Jaycee_CHI

Seems like these Severe WX setups are taking similar tracks to the snowstorms earlier this winter. 
 

Chicago just can’t get a win with the setups! Luckily we’re not in a drought or anything, but boring weather has really been our signature so far.
 

The same area of Missouri and Southern Iowa are under en enhanced risk for days on end, but the system just doesn’t move east afterwards. Looks like a crazy outbreak is coming though for you guys out there though! This is literally the most intense I’ve ever seen this look : 

10 hours ago, Tom said:

100% agree with your comments...my cousin sent me a Snapchat video of the brown grass, no leaves, cloudy skies and I just don't miss that at all.  Makes you freaking depressed!

Yep I know you hated it just as much as me too you’re lucky you got to escape!!

Yeah the forecast isn’t great, just more cold rain and highs in the 40s. If we don’t break the cycle in the coming weeks I might actually lose my mind lol 

I hate the month of March so, so much lol. The temperatures are always mentally unstable, which in turn makes me mentally unstable like don’t give me a week of 70s, then be 30 and 90 mph wind for 3 weeks straight like what is this?!? It’s also just brown, and ugly. The worst. 

I’d do anything to get those 70 degree temps back, the only time I’ll take snow is if it’s over 12” and then it warms up by the end of the week, otherwise it’s just gross this time of year imo. 

That said, I feel like this isn’t going to happen. All the long range forecasts I’ve seen are just average or below average temperatures. It just needs to be May already pleaseeee

So glad someone has started doing long range forecasts like this that aren’t just for winter!!  I’d actually have to agree with his selected areas, although I think more of North Central IL should be included too. 
 

The outbreak of February 27th had 10 tornadoes in the Chicago Metro alone. So crazy! The city has somewhat became a magnet for tornadoes the past few years. Hoping for another potent severe wx season, can’t wait to get some time-lapses and shutter-lightning pics

[Courtesy Barry Butler Photography]:

3 hours ago, Tom said:

@Jaycee_CHI was living in the Wrigleyville area iirc where it dumped snow.

OMG YES ONE OF MY FAVORITE STORMS EVER!

20 hours ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

Chicagodome too! It’s the same thing here, riding the edge. I’m not confident we’ll get a lot yet. Sounds like a rich get richer setup imo, but I’m happy to be proven wrong! 

I was sadly right. Absolute bust here, it rained all day and heavily. It rained all year last year too, starting to feel impossible to get a good storm here nowadays! 

7 minutes ago, Tom said:

How much do you have so far?

About 3-5” here too I’d say? I need to go back out and look I’m just being lazy we were under some heavier banding it looks like so I’d say it’s a safe bet.

i am worried about the warm air displayed on the HRRR. It looks like it’s one of the few doing it but if that’s true we’re going to maybe get an inch more and then have it become a sloppy mess like last storm. Realllyyyy hope the other models are right this time! 

5 hours ago, Naptownwx said:

Yeah this is what I’m worried about! It has it going to almost all rain at some point too

Either way, it’s pretty outside right now, and we did better than last storm already so I guess I can’t be too upset! Looking forward to getting some good pictures today  

10 minutes ago, Pjjanthony said:

Someone turned the Omadome on, but I have inside information that it is going to be turned off later tonight. Expect around 7-8 inches.

Chicagodome too! It’s the same thing here, riding the edge. I’m not confident we’ll get a lot yet. Sounds like a rich get richer setup imo, but I’m happy to be proven wrong! 

Models showing rain here again?! Well find your shocked colored crayon and color me with it! 
 

Seriously though I actually do think that’s plausible, it’s kinda been the story over the past few years for the Chicago area. I’m just hoping to get a good shoot in, those pictures in Iowa from the last storm looked incredible, hoping for something similar here!
 

Anyways, based on what I’ve gathered, here’s my prediction:

Chicago area: 1-3” because rain 

Des Moines: 19” because always

The rest of Iowa: 8” because it’s Iowa

Omaha: [ERROR 404]

Central NebraskaWx : 12” somehow because our lord and savior loves him

We got maybe 2” yesterday. I’m so nervous about this one going NW too and getting rain again, would be so typical for us honestly! 

37 minutes ago, Bumblin Bman09 said:

Same up in the Gurnee, IL area.  Hoping the Friday/Saturday storm brings more whiteness.  

Awww  if it was 5 degrees colder we’d probably have some amazing totals right now! Fingers crossed for this next one, hope we aren’t too far west, if we get a snownut hole around us I’m literally going to scream

11 minutes ago, StupidFlanders said:

Woke up to not much snow on the ground. Light wet snow. I'm in Forest Park, IL right next to Oak Park. It's been raining most of the AM and we are right on the line of rain/snow for the radars but sadly getting the rain.

Wish it was snow. Here's to the weekend storm, I guess.

Saaaame. 5 miles west it’s snowing, but rain here! I’m so sad  hopefully it changes over again but I’m not holding my breath!

1 hour ago, Minny_Weather said:

I was just wondering where you went yesterday lol

Hi don’t mind me I’m just here to have my heart broken with a nice 33 and rain while 10 miles west of me gets 12”  

1 hour ago, Sciascia said:

LOT P&C for Poplar Grove is 7-15 potential inches. Gonna be fun to see what unfolds.

Oooo that’s awesome! Is that where you’re from??

Im in Lemont, and as usual, we’re riding along the edge. I think you guys should do amazing though!! 

Also, if I’m reading the radar correctly, it looks like the lead band is setting up further southeast than it was supposed to as of the models yesterday — the NAM looks like it’s picked it up too. I was in a small area that picked up about 2” on Saturday, and somehow it’s still on the ground here, so hoping it’ll help maybe? I guess we’ll find out soon!  

Okay Omaha take your dome back please!  

Chicago is absolutely riding the edge for this, which sucks because I was planning on doing a photo shoot with the big flakes flying! 
 

It’s definitely a nowcast event for sure with where the low ends up tracking around here, but hoping they at least give us a WWA. Otherwise, definitely not our storm. I feel the same as you guys in KC, at least we can just FOMO together

Omfgggg I’m realizing why I stopped looking at models for so long lmao. WHAT A MESS!!! Im literally riding the line on this storm, a shift of 10 miles can literally change everything! I HATE THIS

I’m not one to question my sensei @Tom, but I surprisingly think I might be okay where I’m at! I’m pretty far south of Chicago, p sure I’m around the same latitude as the most beautiful town in the world, Gary, Indiana. 
 

Also afaik, the NAM is actually consistent the past few days. I think maybeeee the Canadian has been the only one that’s been close? It’s such a tough forecast, but to think this storm will miss me to the south?! in this economy? The one where we’ve been 33 and rain in the actual winter months?? Idkkkk lol just seems… wrong. 

Tbh, I could care less about accumulation really, I’d be more sad to miss out on seeing how heavy this snow actually is!!! Looks so wild — regardless, we bought wine and edibles in prep for an all girls weekend here with a few friends from the city, so regardless if we all get snowed in together my weekend will be fun  

Feels cool to look at models again, it’s been a minute!! 
 

I really hope this happens somehow, this looks like some insane snowfall rates, and if I can score some thunder snow I’ll be in heaven! 
 

As a Cali native, this is absolutely amazing to see! I forgot it was possible for this area to be green and snow covered, so pretty!

Additionally, I was woken up around 1 am to the loudest clap(s) of thunder ever. All the car alarms were going off on my street, and I was able to get this next strike on video! I literally can’t wait for severe wx season, hoping I get some good pics this year with my new camera!  

For those who read @Tom’s post about ORD having 17.8”, you also have to realize how large the Chicago metro area is. Also, I’m not saying they’re liars, butttt I think whoever works at ORD hypes their totals. Even with severe weather, you’ll see 60mph wind gusts recorded everywhere then ORD is like “97 MPH WINDGUST RECORDED BUILDINGS CURRENTLY FLYING”. It’s weird But i assume northern burbs have actually gotten closer to that total, whereas the southern side of town (hi it’s me), has gotten less than 10”. I think we’ve had maybe like, idk, 7” total? Lmao. It’s literally THE least snowy winter I can ever remember in Chicago.
 

OH. And not only that, we’ve gotten hit by every system. But I kid you not, since December, it has poured rain, and been 34 degrees EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Like yes I hate shoveling and stuff but omg 34 and rain EVERYTIME? Barf. 

Anyways lol.  I think it’d be foolish for anyone in my immediate area to think we’ll get anything other than 33 and rain again. It’s insane how the cutoff of snow seems to be on the Wisconsin border every single storm for the past 3 months. I have a feeling the 18z EURO run that @Clinton posted above is the exact track for this storm. It would honestly be way more odd for it not to be at this point

I just went grocery shopping with my boyfriend and there are literal lines to just get in the aisles lol. Aren’t we only supposed to get 3-5” of snow?!

I legitimately don’t remember this kind of panic in Chicago ever. Am I missing something?! Lol this seems so extra!