Yerf

Looks like LOT, IWX, and MKE are all in agreement. lOT holding off any posts until midnight

By tomorrow morning (when the northern stream is on shore) we should have a really good idea on what this storm will do

The thermal profiles for the GFS and euro are the same which gives me some confidence

I don't think this is an ice storm. I think models will tighten up on that

showing the 6-10 and 8-14 day temp and precip outlook

https://www.facebook.com/NWSChicago/photos/a.170461579677551.41001.164132806977095/833550730035296/?type=1&theater

The models are all over the place with the speed of the low. I think the GEM is too quick

From LOT THE CALI LOW WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT EAST AND NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE CLASH OF THE WARMER GULF AIR AND ARCTIC AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION LOOKS TO RESULT IN A DYNAMIC WINTER STORM SYSTEM. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION SNOW BAND EXPECTING TO SET UP BEHIND IT DUE TO A REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR AND STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE

Really looks like the cold air will settle in after this Sunday

Caplan

A local met in Chicago said the thunderstorm activity in the south may rob the storm of moisture as it heads north. I've never heard of that

WRF is spitting out 6-7 inches total accumulation for these counties

Just going to post that Tom! Looking good

I'm liking the GEFS ensembles

Skillings' RPM at noon had a ton of moisture with rain changing to snow around 5:00pm on Wednesday. Pretty good defo band just not a lot on the snow totals.

48hrs away and the models still having problems

LOT mentioned the strength of the downstream ridge which will limit how far east the low will go

Check out the GFS totals on this video. Fast forward to the 3:00 mark http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/forecast-snow-could-affect-christmas-eve-travel

I'll take this

From NWS MODELS...THEY HAVE CONSISTENTLY FORECAST A DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP. FOUR CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN 975MB OR DEEPER LOWS BY 12Z ON CHRISTMAS MORNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHEAST U.S. REGION

From LOT THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AS WELL AS RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST MIDWEEK...WITH COMPLICATIONS AS THE MODELS DEAL WITH PHASING THE SOUTHERN LOW WITH A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM. WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY

Something is brewing. It's nice to see relative model consistency

Wow. That storm for Christmas looks crazy. Definitely a change in the pattern boyos

What's the time frame for snow hitting N IL? Late afternoon?

I meant LES