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.DISCUSSION... 905 PM CDT NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH THE CURRENT HEADLINES. THE LOW PRESSURE HAS PUSHED EAST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST TO NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION HAS TAKEN JUST A LITTLE LONGER TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER LOCAL RADAR INDICATES SEVERAL AREAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING AS WELL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-88 IN NORTHERN IL. DUE TO THE LOW TOPPED NATURE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS...REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW A TRANSITION TOWARDS SNOW LATER THIS EVENING. ONE ITEM THAT HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR TONIGHT WAS TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF SLT CHC THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 IN NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ONCE THE STEADY HEAVY SNOW GETS GOING...THAT GIVEN HOW UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS...THAT THUNDERSNOW MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN...JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO.

I just don't see how this will fill in fast enough to get any where near 6" lol.

The heaviest area of precip. is right over me, the question is what are the ratios? I know it'll be really powdery snow.

This maybe a huge bust... But hey we had a good one this season, just never really had that big one.

I am really like what HPC is suggesting 70 % of at least 4", 40% for 8", and a 10 % for 12". This may turn out to be a good one.

Well then.............. Edit* Not to angry, wasn't expecting the obscene 30" but this run was a joke compared to the NAM, lol I wouldn't even call it a "run" haha. We shall see, I'm still sticking to the 6-12" if I'm going to bust it mine as well be, what most likely is, the last storm of the season!

As of the last time I checked it was a 6-8" call for him. Now, he may increase them to 8-12". I'm not going to get to excited, and I'm going to stick with my 6-12" for now, bigger range until I see what other models are doing. Tom, said it best if it stays in the lower to upper 20's and we see these heavy bands I think 12" isn't out of the possibility MAYBE even 14" I still don't think we will hit the 16-24" I just think that's obscene as of now.

Basically bringing us back to reality for a bit, 0z is the key I guess!

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=winter_briefing New discussion worth a read.

Is anyone else still in a state of shock haha!? Tom, if half this verified we are still looking at a solid 6-12" lol, I say 6" to not destroy my hopes! But, NAM being an outlier makes me feel a little uneasy, I don't really know yet...

Lol I laughed so hard East Dubzz! Anyways, I'm not going to get to excited about this storm yet! But, oh my god! If this verified and we broke the record I would s**t myself! Lol seems ridiculous! But, I'm worried about mixing issues, my heart would be a little crushed if this went to far north and we got rain....

It is brutally cold out there irregardless, for some reason tonight I felt it more than I have in a while, maybe because it hasn't been this cold in a while. I love winter but this cold is down right ugly and may I say un welcomed this time of year?

Still coming down pretty heavily here.

Starting to die down a bit, next heavy band coming in a few minutes. This little break is letting the plows catch a break, about 5 minutes ago it was a white out. With all of this back building in Eastern/Central IA and a non-existent/minimal Southward Shift I may be able to hold onto the heavy bands till 11:30-12:00 a.m. hopefully will then get over 5". I am going to measure in a few minutes.

A pretty good snow event with some more back building out West and the Hawks winning 3-0 pretty good Saturday if you ask me

I think I'll end at 3" I have an inch down as of now.

Roads are terrible as of now, again have only seen 2 plows. Hopefully I can squeeze 5" out of this baby!

Anywhere North of I-80 looks good for some decent snow, I think the heaviest band might set up on the I-88 to I-90 corridors, if not a little South of them. Maybe a little higher performing than I was thinking, heavy snow at the moment, but not the heavy snow I like.

If it can slow down a bit we may get 3-5" out of it, looks like heavy bands are building back on Iowa. As long as we get a good layer to work with before the heavy bands come in, I think we may do pretty well. It looks like there is a lot of back building in Western Iowa and Eastern Nebraska as well.

The radar is supposedly showing heavy returns, yet I don't have a flake falling lol. This looks like a bust.

So we are thinking 1-3" now possibly 5", I think that's a stretch, especially if this is moving faster. It seems like a lot of the systems have been under estimated in speed. Is the jet stream stronger around here now?

True, Forbes is one of my favorite forecasters, Cantore is great as well, I was referring more to the Weather Channel mets who aren't as great at forecasting. That prediction does seem a little off, from the other runs we have seen today, but it would be fine by me. Maybe the Northern trend we are seeing is actually going to happen?

I don't really trust the weather channel lol.

Haha right by me 6-7" seems like a good amount I guess, I don't know it's really hard to tell what the models want to do with this. This is a huge jump North, almost unrealistic.

Not going to lie I laughed hysterically at the man smashing the computer hahaha, as well as the YOU GET NOTHING! I still dislike the way models are handling this system, but I have a feeling the Southern trend is the way to go. We have had our fair share of storms this winter, but to be honest if this isn't going to be 12" event I don't want it! Bold statement I know but that's the way I feel at this time of the year.