KMartin

Pretty jealous.  We don't get this kind of upper divergence often where I am.  I mean during the monsoon it's good for you guys for sure.  This is for tomorrow.  Shows a good area of upper divergence (winds spreading apart) and in that pink zone is where the most lift would be present.  Instability doesn't look too good, but the PVA and Upper Div looks good for some thunder reports.

http://www.theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum13.jpg

I'm liking these thunderstorm chances for you guys with these coming up storms ... I'm very jealous down here -

http://www.theweatherspace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/21414c.jpg
 

(TheWeatherSpace.com) – Three wind storms are coming to the Pacific Northwest Starting Saturday, with Saturday bringing a round of gusty (sometimes damaging) winds and a round of thunderstorms to Western Oregon and Washington, including the Willamette Valley to Puget Sound as the atmospheric river angles up and slams the area hard.
 

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Storms systems are lined up to continue to impact the Pacific Northwest.  Gusty winds in excess of 30+ mph will be likely across Western OR/WA on Saturday with gusts over 50+ mph in spots as the first front moves through.  Due to the position of the upper level dynamics, this front could harbor thunderstorms as well, moving in from southwest to northeast(northward) across the more populated major cities in the area.  Spokane you’ll get gusty west winds with each of these events so you are included.
 

The next system system hits on Sunday, 24 hours after the first.  This brings heavy rain and mountain snow to the region along with gusty winds.  Portland areas will see a consistent string of flooding rains then through Monday as the atmospheric river aims that area.
 

The third system hits on Tuesday, affecting the entire area with flooding rains, thunderstorms,  damaging winds, and heavy mountain snow.  This is a 1,2,3 punch type system

Looked at some internet forums for locals, seems like they got same amount in 92-92 but over a week instead of 3 days.

The guy who reported it and showed me pictures on my Facebook page of business said he moved there in 2011 and it's the most he's seen.  He talked to locals and it was also the most they've seen in any memory in a short amount of time.

Their DP was like in the low teens.  That lowered the snow-ratios nicely.

Bend OR -  OVER 2 FEET

I really like how you take time to explain what you know. Other folks on here have done similar at times. What do you think the precipitation and temperature are looking like tomorrow morning? I'm guessing I'll be above freezing by 10:00, but I really don't know. Temperatures up by Bellingham don't even look that cold.

Mainly below freezing till the evening into the overnight from Seattle northward ... then it's above freezing and the rain events start.

Here you can see why the snow exploded inside the band of moisture ... The green is the upper divergence split ... between that 'split' is the pink-outline zone of stronger upper divergence aloft, therefore strong lifting ...

http://www.theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum12.jpg

Olympia 4" .. .

Everywhere but the immediate coast looked to verify ...

http://www.theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum10.jpg

Hey JIm (SW)

So what do you guys think, using the 18Z GFS numbers that I posted awhile back in the thread.  Did the GFS do good so far?  -

http://www.theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum10.jpg

5" snow report Lewis County, WA

Hey some 2.0" reports showing up in Western Lewis County, WA and it's still snowing.

I went to strong with this. More like 2-4.

Still would have been in the lower margin, lol.  

First time in 10 years I believe for this:...Ice Storm Warning in effect until 10 PM PST Sunday for thePortland and Vancouver Metro areas...The National Weather Service in Portland has issued an Ice StormWarning which is in effect until 10 PM PST Sunday.AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONSWILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLYDISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOUMUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOURVEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILLLIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THATADD TO THE DANGER.

Issued mine last night at 9pm on my page - http://www.theweatherspace.com/2014/02/08/ice-storm-warning-12/

First time since starting I've ever done it for PDX

I would advise them to expand the Ice Storm Warning through PDX like I have it.  It's going to suck out there soon.

That looks like it'll move north to the sound.

http://www.theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum11.jpg

GFS might be right - http://www.theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum10.jpg

You think 1to 3 is still realistic today or you believe in the gfs? Thanks for your help.

That is some heavy echo action heading into SW WA so if that is snow and not virga then it seems possible.

Still virga over centralia... Anyway my guess would be heavy snow in Olympia and Tacoma, not much n Seattle. Tim might score as well.

Thanks, that helps to know where the saturation line is.

This is based of 18Z GFS Data through Sunday evening ... But it's not seeing the micro-climates across SW WA where the rain/snow line is now cutting Lewis County in half.

http://www.theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum10.jpg

Did not know you were up here.

Sorry was copying and pasting a report on my page from someone lol

Freezing rain/ pellets with mixed snow have begun here in Tualatin, OR. Started 5 minutes ago, exit 289.

Is this the northernmost extent of the precipitation or does continue moving north after this image?

Stays moving north into Canada.

At least down here the ARW is superior to the NMM or WRF.  So maybe it'll prove the same up there if it is correct.

Here is the WRF-ARW for like 2am or so tomorrow morning.  

Kind of shows similar returns to the advection map earlier. 

http://www.theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum9.jpg