FV-Mike

little over an inch of rain last night with the heavy storms. Lots of lightning 

Flakes are flying. Grass is covered. NE wind. Nice to see winter again. Even if it is for a short time

Final totals in Chicago area. O'hare almost to 7

It has been a while since we had 13- 14 inches on the ground. I know the closer you get to the lake the less but in an El nino year this has been a good week

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Sadly, this one will hurt for a lot of peeps in Chitown and southern burbs...however, my brother up north in Volo, IL got 8" and just to his west in Algonquin I saw a report of 11" and they never saw a switchover.  ORD officially ended up with 4.7" so far but could tack on some more today. 

@FV-Mike, did you do good?  Hopefully the wave thats forecast to develop this evening provides and nice fresh coating on top of the frozen glacier.

Yep did alright. Finished with 7 . West and north burbs did well

All snow now in Kane county

Had 30 mins of sleet mix. I am back to all snow

already at 4 inches. CHI into Wisconsin should do very well today

18 minutes ago, StupidFlanders said:

Accuweather still says 8-12 for me. But seeing 4-6 now. Disappointing...

 

Any hope this thing goes 12-16 for west burbs of Chicago?

my Grid for Geneva shows 7-15. ORD even has 6-13

Could someone post the 18Z GFS for points further East. Thanks!

19 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I think uiowa needs to cancel the men’s bball game tomorrow

LOT sticking with global models. 

The
forecast for this storm system continues to be handled best by
the more consistent global forecast models and ensembles
(especially the ECMWF and its ensemble members). We therefore
continue to steer the forecast in this direction. Currently, many
of the higher resolution models such as the HRRR, NAM and RAP
continue to be northern and warm outliers with the system, and
thus, their current iterations are not favored.

Anyone have a good memory of the 12/15/87 that they are comparing this too?

confidence continues to increase that this anomalously strong storm system (which bears a striking similarity to the heart attack snowstorm of Dec 15, 1987) will produce major impacts across much of northern IL into Saturday morning.

4 minutes ago, shakjen said:

Just did and they must not be buying into the northern shift. This last storm they waited until the day of to issue any headlines because they were worried about the NW shift and the rain mix. They haven't come out with the afternoon AFD yet explaining there reason.

yep very interesting. Extended south through I80 even down to Kankakee

Got to think  LOT will issue WSW this afternoon. 

LOT AFD

Uncertainty has increased with the next winter storm to impact the
area Friday into Saturday. Specifically, the operational runs of
many of the models have shifted northwest with the track of the
low and bring a considerable amount of rain into at least the
southeast third of the cwa, with the potential for a mix possibly
even into the southern Chicago Metro area. Interestingly, it
appears that the GFS and ECMWF operational runs are the farthest
northwest of just about all of their respective ensembles,
suggesting there is more support for a more southeastern track of
the low then the operational runs show.

They note the NW trend but caution it may be too far 

Heavy snow in the western burbs. Just today makes up for the lackluster season last year

Heaviest snow coming down atm. huge flakes

Lake, Kane and LaSalle counties now upgraded to WSW for the CHI area

Flying back to Chi from Florida on 1/8. Glad my Flight is early on Monday and not Tuesday!

LOT AFD: 

Looking out beyond day 7, for multiple model cycles in a
row, the ensemble means have consistently depicted the ejection
of an anomalously deep western trough into the Midwest. The pieces
could thus come together to support a strong synoptic system
affecting the region (irrespective of precip. types) early in the
first full work week of January. Medium-long range ensemble
guidance also has been consistent in an active and colder pattern
continuing through mid January, so there may eventually be some
bonafide winter weather threats to track. Stay tuned.

Long Range is looking better. I am just excited for the snow showers this Sunday!

57 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z NAM...

Like the wording from LOT

expectations are for a widespread precip
event across a vast majority of the forecast area Thursday night
and Friday morning. Precip type will be rain south of a Chicago to
Mendota line, with increasing chances for a transition to all
snow from north of Dixon to McHenry County. Where the cutoff in
the precip shield settles is a looming big question that will have
implications with how much (if any) accumulating snow occurs into
the northwest third of the CWA. Given the increasing signal in
guidance (especially EPS and CMCens) for accumulating snow and the
factors noted above, have increased snow probs with some minor
accumulations (<1") in the forecast late Thursday night into
Friday morning. While still a lower (~20%) chance exists for
several inches of accumulating snow in the aforementioned area,
this solution is no longer an outlier within the broader ensemble
of guidance. This is especially the case if the low-level
baroclinic zones further contracts and supports a band of f-gen in
a dynamically cooled thermal profile.

Fascinating post by NYC's forecast office. 

light snow falling. All roads and grass covered. no better way to kick off the season than a Sunday morning snowfall

Radar looks great for SE Iowa!