Sleather

Pretty much of a bust down here in Plainfield, IL. My employer told everyone to work from home today but I think I'll just shovel the driveway and go to work. Not much more than 3-4 inches.

I had been planning one last backpacking trip to the Boundary Waters during the 1st week of Nov. The first week looks out.... Second week might be ok.... I've got good enough gear for the temps, but hate snowshoeing!

I was out at 5am for my hourly walk. Big under-performer for Plainfield, Il area. Maybe 2" at most. I doubt there will be much additional accumulation during the day. I don't even think it met advisory criteria here, let alone a warning.

GFS has been showing variants of this event for quite a while now. It changes in track and intensity but it's almost always been there. Leads me to believe there may be something to it - even this far out. We'll see. I suspect it will get too warm for Chicagoland to experience a big snow storm.

Hardly any snow in Plainfield - SW Chicagoland area. Maybe 1/2" or so. Glad I didn't put gas back into the snowblower.

What a bust! The thing just fell apart

Pretty hard core, coming back to Chi-town for a snowstorm!

At work in Lemont, Il it was snowing pretty hard and sticking - perhaps an inch or two on the ground. After driving southwest on I-55 home to Plainfield, IL, the temps had risen a degree or two and the ground wasn't covered at all.

LOT's AFD this morning notes both the uncertainty and magnitude of this system. I like the tongue-in-cheek humor "... somewhere between Wisconsin and Kentucky..." "AS HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF AFDS...MODELS TEND TO TREND NW WITH TIME AS THEY ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE STRONG CYCLONES LIKE THIS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CAN ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE TOO QUICK AND TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PHASING...AND THE MAGNITUDE OF PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES IS KEY TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. HAVE UPPED POPS TO CHANCE OVER SE HALF OF THE CWA AS A NOD TO THE JUMP TO THE NW IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES MEANS. ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SOMEWHAT MEAGER COLD AIR MASS ON THE NORTHWEST FLANKS OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD LEND ITSELF TO SOME P-TYPE ISSUES OR MORE OF A WET SNOW...BUT THAT IS PROBABLY GETTING TOO BOGGED DOWN IN DETAILS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. STILL A LOT OF TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AND IT DOES WARRANT ATTENTION BECAUSE IT DOES HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE LOADED WITH MOISTURE AND LAY DOWN A SWATH OF HEAVY WIND DRIVEN SNOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WISCONSIN AND KENTUCKY."

Not even in November. Our snows have been few and far between with maximum amounts per snowfall around 2-3 inches. This last Valentines event was our biggest event of the year. We might have gotten 3". My snowbunny kids are bummed.

Going to drain the gas out of the snowblower this weekend. Didn't use it once. Hardly even shoveled.

Yep, Chicagoland is out of it. It's a Michiana snow show.

Maybe an inch or two down around Joliet. Streets and driveways aren't covered. Yard still has grass showing.

Wow. Plumes for Joliet have risen from abt 5" to abt 9" in the last six hours. I'm skeptical.

Gosh, what a nice website! Love discovering new sites like this one...

I would like someone elses opinion. I'm comparing the GFS 12z maps from today for both Wunderground and College of Dupage sites for the Ely, Minnesota area. They are radically different renderings. For instance, hour 228 shows rain west of Ely on the Wunderground site. The College of Dupage site shows rain way south of Duluth. Now, I expect different systems to visualize the same data differently. But this seems way off. It's like I'm looking at different model runs. Is it a caching issue maybe ? I've cleared caches, logged off and back on, etc. Of course, the question becomes: Which is correct?

I think ORD could hit 18-19" depending on LES.

kmdw has cumulative ratios of 13:1

That's the only time worth camping! Too buggy otherwise.

Interesting graphic posted on LOT site this morning: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/1415wintermid_impacts.png

I alwayd use COD but can anyone get the 4kNam model working on their site ? Seems stuck on September....

SPC just put up a mesoscale discussion: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0027.html

Had to chuckle at LOT's Izzie. This mornings AFD: "AT THIS POINT THE CHANCES OF THE LAS VEGAS STRIP SEEING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS CURRENTLY HIGHER THAN HERE IN OUR CWA..."

000 FXUS63 KLOT 110249 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 949 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014 .DISCUSSION... 948 PM CDT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OF INTEREST NOW MOVING ACROSS NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM IS EVEN PRODUCING LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO AT THIS TIME. THE NEW 00 UTC NAM IS CURRENTLY ROLLING IN AND IS VERY CONCERNING FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT. IT TRACKS THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AND RFD AREAS. ALSO GIVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN INCHING NORTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM...I CANNOT DISCOUNT THE NAM SOLUTION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A LOT GOING FOR IT...WITH ALL MODELS EVEN INDICATING SOME UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH GOOD FGEN SETTING UP IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOWER/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...HEAVY SNOW...MAYBE EVEN WITH CONVECTION...IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN FORCING SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. IN SPITE OF ALL THIS...HOWEVER...RATHER THAN SHIFTING THE WATCH NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE NORTHERN ILLINOIS...I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE NEW 00 UTC GLOBAL GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING HEADLINES...TO ENSURE THAT A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION IS THE WAY TO GO. AS IT STANDS...THE NAM IS THE FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. NOW THAT THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS ONSHORE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...THE 00UTC RAOBS SHOULD BE SAMPLING IT NOW...SO THE NEW GLOBAL GUIDANCE THIS EVENING SHOULD BEGIN TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM. KJB &&