jcmcgaffey
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Posts posted by jcmcgaffey
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Wow that was a large image...
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This was the tab that surprised me. NOAA rarely posts 8-14 day hazards for our area especially for cold anomalies since it takes the perfect setup for the northwest.-
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NOAA CPC just updated and it sure looks chilly. It's been a long time since I have seen the 8-14 day outlook hazards outlook temps tab have much below temps risk at over 60% (at least a couple years). They just updated a little bit ago after changing it this morning. Haven't looked at any of the models so not sure what they saw in the models between last night and today that made them update again to add the increased risk of much below temps.
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Here are a couple videos from down along the Oregon coast earlier today. We were coming back from a family vacation and it worked out perfect to get a good storm on our last day. I have always wanted to watch a storm down along the coast and it was awesome. The videos are pretty amature as I am no professional. There were lots of amazing lightning strikes and bolts down onto the ocean and rocks but I was not able to get any shots of those. The high tides mixed with the low pressure was enough to start picking up a lot of large driftwood and flood the coastline a bit. A station at Oceanside recorded a 90mph gust which was close to where I took the videos.
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Pretty windy down here in Pacific City Oregon. There was a decent amount of thunder and lightning last night as well. Looks like the storm is heading further north than anticipated yesterday. They upgraded Seattle to high wind warning.
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Just a quick illustration of the ECMWF superiority at the micro-level. This happens all the time but I will use this morning as an example. I was looking at the radar last night with the storm rolling into Oregon and thought there is going to be a NW-SE c-zone over all of King County tomorrow morning. But the HRRR and the WRF showed it would be totally dry over the Seattle area this morning. I knew this was going to be wrong.
Great Post. I like seeing examples of the model differences throughout the year not just when there is the possibility of snow. Usually if there is a chance of an arctic outbreak or snow then there is a debate about the better models and what model picks up on certain details than others etc. There is also the rest of the year to see the differences in the models and which models pick up on which things best, not just during a few days/weeks out of the year. I like seeing these posts. Thanks.
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Time to start mowing here as well.
I took my daughter to Bellevue this morning and our trees up here are as advanced if not more than there... normally we are 2 weeks behind.
I think it has been as warm or warmer up here in the last month with more offshore flow and less fog.
I think you're right. I noticed the same thing coming down from Snoqualmie pass into Seattle on Sunday. The cottonwoods haven't started to leaf out yet here in Fremont. I always figured the length of day has the most effect on plants/trees blooming while weather has an affect as well but not as much. I think it is a combo of the two with the length of days having more of an affect. I have always been curious as to how much an effect the weather has on the blooming in the spring and the turning color of the leaves in the fall. I know it does but not sure of the extent. I guess the weather can speed up or delay things by a couple weeks depending on the extremity of the weather and the types of trees.
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Yeah, I think the economic prospects have improved some in recent years with the growth of tourism and breweries in the area, not to mention some tech startups. And the relative affordability of the housing market there helps.
My wife's family (grandparents and 5 uncles) moved down there from Seattle about 10-15 years ago to build custom homes as there were not as many opportunities up in Seattle at the time. They have had a lot of success since then and seem to not have any issues building and finding buyers. The place has changed immensely over the last decade and is a very nice area to vacation. The market has really picked up over the last couple years.
I like the weather down there, it is similar to east side of the Washington cascades like Leavenworth up to Winthrop. Most of there annual precipitation comes in the form of snow and the summer time is just passing thunderstorms. The last few holidays that we have gone down to visit they had large storms of over a foot of snow which made the holidays feel a little more real.
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Moving to Bend in three days! So happy to get out of eugene. This weekend has been a microcosm of this winter. More rain and wind to the north then more sun after a storm while we're stuck in fog down here.
I just got back yesterday from visiting my wife's family in Bend. It was sunny and dry most of the last 5 days with a few passing spurts of rain and in the mid 60s to low 70s. Once we got over the pass yesterday it was dumping rain and wind and a lot darker. My wife and I really like the Bend area (especially all the great beer)...
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It sucks we missed out on much snow this winter. But I have actually enjoyed this winter more than most winters. There have been a lot fewer rainy days and the days it rained it really has rained. I haven't had to put all the layers of clothes on the kids either because it's been so mild.
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Over 46" of rain so far this year. Currently the 9th wettest year on record. Should move up the list after this weekend.
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It appears we are going to be dealing with a Pineapple Express around the 10-12th of this month. What has followed 10 days to 3 weeks following a pineapple express in past history? QUE SNOW WIZARD
NOAA CPC also showing that timeframe as very wet and very warm. Looks like several bouts of the pineapple express:
Maybe we will still hit the 50" mark for the year.
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Good overview on the Climate Change Report (mostly related to the Northwest).
November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest
in West of the Rockies
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I remember the last few events over the last few years when the Canadian backed off an event while the others held steady the others finally caved in at the end. The next couple Canadian runs will be intriguing to see..
Also on a side note, not to beat a dead horse but I can't help but mention the difference in temp from SEA and where I live just 3 miles north of downtown Seattle (Ballard area). My low this morning was below freezing and yet SEA only managed 39. My area seems to typically be 5-8 degrees less than SEA for lows but seems to be a larger difference during the winter.