Sleather
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Posts posted by Sleather
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I had been planning one last backpacking trip to the Boundary Waters during the 1st week of Nov. The first week looks out.... Second week might be ok.... I've got good enough gear for the temps, but hate snowshoeing!
Flakes are flying near the Northwoods! Light snow is being reported just north of Duluth, MN....
Current conditions at Ely, Ely Municipal Airport (KELO) Lat: 47.82°NLon: 91.83°WElev: 1457ft.http://forecast.weather.gov/newimages/large/nsn.pngLight Snow
34°F
1°C
Humidity 100% Wind Speed NW 10 G 25 mph Barometer 29.82 in Dewpoint 34°F (1°C) Visibility 5.00 mi Wind Chill 26°F (-3°C) Last update 24 Oct 6:53 am CDTExtended Forecast for -
I was out at 5am for my hourly walk. Big under-performer for Plainfield, Il area. Maybe 2" at most. I doubt there will be much additional accumulation during the day. I don't even think it met advisory criteria here, let alone a warning.
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Wow, that's crazy.
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160317/12Z/f228/acc10_1snowmw.png
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160317/12Z/f228/24hkucherasnowmw.png
GFS has been showing variants of this event for quite a while now. It changes in track and intensity but it's almost always been there. Leads me to believe there may be something to it - even this far out. We'll see. I suspect it will get too warm for Chicagoland to experience a big snow storm.
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Hardly any snow in Plainfield - SW Chicagoland area. Maybe 1/2" or so. Glad I didn't put gas back into the snowblower.
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What a bust! The thing just fell apart
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Given snow ratios, that would be 20"+ for ORD...lol...only if it were 24 hours out! Now this storm has me seriously thinking of coming back home.
Pretty hard core, coming back to Chi-town for a snowstorm!
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At work in Lemont, Il it was snowing pretty hard and sticking - perhaps an inch or two on the ground.
After driving southwest on I-55 home to Plainfield, IL, the temps had risen a degree or two and the ground wasn't covered at all.
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LOT's AFD this morning notes both the uncertainty and magnitude of this system. I like the tongue-in-cheek humor "... somewhere between Wisconsin and Kentucky..."
"AS HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF AFDS...MODELS TEND TO
TREND NW WITH TIME AS THEY ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE STRONG CYCLONES LIKE
THIS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CAN ALSO HAVE A
TENDENCY TO BE TOO QUICK AND TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PHASING...AND THE
MAGNITUDE OF PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES IS KEY TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. HAVE UPPED POPS TO
CHANCE OVER SE HALF OF THE CWA AS A NOD TO THE JUMP TO THE NW IN
THE 00Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
MEANS. ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SOMEWHAT
MEAGER COLD AIR MASS ON THE NORTHWEST FLANKS OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEND ITSELF TO SOME P-TYPE ISSUES OR MORE OF A WET
SNOW...BUT THAT IS PROBABLY GETTING TOO BOGGED DOWN IN DETAILS
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. STILL A LOT OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM AND IT DOES WARRANT ATTENTION BECAUSE IT DOES HAVE
POTENTIAL TO BE LOADED WITH MOISTURE AND LAY DOWN A SWATH OF HEAVY
WIND DRIVEN SNOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WISCONSIN AND KENTUCKY." -
You didn't even use it in November?
I don't even own a snowblower, but could have used one a couple times.
I know after the sleet storm, snowblowers were useless at throwing that low ratio stuff.
Not even in November. Our snows have been few and far between with maximum amounts per snowfall around 2-3 inches. This last Valentines event was our biggest event of the year. We might have gotten 3". My snowbunny kids are bummed.
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Going to drain the gas out of the snowblower this weekend. Didn't use it once. Hardly even shoveled.
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Yep, Chicagoland is out of it. It's a Michiana snow show.
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Maybe an inch or two down around Joliet. Streets and driveways aren't covered. Yard still has grass showing.
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Wow. Plumes for Joliet have risen from abt 5" to abt 9" in the last six hours. I'm skeptical.
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ORD Snow Plume...
The Midway graph is a little lower. But, MDW still averages around 5". But, that average is pulled up quite a bit by one GFS outlier. I suspect Midway is in for 2-3". Ord maybe 4". Looks like the Wi-Il line will get the bulk of the snow. Still, a decent little event for this time of year.
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Typhoon Rule in play here for a potential gulf system and northern piece to phase into a "cutter" type system for the first part of November. 06z GFS shows the remnants of Typhoon Koppu south of Japan merging with a strong system to the north of Japan. Strong HP to the east funnels the system in a NE trajectory...following that a deep trough settles in over Japan. We'll need to watch this system coming out of the Gulf in the longer range.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015102206/gfs_z500_mslp_wpac_20.png
Gosh, what a nice website! Love discovering new sites like this one...
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I would like someone elses opinion. I'm comparing the GFS 12z maps from today for both Wunderground and College of Dupage sites for the Ely, Minnesota area. They are radically different renderings. For instance, hour 228 shows rain west of Ely on the Wunderground site. The College of Dupage site shows rain way south of Duluth. Now, I expect different systems to visualize the same data differently. But this seems way off. It's like I'm looking at different model runs. Is it a caching issue maybe ? I've cleared caches, logged off and back on, etc.
Of course, the question becomes: Which is correct?
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I set my DVR and recorded ABC 7 5pm newscast and their RPM model showed 17.1" at ORD. Phil Schwarz mentioned its usually the least conservative model...
I think ORD could hit 18-19" depending on LES.
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are we looking at 10-1 ratios or higher?
kmdw has cumulative ratios of 13:1
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Currently sitting around a campfire enjoying a few adult bevarges in the sprinkles with a temp of 39f, as I am tarp camping with my son... In Jan. We have 15f rated gear.. But still. Pics want load.. Too big
That's the only time worth camping! Too buggy otherwise.
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Interesting graphic posted on LOT site this morning:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/1415wintermid_impacts.png
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I alwayd use COD but can anyone get the 4kNam model working on their site ? Seems stuck on September....
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SPC just put up a mesoscale discussion: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0027.html
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Had to chuckle at LOT's Izzie. This mornings AFD:
"AT THIS POINT THE CHANCES OF THE LAS
VEGAS STRIP SEEING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS
CURRENTLY HIGHER THAN HERE IN OUR CWA..."-
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000
FXUS63 KLOT 110249
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
949 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
948 PM CDT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OF
INTEREST NOW MOVING ACROSS NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM IS EVEN PRODUCING
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO AT THIS TIME.
THE NEW 00 UTC NAM IS CURRENTLY ROLLING IN AND IS VERY CONCERNING
FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT. IT TRACKS THE LOWER
LEVEL CIRCULATION FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...INCLUDING
THE CHICAGO METRO AND RFD AREAS. ALSO GIVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
SLOWLY BEEN INCHING NORTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM...I CANNOT DISCOUNT
THE NAM SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A LOT GOING FOR
IT...WITH ALL MODELS EVEN INDICATING SOME UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING
ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH GOOD FGEN SETTING UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOWER/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THEREFORE...HEAVY SNOW...MAYBE EVEN WITH CONVECTION...IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN FORCING SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA.
IN SPITE OF ALL THIS...HOWEVER...RATHER THAN SHIFTING THE WATCH
NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE NORTHERN ILLINOIS...I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE NEW
00 UTC GLOBAL GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING
HEADLINES...TO ENSURE THAT A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION IS THE WAY TO
GO. AS IT STANDS...THE NAM IS THE FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM.
NOW THAT THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS ONSHORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...THE 00UTC RAOBS SHOULD BE SAMPLING IT NOW...SO THE
NEW GLOBAL GUIDANCE THIS EVENING SHOULD BEGIN TO GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE SYSTEM.
KJB
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February 8th-11th Major Snowstorm
in East of the Rockies
Posted
Pretty much of a bust down here in Plainfield, IL. My employer told everyone to work from home today but I think I'll just shovel the driveway and go to work. Not much more than 3-4 inches.