lowlandsnow

12 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Still showing phantom snow in the south sound? 

Yes around .5 inch of phantom snow near Tacoma

Vancouver and Whatcom county pick up a few inches on the latest 18z ecmwf

The NAM 00z shows about 2 inches of snow for Seattle on Monday night at temps that are below freezing

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

GEFS - The Dalles. Big outlier. Mean temp -15.1c and note all of the members -15c to -18c. Interesting!

What temp did the last ecmwf mean get to?

Not much of a pullback so far on the GEFS

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I mean……

I think that's just phantom snow though given it is supposed to fall Saturday night

New article from Cliff Mass

Cliff Mass Weather Blog

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

The ensemble mean showing subfreezing highs north of Portland in early November is really good even if it's slightly warmer than the 18z

Definitely but I would like to see some snow

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

GEFS is not bad at all, these are temps in the middle of the day

That's still worse than the 18z GEFS

Terrible GFS run for Washignton, GEFS so far is better

I think for the Puget Sound the best chances of snow will be next Thursday or Friday

850mb temps are significantly colder on this GEFS run but it won't matter if there is no precip

GEFS shows 850mb temps for Seattle between -6 and -7 beginning at hour 153 so definitely an improvement over the 18z  

Is -6 C considered the 850 temp needed for lowland snow?

Improvement in the 18z GEFS is much more important than a good 18z gfs run

GEFS looks slightly improved

The 18z GEFS looks better than the 12z

How much of that increase is due to more human caused fires though?

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Very doubtful. The homeless population has certainly increased since then, but there's no PNW cold wave mortality precedent for the mortality of last year's heat wave in Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver. Like nothing else really even comes remotely close. And it technically still gets cold enough every winter for the most vulnerable populations to potentially die from exposure/hypothermia, and yet last year's heat wave was orders of magnitude more deadly.

Alright maybe not deadlier than June 2021 but there has not been any arctic air comparable to 1989 in the last decade for instance December 2021 only recorded a 17-degree low at Seatac while February 1989 recorded a high of 18 on the 2nd and a low of 7 on the 4th. 

If February 1989 happened today it would likely cause more deaths than June 2021.

What's the record low max on Thursday at Seatac?

Now there closer but at hour 336 it was 5 vs 12+

High of around 25 in Seattle on the 6th

Portland does really well not as much snow in Seattle though

58 minutes ago, Phil said:

Definitely good news. More extent will increase net albedo even if volume is a more representative metric for overall health of the ice pack.

Huge storm will hit the Barents soon so sea ice will probably take a hit