Poulsbo Snowman

Gotta love the ridge bridge.

Gotta love model riding.  If we all knew what was going to happen 5 days for now, my wife would have me working on a honeydo list.

Oops.  That was in my cache I think.  I was going to say something about this last night.   LOL.

13 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The GEM 850mb loop... that pink blob has no southward push as Rob mentioned.  And it seems like all models tend to be too aggressive in the 5-10 day range with cold air push southward.  

Third time this has happened with the GFS.  It will be back tomorrow by this time.

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

I thought icon looked bad

The icon is fine.

8 minutes ago, iFred said:

Had to undo a MySQL patch. The site is being hit by what I can assume are LLM crawlers for ByteDance and CommonCrawl, all at once. They're hitting some older pages that are causing a stuck pid. Drained traffic, did the roll back, checked, and here we are.

Phil?

5 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Friends, siblings, neighbors... big deep breath. LOL

Right now we have an amazing Euro 12 and 18z, we have a GFS that has clawed its way back after a brief relapse, and we have had consistently good GEM solutions, with one exception.

Things are good. Enjoy it. GEM will come to their senses once they get battered and bruised out on the mean streets of Torchlandistan.

We're in trouble if the GEM sticks with this change and the Euro starts leaning its way. A very real possibility. But also the GEM could come back. A very real possibility. OR something we haven't seen forecasted could happen, probably the most likely possibility. lol

Don't need the voice of reason after that GFS run.  I haven't even had a cigarette yet.

3 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Gonna be a fun night of model riding!  

Maybe.

I've been gone for a few minutes.  Anything of interest to track?

I feel dirty.

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Might as well shoot for the 50 burger at this point. 

A masterpiece entitled, "BEYOND THE PEPTO"

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I call it the windshield wiper effect since it’s easier to say and describes the back/forth variability well, but in trying to explain it I actually made it worse.  

You're very quotable.  Keep 'em coming.  Still, WTF.

1 minute ago, Phil said:

When there’s a threshold in the pattern progression where tiny changes lead to a huge divergence in outcomes, guidance can waffle back/forth between outcomes.

LOL.  I got that in the first instance.  I just had to bang my head for a minute while I considered what you were saying,

1 minute ago, Phil said:

It’s possible new ingested data will produce a massive shift across guidance.

It’s also possible it’s simply noise/windshield wiper vacillation in solutions due to inflection points of uncertainty (this has been the case thus far).

"It’s also possible it’s simply noise/windshield wiper vacillation in solutions due to inflection points of uncertainty (this has been the case thus far)."

WTF?

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

That's solid.

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 5 (4-run trend)

That looks to be just a smidge colder.

24 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Was just looking at the ECMWF, what the hell is wrong with member 39

 

Edit: i now notice its hard to see it because it's color, it's dark red and way below everything especially around Jan 6th.

Edibles.

Let's focus on the weather and not who said what to who for how many jelly beans.  Since this is a weather forum, I think that should be the 90 percent of the posts, not 40 percent of fighting like siblings.

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Forty years ago (yikes!) RIGHT NOW the mother of all -EPO’s was taking hold! In keeping with the recent animal motif, I remember riding with my dad on a snowy/windy 24th to Olney to pick up a kitten for my sister for Xmas. The cat, Noel, ended up living until New Year’s Day 2000, which a few days earlier was modeled to be VERY cold!

Extra points for anyone here whose actually been to Olney.

I fondly remember this.  I was in Boise with single digit day time highs, and negative below zero temps, with more than a foot of the hardest snow you will ever see on the ground.  It lasted, I believe until around just after New Years.   As the warm air approached, it snowed huge flakes--bigger than I have ever seen for about 2 hours--then transitioned to heavy rain.  My parents basement was flooded with more than a foot of water from the melting snow and rain.   They moved out of the house 2 years later.

Maybe it's best to move on about mourning about pets--we all do it because they're family--and move on to the upcoming weather.  No need to measure penis sizes right now.  

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Anything interesting beyond this one frame?

You should see hour 600.

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10

That might be Kold.

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Sorry I haven't been around as often later for 00z runs. I've been pimpin', and pimpin' ain't easy.

Nah. Bowling. Lots of practice now that my vertigo is gone. Not being able to bowl for almost 23 years, so trying to get my timing right, footwork, release on the ball, etc. I was average 218-222. Right now I'm about 215, so pleasantly surprised and really thankful. I'm hoping to get back into regional tournaments and be highly competitive. With that being said....

 

Does anyone want 00z re-caps? or nah?

I was a 194 kinda guy until I blew my meniscus and ACL playing old man basketball.  Then co-vid arrived.  I have not bowled in 5 years.  I guess I need to get back out!

I'm a nah.  

Started as rain.  Now have huge, wet snowflakes falling.  If there's enough, it should make for a good snowman!