'll just have to see how it plays out.

 

The LRC is just beginning to unfold so I don't want to get to detailed as to where I believe the worst of winter will be or where the storm track will end up transpiring. What we can do is use some of the modeling that we have in our arsenal and try to figure that out.

 

Below you will find the last ensemble run of the CFSv2 for the next 45 days which will basically cover the 1st cycle of the LRC. The majority of this precip falls from the last 10 days of October through Nov 21st. I believe once we begin to see the significant cooling which is coming around mid month, the jet will begin to energize and shift south causing storminess. All of us would like to see some wound up systems. Let's see if we have the blocking and systems in place to create a stormy pattern.

 

Will we get a 3-Peat of warm waters in the NE PAC that will create that wavy jet stream tugging down arctic air??? Is the Modiki El Nino going to fuel the southern branch??? Where will the long term long-wave troughs and ridges set up this Winter??? Still to early to be exact but some respected models say we may have an interesting Winter from the Plains to the Lakes. This time, I think the Plains will have their fair share of Winter weather.

 

Let's Discuss!

Let's repeat that precip pattern in mid-late December at about 28 degrees please. I'm ready for a long hard winter. Most definitely my favorite time of year also.

Hopefully, there will be a lot of southern plains action, followed by low pressure turning up into the lakes.

Let's combine the two. Superbomb anyone? :-)

Brazilian Meteogram for Chicago...

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Screen_Shot_2015_10_07_at_11_58_03_AM.png

That's pretty cool. Wonder where he gets those from. I've never found them. Anyway, looks like they may make freezing a couple of times this winter. Lol

Just wanted to start this to discuss various events, model guidance, etc.. Considering the El Nino and what it usually implies for OK/TX/KS, there's a pretty good chance we'll have a lot to discuss.

Yeah, darn, so sick of nice warm fall weather. I'd rather have 33/rain every day.

I work in a hot environment. I'm predisposed to hate being warm. Hasn't rained here since a sprinkle on the 20th of September so yeah, I'm pretty much over the warm and sunny stuff. Lol

Somebody put me to sleep and wake me up in December! Tired of it warming back up already.

I drove through OK last week on I-40/44, to and from Arizona, wondering how many Pan Handle Hook's we see this Winter! Should be an interesting Winter season down by your region with the El Nino this year.

That drive down 40 to AZ is one of the most boring ever to me. Lol. I like my hills and trees too much.

Should be. If the PNA and/or AO deliver the cold down here this year it's going to be lights out all winter. Hopefully not literally. Lol.

Thank you. That's pretty cool.

It's interesting to see that the CFS for December looking similar to Dec 2013. A massive snow pack should be in place hugging NW NAMER by the start of December and a tell-tale sign that the map below might be an indication of where the coldest temps may end up laying out.

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/03/basis00/namk/weas/15120100_0300.gif

 

Remember the overall temp departures in 2013-14??? I'll post that map below. I'm not comparing the overall winter's temps from 2013-14, but the way all the cold that year built up in NW NAMER and spilled south unlike last year when it was much farther east. Look at what the CFS has been showing consistently in NW NAMER...

 

Mid Dec...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/03/basis00/namk/tmax/15121100_0300.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/03/basis00/namk/weas/15121100_0300.gif

 

Late December on Christmas Eve...

.

=http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/03/basis00/namk/tmax/15122412_0300.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/03/basis00/namk/weas/15122412_0300.gif

 

 

 

I think the model may be picking up at less ridging hugging the NW NAMER coast line which will spill colder air farther back west into the Plains this season. JAMSTEC model has showed this last run for the Dec-Feb period....

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1sep2015.gif

 

Interesting clues to where we may be heading as Winter inches closer and the first flakes of Snow just around the corner!

Where can I find the weatheronline maps?

Thanks! I appreciate it!

Welcome to the forums! I have family that live in Mt Ida, Arkansas and have experienced some fantastic weather events while visiting out there. I hope to see you posting often, and would encourage you to share this forum with your friends!

Get involved and have fun! We are glad to have you.

 

Will do and thank you!

Couple of questions...

1. How do I change the time to my time?

2. How do I post images from an android device?

Thanks in advance.

Hello all. I'm new here and just wanted to say thanks for accepting me into your group. I love discussing the weather and hope that I can contribute to the discussions as well as learn many new things. I'm from the Ozarks portion of Eastern Oklahoma to give perspective of where I'm from and the types of weather in my area for all who are curious.