lowlandsnow

Bellingham and Vancouver are in the single digits while Portland isn't even below freezing

Slight shift east on EURO

NAM is cold

16 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It feels so especially cruel. January 2020 actually had a weaker airmass; this current one is one of the stronger ones of this century.

Time is running out on seeing single digits again in my lifetime. I already feel sad enough that I've thus far missed out on that, but think about all the poor kids with no memories of the deepish cold in Dec 2008 and Nov 2010 like I do, who only have the warm-coded snow events of the last decade.

At least I might be able to knock off that 'foot in one storm' item from my bucket list this weekend, if all goes right.

I think us younger folks have a good chance at seeing single digits some time 

The ICON is running

Just now, Phil said:

More westerly momentum over the NPAC and Beaufort/AK blocking evacuates toward Siberia faster, so there’s less southward push on the TPV.

Is there any hope left?

6 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

On a positive note, today for the first time in over a decade arctic sea ice extent is above the 2000s average and the 21st lowest on record

VISHOP (nipr.ac.jp)

Maybe the rapid sea ice growth for this time of year caused the models to fail

On a positive note, today for the first time in over a decade arctic sea ice extent is above the 2000s average and the 21st lowest on record

VISHOP (nipr.ac.jp)

Just now, westcoastexpat said:

The most disappointing part of the 00Z ECMWF is the duration - basically gives us two days of subfreezing before a return above 32.

Really curious to see the ensembles when they come out.

I think at this point the deterministic runs matter more not to say the ensembles aren't important though

Just now, Front Ranger said:

It would be one of the all-time rug pull fake outs if this thing turned into a decent Arctic event from here.

Not the point of no return, but it's very rare to see all models trend so poorly this close (within 5 days) and then recover.

There is still the ICON all hope should not be lost yet

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

What are people’s opinion on this? Is there time for a turnaround or are we now at a point of no return with these solutions? This was a gut punch. 

The trend is definitely not our friend. Just terrible.

What do you think was a worse rug pull 2024 or 2020?

Is the Graphcast out yet?

WINTER IS CANCELLED

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Well how about that.  All three models are quite snowy for Seattle this weekend.  I like the ECMWF the best by far though.

What? Very little snow for Seattle

There is still hope maybe the ICON will verify

The cave happened during the 18z this run is nearly identical to the 18z control

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

I’m not sure how this is a cave at all

Same

2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

The ridge looks better on the Euro than GEM I think this will be a decent run from Portland north

The storm is definitely further south

The ridge looks better on the Euro than GEM I think this will be a decent run from Portland north

Definitely better than the GFS

I think I know what happened as soon as Tim got his snowblower out of the shed this morning the models trended warmer and snowier. All we need is for the snowblower to go back in the shed.

GEFS is much better, it's coming

It's over, winter is cancelled