Poulsbo Snowman

Well, Mark Nelsen has 1 snowflake for Saturday on his 7 day for PDX. With all the exciting talk on the forum I thought I'd see more? Of course it's much better than Accuweather's 48 degrees! Good grief! 

He lost the other ones. 

I'm here.  Just lurking...

Seattle special weather statement:

WAZ001-503>519-021230-SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-EVERETT AND VICINITY-SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-TACOMA AREA-ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-OLYMPICS-EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-347 PM PST SAT FEB 1 2014...MUCH COLDER WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...A MARKED COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEASTTHURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS AN AIR MASS WITH ORIGINS IN THE YUKONSPREADS INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON.THE MORE NOTABLE TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY ANDCONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE COLDEST WEATHER EXPECTED AROUNDTHE MIDDLE OF LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURESWILL RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. OVERTHE LOWLANDS...THIS MEANS THAT MORNING LOWS AROUND WEDNESDAY ANDTHURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WHILE HIGHTEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK WILL BE COMMON.WINDY FRASER OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY ANDCONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN RESULTS IN BRISKNORTHEAST WINDS FROM SUMAS AND BELLINGHAM OUT PAST THE SAN JUANISLANDS...WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH COMMON. WIND AND COLDTEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLEDIGITS. FRASER OUTFLOW ALSO LEADS TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OVERTHE NORTHWEST OLYMPIC PENINSULA. ANOTHER WINDY LOCATION WOULD BEFROM STEVENS AND SNOQUALMIE PASSES WEST INTO THE CASCADEFOOTHILLS...WHERE GUSTY EAST WINDS COULD OCCUR AT TIMES NEXTWEEK.LASTLY...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAYEVENING TO EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS WILL BE GETTINGDRIER...LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF SNOW AND KEEPING AMOUNTS QUITELIGHT.CHECK BACK THIS WEEKEND FOR UPDATES ON THE ANTICIPATED COLDWEATHER NEXT WEEK.

Has anyone ever stopped to consider the remarkable lack of female weather enthusiasts? 

Too many ways to deal with this statement--and none of them are good...

The only thing for sure this year is that the whole West Coast is in the midst of a winter drought.  There's been both cold and torching, but dry.

Venn diagram that.

Meteograms my friend, meteograms.

You're right.  I was just thinking they would be easy to find on the forum--but I hear you.

It would be so cool if these ensembles could be kept in one place--you know, you can read the 00 after the 18 after the 12, etc.  It would be so easy to make comparisons then.

I'm just not very sophistimicated.

I need a cigarette ... Wait, I don't smoke...  

You need to wait until afterwards for the smoke.

Pretty close...Snow...AKA Windy...AKA Swift.

I don't think it's Windy.  He would have simply said, "score!!!!"

First thing that comes to mind is when was the last time we had two arctic blasts that were dry in the same winter?

Yeah.  It's kind of like the winter had a vasectomy.

Does it come in XXXXL? 

He rips on everyone else for being realistic.     He brings it on himself to some degree.   Dealing in reality is always the best way to go when trying to understand nature.

I don't think it's an issue with him being realistic or dealing with reality.  Let's face it--many are on here in the winter months because they like snow--nothing wrong with that.  And he interprets the models and other information he has at his disposal in such a manner that demonstrates a way to get what many most of the board wants.  He seldom says, "It's going to do this" or anything of the sort.  Rather, he provides a roadmap, if you will, of a process which could ultimately deliver the goods.

There's nothing wrong with that--and I don't think he needs to be put in his place for his efforts.  That said, I know most of the board gets along with him, and it's not necessarily ill-will that's directed to him.  But certainly can appear that way even if not intended.

I think he (and others who put in the effort) should get a pass.  I love reading his posts--and often times, you have good info yourself.  I would hate to see him run off (or anyone for that matter) simply because a few choose to dismiss his efforts.

On a lighter note, it looks like the Euro is behaving!

The way the models have trended... and given his super confident predictions... we might not see Jim back on here until August.

 

Too bad that it has to be so extreme with him.   This is the problem with being so incredibly positive about something that doesn't work that way.    You crash hard when you have to deal with reality.

The problem isn't his predictions or uncooperative weather.  It's people making sure he knows, at the end of the day, he's going to be wrong--which is really easy to do out here.  All you have to do is argue climatology while playing the devils advocate with the Euro's overhead coverage just for good measure--85 percent of the time one can be right and then simply say "told you so" while mocking him until the cows come home.

But really, what is accomplished?  The capacity to point to him and say he's wrong?  I would rather have him discuss the positive aspects (and yes, the negative too) because it's clear he really likes what he's doing--and he's pretty doggone good at it.   But we all know it's way too easy to be irresponsible with other people's feelings while sitting behind a keyboard--which is why I'm very very careful about what I post.  If I give up too much of my soul over here, someone will take advantage of that weakness--just like they did with him.

I would rather eat glass. 

1916 or 1893 would work fine.

Yes, either one would make me sick of the snow!     

I hope it snows so much the first week of February that I get sick of it.

What a thing of beauty.  Blocked up to the pole.  This is our chance.  I hope we can hit the pay station this time.

 

If that verifies it appears Cal will finally get some much needed southern branch rainfall.  It is interesting to note the placement of the massive positive anomalies is nearly identical to what the ECMWF ensemble has been showing.

As I recall, the Euro and GFS were well aligned back in December--in fact, you could have used the ensemble means as overlays for one another at one point--they were that close.  And they appear to be aligning well again.  I'm willing to bet on the cold at this point--we just need some moisture now to go with it.

Not sure what compelled myself and a friend to do so but we ended up in my truck on the way down south to Crown point @ 930 last night.

 

Stopped in PDX for some food and then headed east on 84 and arrived @ Crown Point around 115 am, I parked my truck as far as possible from the vista house to see how hard it would be to walk there. ( keep in mind that it was my buddy's first time ) and had never until last night been to Crown Point nor experienced a wind event there.

 

After Parking and turning off the engine we both could immediately feel gusts in the 55-60 mph range and had the truck rocking back and forth ( He was freaking out a bit ) and asked me several times if the truck was going to roll or flip over LMAO

 

I looked at my buddy and said " I didn't drive down here for you to sit in the truck " we both got out and walked, albeit " in a difficult manner towards the vista house trying to keep our footing and as we got within 10 feet of the vista house the wind gusts became extremely strong and walking in any form was a distant memory, we were finally able to grab the railing with our backs to the wind and proceeded to get " Gorge Blasted " for about 6 mins before neither one of us could stand it anymore.

 

The combination of low pressure, high wind gusts and lowered body temperature was something to behold, my head still hurts now as a result of that crazy stunt. Feels like someone put my head in a vise and squeezed.

 

Now I know how Keely Chalmers felt

 

Highest gust I recorded while there was 81mph

Cool story!  I experienced the wrath of Super-Typhoon Flo in 1990 while at Yokosuka, Japan--she arrived 2 days before my son.  To make a long story short, I went outside in the middle of the night and was brought down by the winds--and had to do the low crawl to get back inside.  At the time, I was about 27 years old, 5' 11", 225 pounds.  Never felt anything like that.  Don't know if I want to do it again. 

I don't have to spend time here, I forecast for a living. Won't bother me any.

It would bother me.  I like all of the pros who come onboard.  Can always learn something from the experts.  How often do boards have the privilege of having communicating directly with experts?

Ever try to talk directly to Pete Carroll?  Here, we can have the equivalent of that.

I love all the good stuff that is consistently showing up after the resolution change.

Too bad it isn't true.

Yep, I've been told my **** the world attitude is quite endearing. 

LOL.  No intervention.... Yet.

I made it here finally!

BTW, interesting weather out at 360 hours.  Hehe.